The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Interesting piece on the Independents on the Pat Kenny show this morning on RTÉ.

Think back to 2002. Heady days.  Fianna Fáil on the point of a significant, but not comprehensive, political victory. Fine Gael recording one of it’s worst polls ever. Both Sinn Féin and the Green Party cementing themselves as more than fringe minority parties and transforming into small if credible opposition groups. And in amongst the figures most curious of all the rise of the Independents. 11% of the popular vote, 14 TDs of varying stripes (including Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party). This was a doubling and more of their 1997 figures. In 1997 Fianna Fáil had 77 seats, the Progressive Democrats 4 and it was necessary to have 4 Independents support them.

The reasons for the rise to 14 are varied. They were a means of punishing FG for perceived sins of omission during the campaign. The example of the previous intake who had propped up the FF/PD Coalition was still fresh in the memory. And at an election where Fianna Fáil appeared close to gaining an overall majority there was little to risk in voting for an alternative, any alternative.

And yet, counter-intuitively this relative success brought little in the way of reward. By contrast in 2002 with 81 FF seats and 8 PD seats the Independents,whether Fianna Fáil ‘gene pool’ or otherwise, were entirely superfluous to requirements. So it was farewell to them.

Well, not quite. In a sharp piece of political insurance Fianna Fáil maintained a degree of communication with the remaining three Independents who had previously supported them. Sensible while they remained dependent upon the PDs.

Now this isn’t an apologia for people to vote for Independents – in any event I come from a political background which generally strongly favours party over individual. But voting for the Independents is not as illogical or quixotic as it might usually be. The way the numbers are stacking up, particularly with a predicted Fianna Fáil and Progressive Democrat loss of seats and difficulties for Fine Gael and the Labour party in making them up, combined with the splintering of the vote to the left of the spectrum, and suddenly the Independents are back in play.

What is interesting is that the Independents appear not to have taken the time to promote this particular line. But it is their most potent weapon in the face of the charge that they would be impotent in the next Dáil.

Okay, the messages from the polls are…contradictory. And it’s difficult to be sure how events will pan out.  The Times poll on 26th of April saw the Independents at 6% down from 2% in their previous poll.

The Examiner poll released on the 4th of May had the Independents at 9% up 3%.

May 5th brought us the RedC poll which saw others on 7%. This remains steady since the previous poll in April and follows an interesting trend whereby each successive poll sees an overall decline, but in a curious one step backwards, half a step forward where they regain a little support.

In 1997 they received 6.9% of the first preference vote and gained 6 seats (excluding Joe Higgins). In 2002 they received 9.5% of the vote and saw those seats increase to 13 (again excluding the SP). Since the current figures see them closer to the former figure it’s more than probable that there will be a degree of attrition in two weeks time but some will remain or (perhaps – and this is a very big perhaps) new ones return. And again the paradox kicks in. As their numbers go down in the context of a tight electoral race their influence increases. So the numbers are weirdly good for those who remain if there is a significant cull.

It’s strange really. The Independents are marginal. But their potential capacity for power is dependent upon them being marginal. But the public share of the vote is declining for them. Which means that today their chance of having influence after May 24th is greater!  Which makes some sort of sense…

So, will the media latch onto this paradox and note that as we swerve to a hung Dáil Independents are becoming more rather than less important? It was said today on Pat Kenny that 40% of all Irish governments have been dependent upon Independents in some capacity. So that gives them a close to evens chance.

We’ll see…