The Cedar Lounge Revolution

It doesn’t matter. Keep that in mind. It really doesn’t matter.

Two days of debates on the big issues, and where do we stand? Well these, for what it’s worth, are my thoughts.

I didn’t catch the debate on Wednesday night between the “minor” party leaders, but through the wonders of the RTÉ website was able to see it yesterday.

That was an entertaining experience. The opening statements were good, but bland. The portentous swells of keyboard that introduced each speaker were beyond parodic. The spotlight on each speaker reminiscent of a thousand quiz shows. Mark Little was alright, although as the ‘debate’ developed there were times when it was clear that number of plates spinning in the air had tipped reached a critical point and were on the brink of falling to the floor (although I was amused by Mark Little’s invitation to Pat Rabbitte to come over to the table, saying ‘that would be great!’ in contrast to his rather more sober invitation to the others).

And what of the leaders? Well, Trevor Sargent was good but probably a little too confrontational. Passion is not synonymous with anger. But passion needs anger sometimes to give it definition. That’s a difficult trick to pull off…and it didn’t quite work. Gerry Adams was oddly, or perhaps not so oddly, detached. Franklittle has already referred to this and Paul Little (they must be related) has an interesting post on Dublin Opinion on the same topic. it’s a real problem for Sinn Féin, not that Gerry Adams is not a candidate in the election, that in itself isn’t the problem, simply that however well briefed he doesn’t appear to entirely read the context of the twenty-six counties polity.

Rabbitte played it fairly cleverly. Restrained, bar the rather fatuous “menopausal Paris Hilton” phrase. A smug smile playing around his lips. Of course, why wouldn’t it? Statistically he surely has the most likelihood of being Tanaiste in the next Dáil with whoever.

And as for McDowell? The most clever man in the room – allegedly. And a politician who I’ve always found extremely entertaining. But really. This was a performance which had one function only. Shore up the base, and shore it up by pressing the buttons that the base is particularly worried about…consequently we had to endure the crack about the ‘left, the far left and the leftovers’. Hardly an epigram on a par with Wilde, now is it? And then cracks against both the Greens and Sinn Féin. In some ways it was a remarkable performance. “Provo military know how” sold to Columbian narco-terrorists? Here he was with his ‘partner for peace’ in Northern Ireland, the ink hardly dry on the deal – and he was effectively branding him a terrorist. The sophistication of the political discourse in this polity is no doubt a source of awe in the rest of the world.

And the leaders debate? Stilted, poor, boring are words that have been used.

Commentators in the media seemed to believe this was a draw. Yet if one looked at floating voters interviewed for their response they almost entirely decided that Ahern has ‘won’. And would it make a difference to their voting decisions? It would not.

The general consensus of those I have talked to from a number of parties and groups who watched last nights debate was that Ahern was more commanding, more coherent and simply more effective. Kenny was reasonably good, but the programme he represents seemed lightweight. Moreover the experience that Ahern had counted strongly. I thought it was very noticeable how conversational a style Ahern adopted by the end of the debate whereas Kenny remained in ‘debate’ mode, right up to the final quotations from John F. Kennedy. That stiffness of persona may well play well with some. But it’s not entirely convincing.

And a couple of things struck me in particular. The Contract, of which we heard much, is a particularly glib idea. It really is nothing more than a rhetorical device, if only because it is absolutely impossible to fulfill. And perhaps it’s me, but that seems just entirely cynical. Moreover the hand waving about this being some sort of unique event is bizarre. Surely there is some element of contractual obligation in an election in any case. But it’s hardly a serious contract and it’s hardly even cynical to suggest that’s the way it goes.

Not that Ahern was great. He shifted into a more authoritative conversational style once the house issue had been parked. And that was to his benefit. But…to my mind he’d clearly lost some degree of fire. There was some sense that he was going through the motions, that the flashes of intellect and ability to command facts and figures were almost cursory demonstrations of his experience, crumbs scattered from the table to quash Kenny, but no more than that. His heart simply didn’t seem to be in it.

Now, what is the purpose of this exercise? None that I can see really. Our media try to present this as a sort of Presidential conflict, in a situation where under PRSTV it can’t be. The actual battles are largely in the constituencies. There is, of course, some influence from the top. Kenny has done a remarkable job of reworking Fine Gael as an electoral machine. Ahern’s previous popularity played well in the past. But, the broad brush approach to this isn’t going to work in terms of analysis. Talking to workers on one campaign in Dublin yesterday I was astounded at how some would give preferences to parties with radically different views to the one they were promoting (bar the PDs!). Even those with left ideological positions would be happy to nod right of centre or wherever. And why? Because they knew the candidate or whatever.

This is a small country. Politics, even for the ideological, can still be personal.

It doesn’t matter. It really doesn’t matter.