The Cedar Lounge Revolution

And so it rolls on… Yesterday the Greens bow out. Today I read in the Irish Independent that:

Fine Gael has been ridiculed in some quarters for its refusal during the past two weeks to admit defeat, but last night a spokesman said Mr Kenny could still become Taoiseach.

Er. No, no he couldn’t.

Sure, on paper it’s possible. But on paper it’s also possible that given a lever long enough I’ll move the sun.

Still, what is the source for this boundless, and seemingly unwarranted optimism?

Last night’s breakdown of the talks between Fianna Fail and the Greens was being seen within the party as total justification for Mr Kenny’s stance. “If there is a will among others to make this happen, we still think it can be done,” said a FG spokesman last night.

But here is the thing. The will ‘among others’ isn’t just one or two TDs. No, as Gene McKenna continues in the Independent…

The party has 51 TDs but would need Labour’s 20 plus the Greens’ six to get to 77, one less than the Fianna Fail total.

If the two PDs and four of the five independent TDS came on board, the combination would make the crucial 83 mark.

If the two PDs and four of the five Independent TDs (there’s a capital on that Independent) came on board… It sounds so easy, doesn’t it?

So all that has to be done is to persuade Labour to deal with the PDs, authors of co-location plan in health care. And also, by the by, to somehow manage to bring in in addition to FG-leaning Independent Michael Lowry (bad enough to see him resign, just about good enough to lash him to this rickety electoral construct) either Finian McGrath (hard to see him sit with the PDs), Tony Gregory (ditto), or the two Fianna Fáil ‘gene-pool’ Independents Jackie Healy-Rae (already pledged his troth to FF this week) and Beverley Cooper-Flynn (maybe) or some combination of same. And the Greens, who let it be remembered broke at least in some degree with FF on just the issue of colocation and the participation of the PDs (implicitly if not explicitly).

Yeah, that’ll work…

Meanwhile back in the real world McKenna notes that:

The fact that the PDs subsequently agreed to take part in putting together a new government with Fianna Fail appears to further set back Fine Gael’s chances of forming an alternative government.

But in this wonderful parallel universe of electoral politics the relative invisibility of the PDs led to the following…

Fine Gael insiders were noting the silence of the PDs in the past week as being potentially significant and still hoped that the numbers could add up for an alternative government.

I’ve a personal reason for studying government formation in this state closely. And it has to be said that the swirl of rumour and counter rumour has led me to the conclusion that no-one, outside of the participants knows what is going on, and often not even them.
Why did FF open up negotiations on Thursday with the PDs? Was it that they realised the GP/FF negotiations were going nowhere? Or was it simply another insurance policy, one of a raft that Ahern and FF appear to have taken out.

Meanwhile, lest we forget, Labour sits on the horizon. I’ve said it before. Their relative silence is most intriguing. But I fear that we will know next to nothing until Thursday, and probably not even then.

Labour leader Pat Rabbitte is expected to carry through on his commitment following the Mullingar Accord to support Enda Kenny for Taoiseach next week.

Mr Rabbitte has said repeatedly he does not expect to be involved in the formation of the next Government but that could all change if no Taoiseach is elected next week.

Rabbitte’s dedication to the Mullingar Accord is noble – perhaps. But it does make one wonder what sort of game is being played.