The Cedar Lounge Revolution

It is time, once more, to discuss SF and the state of SF today.Yesterday in the Irish Times Gerry Adams was reported speaking in Louth to Republicans.

He said that:

…Sinn Féin now needed to do things differently given the election outcome, at which the party won just four seats.

Mr Adams suggested that the party would raise the profile of its southern leaders and said Sinn Féin needed to be aware of the different political realities North and South and “shape our republicanism accordingly”.

He also identified a need to rejuvenate the party and expand its work in local communities.

He went on to say that:

…the election result was a disappointment, but said it was “not the blow our political opponents suggested” and the party was now engaged in a fightback.

He welcomed suggestions that Fianna Fáil might organise on an all-Ireland basis.

“In its own way it can help erode the partitionist mentality that pervades so much of Fianna Fáil’s politics,” he said, and the SDLP, not Sinn Féin, had most to fear from a Fianna Fáil presence in the North.

He also called on Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to honour the Belfast Agreement by giving representation in the Oireachtas to people from the North.

One of the things that has most impressed me is that in the wake of what was not a great election result was that that party has been willing to roll up the shirt sleeves and engage. The Senate elections showed a gritty pragmatism and determination to continue. That it also fitted into a realpolitik developing on the opposition benches in the Dáil is neither here nor there. The point is that despite a setback – although not quite the setback that the media or their opponents have sought to portray it – SF was clearly willing to continue in business. My own sense is that the Labour-Sinn Féin deal is a crucial turning point in the perception of Sinn Féin. There will continue to be a core group for who Sinn Féin remains anathema – that may take a generation to change. But, the outworkings of proportional representation, the necessity for government change, and the exemplary effects of government in the North are such that that group will become more isolated, particularly as a younger generation of Sinn Féin members and representatives develops. Still, this does not inevitably lead us to the sunny uplands of an ever increasing Sinn Féin representation in the Dáil.

Another thought. The recent IT poll is interesting, but P O’Neill did a fine job on IrishElection of parsing out the basic elements of it. These are, Fianna Fáil suffered enormously from the Provisional License fiasco. Fine Gael and Labour were given a perfect opportunity for increased visibility. Result? Fianna Fáil loses 9% or so, Fine Gael and Labour increase by a corresponding margin – and credit where credit is due, Rabbitte did a fine job that weekend of pushing a Labour line. That it is entirely meaningless in the context of a political environment where the next electoral contest is years away is key (a brilliant piece in the SBP on just this topic on Sunday). There is plenty of time for Fianna Fáil to grab back that support. Plenty of time for Labour (in particular) to grasp hold of and retain that increased vote share. And plenty of opportunity for Sinn Féin to build upon the core vote.

But let’s look at the fine detail. Sinn Féin has a solid 7% and has seen no change. Allied with the Sunday Business Post RedC polls that looks like a nice comfort zone. Particularly, and read the fine detail in a context where FFs losses in class terms have been heaviest amongst the C2DE voters (and intriguingly not at all amongst the ABC1 voters). That means votes are leaching leftwards. Perhaps it is sinking in that this Fianna Fáil government is unlikely to be like the last one. That the economic situation is more difficult and the rhetoric about steady as she goes actually means steady as she goes. Populism only goes so far and eventually people tend to wake up to reaity. Long term dynamic? Who knows. But again, votes from those groups are there to be taken by Sinn Féin. And that’s all Sinn Féin has to do across the life of this government, to prove that it is relevant, that it is an alternative electoral home for both the disenchanted left, disenchanted Greens and the disenchanted FF voting working class. Which is interesting because that actually poses a problem, a problem that has been at the centre of the efforts over the Summer by the Government to minimise Dáil speaking time. Sinn Féin, like it or not, is in competition with Fianna Fáil. One of the most startling aspects of the recent political situation was the way in which Fine Gael and Labour have both been willing to cede some time in the Dáil to Sinn Féin. This is not from the goodness of their hearts, but a solid political calculation that Sinn Féin (moreso on the part of FG than Labour it has to be acknowledged – Labour has, every once in a while, a Republican, or more often just a Green, arhythmia to its heartbeat) poses a greater threat to Fianna Fáil than it does to either of them. Even better – from their point of view – is the idea that Sinn Féin can act as a lightening rod for disaffected Green Party voters pulling left and radical votes away from that party in 2012.

[Incidentally the Greens aren't doing too poorly either with a solid 5%. Not bad for a party in government. But their tactic of being ever so slightly semi-detached and their 'wasn't us Guv, we didn't make the decisions, only had 6 TDs, couldn't get a better deal...' approach seems to be working. Still, I can't help feeling that that particular song is going to wear a bit thin sooner rather than later]

And returning to what Gerry Adams said, well, quite a lot of food for thought. For a start a recognition that acting as an all-Ireland party cannot mean acting as if the island was a single unitary whole is a good step forward. I’ll return to that in a moment. He is correct that the election vote was not quite the disaster that the media are keen to portray it as. Still. It wasn’t a ringing endorsement of the project either. The welcome for Fianna Fáil is mischievous, but the point about Oireachtas representation is important, because it demonstrates the cosmetic nature of the changes that FF proposes in organising in the North. Real representation is something that SF will have to fight for long and hard since the current and future occupants of Leinster House will be very very unwilling to cede any. How many polities genuinely are happy to share power?

In a way this process is now rife with contradiction. Fianna Fáil have to, by the logic of their own rhetoric, have a presence in the North. But to do so entails an enagement in a polity that will result in curious paradoxes. FF say they would not contest Westminster elections. Fair enough – SF don’t take their seats there. But SF do contest the UK General Elections. The Good Friday Agreement underpins the idea of some sort of representation in Leinster House. But if that is done that gives a further platform for Sinn Féin. The very thing that FF doesn’t want to do (incidentally I find it curious that FF is seeking alliances with the SDLP… one might expect that FF would be more interested in going for the hegemonic party of the working class, SF, if only to replicate its own power base in the South. The SDLP strikes me as more middle class. An odd fit is it not? And yes, it is true that alliances with SF might take much longer to forge, if they were ever possible, but still… the structural analysis remains the same).

Nor is this all one way in terms of the paradoxes. If FF were to seriously engage in the North it is possible that over time they would wrest support from Sinn Féin – although I’d tend to agree with Adams that the first casualty would be the SDLP. That might take years or that might take decades. But it could happen. If it did there is every possibility that this would seriously fragment the Nationalist vote and in doing so actually destabilise the emerging polity. Bad for Sinn Féin. Indeed. But potentially bad for everyone.

And here I want to touch on something that has struck me recently. The media narrative at the moment is one where SF is regarded as essentially having ‘lost’ in the South (despite the fact that it has more TDs than the late lamented WP did for most of its parliamentary existence). Curiously this is a narrative shared by both Eoghan Harris, Fianna Fáil and the Phoenix although there are subtle distinctions. The Phoenix reported on November 2nd that “the key message from an upcoming SF conference will be that SF is the left party south of the border but the ‘Nordies’ are anxious to curb their more excessive comrades in Dublin and other urban areas in the south, who regard government as a dirty word…the Nordies have now taken control of an organisational team for the south….”.

This contributes to the sense of the party as a ‘Northern party’. And furthermore a consequence of this is the implicit message that SF should retreat North – or as Harris puts it in a rather unlovely turn of phrase… “Sinn Fein in the South is left with the lumpen-proletarian scrapings of socialism, and the trendy obsessions of a few bourgeois Bohemians such as the Shell to Sea campaigners. And the increasingly anarchic agitations of these lumpens and Bohemians will alienate more and more working people who want a modern social democratic party” (thanks to Ed Hayes for pointing me to that article which dates from July in the Sunday Independent). By the way, more than one spoon full of cornflakes must have paused midway to mouths when readers were treated to the following:

In the North, Sinn Fein looks like a powerful party of the mainstream: down south it looks like a sidebar party of the powerless – not a numerous class in the Irish Republic. In the North, Sinn Fein is moving towards the social-democratic centre… If Sinn Fein in the North wants a noble project it should give up the pseudo-socialist revolution in the Irish Republic and start a real revolution in Northern Ireland. This is the task of making peace with the people who fear it the most. And if this strikes you as naive, I have two reasons for believing that Sinn Fein in the North could carry this project to a successful conclusion.

This vision of SF as a regional party – albeit one fairly well cemented into government in Stormont is quite interesting because it tells us as much about the ambitions of those who propose it as the idea itself. For Ahern and Fianna Fáil there are clear pluses from seeing SF diminished in the South. And so we have the shadowplay of FF organising in the North. I’m wondering how solid any FF presence will be in the North, but more broadly what we see is the idea that the North will always be a ‘region’ and that region will have regional parties. This isn’t unknown in other polities. Consider the Bavarian based CSU (part of the CDU) – an unhappy comparison perhaps, but one that no doubt is exercising the thoughts of at least some in FF and the SDLP. In either event SF stops being regarded as a ‘national’ force and retreats in the face of the greater strength of Fianna Fáil.

The problem is that this situation could actually develop. It is not unfeasible to see Sinn Féin lose more seats in the South, particularly in the context of an embedded peace. A partitionist mentality has evolved on both sides of the Border which has achieved a certain life of its own. And there is the actuality that political conditions are different, socio-political contexts and even cultural approaches have a distinctiveness in the North from the South. Sinn Féin as the hegemonic party of Northern nationalism could be a long term feature of Northern politics. But once more we find the issue of a ‘regional’ party nature of SF emerging. I think this ‘narrative’ is very dangerous for SF and to trace a path between the realities of a two polity island and the necessity to retain party integrity is vital to their future.

And yet. And yet. I don’t believe FF is serious about moving North, at least not yet, not now, just when the situation has stabilised. In truth FF needs SF to remain where it is, cemented into power and dealing with Paisley (and there may just be a hint of a more cynical calculation that in four or five years after the tough decisions emerge that SF will be weakened either by loss of popularity amongst the electorate in the North or by leftward splits).

And if FF isn’t serious now I find it even more unlikely that Brian Cowen will be exercised by the notion in the future. That being the case the North provides both exemplar and inspiration for the SF project.

Moreover I wonder if SF will lose seats next time out. As it stands they had good chances in at least three seats this year. Had the day gone well for them they might have had an increase of one or two on their then total. Not earth-shaking, but comfortable nonetheless. But those seats remain to be taken.

Whatever situation one chooses as the most likely, or least far-fetched, it seems to me that the next ten years are going to be particularly difficult for Sinn Féin both sides of the Border. In the North they have the responsiblity of Government. In the South the responsibility of being a minor oppposition party. Bridging that gap, and the psychological distance that that gap will engender is going to be difficult. On the one hand achievement, and controversy, almost as a matter of course. On the other back breaking struggle without clear light at the end of the tunnel in the short to medium term.

Yet, they’re not alone. Labour has finally decided to forge its own path, for the moment anyhow. The Green Party has, intriguingly, also forged something of an individual path within Government. There remain considerable opportunities as well as challenges.

That they seem to recognise this and to be facing up to those challenges is heartening for both their own sakes and that of the Irish left.

They aren’t the only game in town on the left. But they are crucial to the left game.