Absolutely true that premature optimism is always a problem. However, this optimism may not be premature. It doesn’t mean success is guaranteed or even necessarily close, but I’m beginning to sense that this might really have a positive conclusion. Might. Hope.

It has been an appalling three or four years, but what the solution/conclusion will be is still wide open. I can understand why anyone would remain cautious or even pessimistic. I too have trouble being optimistic, but there are times when I can actually see this whole thing turning out even better than it might have had everything gone according to plan in 2003. Hope.

I don’t know myself. The insurgency seems to be burning itself out to some degree. Mind you, looking at the Lebanon and other places it’s clear such things can continue for decades. So premature optimism is always a problem. What is clear is that what is emerging in the aftermath of an appalling three or four years is far far from the optimum or even near optimum solution Bush sought…

if they are they are surely making a mistake. Whatever has been going on has only been partly related to the increased number of American boots on the ground. Petraeus has been using the forces available to him with more imagination than his predecesors and there is no necessary reason why the insurgents *must* win in Iraq.

Assuming the Yanks are doing better, at least a bit, the key question is whether or not the Iraqi government is getting its act together while it has the chance.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080121/hayden2

Well, sort of. From what I gather, the coalition forces “clear” and the Iraqi forces “hold”. That enables everyone to (re)”build”. “Clear, hold, build” was General Petreaus’s COIN strategy from 2006.

I’ve only breezed through this, but if you’re interested here it is.
http://usacac.army.mil/cac/repository/materials/coin-fm3-24.pdf

I’m probably only slightly less skeptical than you. Those questions have been milling around in my head for weeks. I’ve even seen stories about refugees returning.

If the American media begins to build momentum for a success story it will undoubtedly help the Republicans if Obama is the Democrat’s nominee, but unless the Republicans nominate McCain I don’t think there’ll be much benefit against Clinton. Interestingly, so far the economy is a bigger issue with voters according to the polls than is the war. The economy stupid might be the Democrats’ best campaign slogan again.

Bush’s approval ratings are still in the mid 30 percent range.