The Cedar Lounge Revolution

An interesting reshuffle which quite honestly was nothing like the characterisation by Miriam Lord in the Irish Times as being: Captain Cowen shuffl[ing] around the deckchairs of radically unchanged crew. This was far from ‘radically unchanged’, it was instead a clear shift in generational and political terms, and simply because the faces remained the same did not indicate that relative positions, power balances and suchlike were constant.

Okay, we’re not talking Kremlinology (hey, what a pastime that used to be), but, there is something fascinating about the way in which it is as if the ice floes in Fianna Fáil are beginning to break up after the Ahern years. Those who have shuffled at or around the middle reaches of power are now - finally - getting a sniff of the highest offices of state. So we see Michael Martin given Foreign Affairs. Not a bad spot from which to mount a campaign for the top job. Except, I wonder if for him it is a case of shining too bright too soon. Certainly his star was in the descendant for the past three or four years. And while Foreign Affairs is a good brief, nonetheless it is also the potentially poisoned chalice of Lisbon. On the other hand Cowen was pretty clear that he saw Lisbon as his primary objective in the near future.

Meanwhile Dermot Ahern has shifted, well sideways, if not exactly down…

Apparently keen to depart foreign affairs, Dermot Ahern, who is a political heavyweight, takes over from Lenihan in justice, where his tough approach is likely to be appreciated.

Perhaps. And Seamus Brennan (class of ‘77) is finally gone, while Martin Cullen inexplicably hangs on by his fingernails. Really, what is it about him that every Taoiseach feels the urge to retain him? It can only be geography, surely?

Got to say that the enthusiasm we saw yesterday, if replicated within Fianna Fáil and their impressive electoral and campaign machine could certainly swing a vote. So, let’s hope everyone loves Brian as much as we are told…

Talking about Brian’s, what of Brian Lenihan, our new Minister of Finance. The IT argues that:

Cowen, clearly, has gambled that Lenihan will be able to make the tough decisions required, and “sell” unpalatable messages to the public better than either Dermot Ahern or Michael Martin could have done.

Well, with the times that are in it that too may be a poisoned chalice. No one likes a party pooper, and while things may not be quite at the inevitable final crisis of capitalism it’s not unreasonable to suggest that they’re not great either. Brian’s cheery demeanour will be put to the test sharpish, as will ours by extension.

And then there is Mary Coughlan. Genuinely one of the most liked people (and likable) Coughlan is a lucky politician in many ways having risen with relative ease. Still an interesting point is raised in the Irish Times:

The choice of the highly popular and able Coughlan is novel, and offers a welcome gender balance to Cowen, who has work to do to appeal to women voters, though it does leave open the possibility that Dublin voters might be less favourable to the party in the post-Ahern era.

Is a high-command of an Fianna Fáil government without Dublin representation a political Achilles heel he must deal with sooner or later? And consider that, in Cabinet, it is the non-FF representation, Ryan, Gormley and Harney who make up the Dublin numbers with only Hanafin (how her star has fallen) and Lenihan from the capital. These aren’t small things. One of the strengths of FF was the ability to retain seats in Dublin across the last decade. Barry Andrews as Minister of State for Children redresses that to some degree (as does Pat Carey as Government Chief Whip), but, he represents Dún Laoghaire and perhaps a specific demographic of FF voters. John Curran and others may well wonder when their day will come.

The Green Party Ministers and their Junior Minister were safe from the get go, as was - perhaps unfortunately - Mary Harney. Broader political considerations have cemented them into power. Tom Kitt, who has a surprisingly good reputation amongst the Green party, lost out. Presumably not cause and effect. Certainly the language was good between the two parties yesterday, and it was notable that Trevor Sargents position was reaffirmed on the same day, something that was not absolutely necessary, but perhaps gave comfort to the GP (some of whom were a bit leery about the ascension of Cowen to the top job).

The reality is that nothing significant will change. The Green project in its constrained form wil continue. Harney retains Health. The ideological positioning of the government, whatever Cowen’s obeisance to society and family over individuals will not deviate a whit from its current course. And consider the following:

Outlining his demand for public sector reform, Cowen told TDs, after he had named his ministerial team: “We all want better outcomes but the last decade has shown that money on its own will not achieve them.”

Plenty of room there for ‘outcomes’ not to our liking. Particularly in economically turbulent times.

And finally anyone watching the footage from the Dáil Chamber yesterday of Batt O’Keefe being given the position of Minister of Education will have noted his obvious delight at his elevation and the the remarkable swarms of TDs from all parties around him congratulating him. The Irish Times reported:

Mr O’Keeffe is one of Mr Cowen’s closest political confidantes but said his elevation came as a surprise to him. “I did not know until 4.45pm when the Taoiseach telephoned me. At that stage I had no clue what was going on. To be honest, I had half given up because I had not received a call the previous night,” he said.

I think, judging from his expression on the day, that that is about right. Still, no harm having a Taoiseach who can keep a (political) secret. Oh, hold on, we’ve had those before…