The Cowen effect: Part Deux! Or Fianna Fáil rises in the polls… May 15, 2008
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This evening one reads that: Poll brings good news for Taoiseach, Fianna Fáil
And, perhaps not unsurprisingly:
Fianna Fáil has received a boost with the departure of Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach and the election of Brian Cowen, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.
The poll also shows a big jump in the Government’s satisfaction rating, while the new Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, is ahead of the other party leaders.
The crucial figures:
The adjusted figures for party support, compared to the last Irish Times poll in January, are: Fianna Fáil, 42 per cent (up eight points); Fine Gael, 26 per cent (down five points); Labour, 15 per cent (up three points); Sinn Féin, 6 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 4 per cent (down two points); PDs, 1 per cent (down two points); and Independents/ others, 6 per cent (no change).
And most importantly:
The only time in the past six years that Fianna Fáil achieved 42 per cent in a TNS, mrbi Irish Times poll was immediately before the general election of last year.
And there you have it. Sans Ahern, the new regime in place we see that Fianna Fáil are back in poll position. That Cowen effect mentioned previously is certainly quite something, sending all before it scurrying away (bar the Labour party). And perhaps we can determine a couple of other points. Does the first slippage in the Green Party vote indicate a rump FF/PD vote finally returning home? And is the same evident in the SF vote? Or have those all important percentiles shifted towards the Labour Party for some unfathomable reason - since it escapes me what Labour has done in the last month or two that it didn’t do previously? Impossible to tell at this point, but it would suggest a vote for the GP (and to a lesser extent SF) which can split in a number of ways either back to FF or to Labour. For Fine Gael this is dismal news. All those hard won gains over the past year wiped away as if they never were. And FF moves back towards a position of dominance of the popular opinion. Useful that with Lisbon in the offing.
The poor old Progressive Democrats surely expected some fillip from the leadership contest. But no. Nothing. That can’t be good.
And following on the ruminations in the Phoenix this week the following is revealing:
Asked if they believed Bertie Ahern was right to resign from the Taoiseach’s office when he did, 70 per cent said he was right to resign while 24 per cent said he was wrong to resign and 6 per cent had no opinion.
I look forward to reading the IT for the full breakdown of information. Now that’s something I don’t say every day.
It would be rash to read too much into this poll - what with the Cowen honeymoon and all. And, as you say WBS, its hard to know why in particular Labour should be 15% in the poll. But, heck, take what you can get and make something of it. You have to go back to January 2006 to find Labour so close to Fine Gael - an 11% point gap. Today, in core points, the anti-conservative parties (Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens) are tied with Fine Gael. Something said by someone somewhere is trying to tell us something.
If the Left is to ever end its half-party(ies) status, it will have to vie with Fianna Fail as the main contender. There is room for only two alternative governments. Now, the Left is going through some angst these days trying to figure out what they stand for and where they should position themselves on the political slide rule. That is certainly both legitimate and necessary. But consider Fine Gael’s dilemna.
Whereas the Left’s resolution lies in being . . . well, Left, what is Fine Gael’s resolution? In policy orientation, they are incapable of presenting a qualitative alternative to Fianna Fail for the simple reason that there is no qualitative difference. Fine Gael occupy their own natural ground - a slightly conservative critique of the Fianna Fail project (in the recent debate over Labour’s private member’s motion on the economy, one Fine Gael TD called for a 2% cut throughout many sections of the public sector).
Therefore, while opposition parties attack the government, Labour and Sinn Fein (and the Greens from a different position) should also critique Fine Gael. Harshly. For Fine Gael and the Left will have to confront each other to decide who will play Fianna Fail in the finals. And this polls gives us some hope that we can win that first battle - if we have the ambition.
Sinn Fein at 6%. Although it has a protest element (anti-Lisbon,etc) since the GFA, S.F is hardly distinguishable from F.F. or Labour. When F.F. numbers go up, S.F’s go down, and vice versa. It seems headed for that dust-bin now occupied by the W.P. Or, like F.G., another atavistic appendage to the Irish body politic, a superfluous entity without function.
Spot on Michael. Gilmore should be going after Kenny as much if not more than he goes after Cowen. The only trouble of course, is that every time Labour attack the blueshirts it will be portrayed as ‘Gilmore cozies up to FF’. Still, has to be done.
Michael, that’s a good point. Still, I’d like to see something a bit more substantive as regards the reasons for Labour’s jump.
If you look at the historical data - Oct 07 15%; Jan 08 12%; May 08 15%; preceded by a year becalmed at or around 11% – then I think it makes more sense. This is still the post-election, post-Rabbitte, Gilmore bounce. And the three Gilmore polls are just about within the margin of error. It’s not that this is a jump, rather the last poll was a bit of a dip.
I’d like to think you’re right Damian.
WBS, we could toss around a number of reasons for Labour’s jump and some/all/part of some/part of all/ could be true and we’d still never know. I agree with your puzzlement - it’s not like Labour has been scorching the conservative earth with timely interventions and innovative initiatives. I note that Labour jumped 4% points immediately following the last election and that was before Rabbitte was elected. Prior to the last local election Labour averaged 16% in three polls but only came away with about 10% in the overall vote. Maybe there’s a small cohort out there who like the idea of voting for Labour, would prefer voting for Labour, but then shy away at the last moment. Your guess is as good as mine.
Damien, you’re right about attacks on Fine Gael being interpretated as cosying up to Fianna Fail. Of course, when you’re a half-party and the media/public consensus assumes you have to choose between the two of them, that’s what you get - a perverse two-sided zero-sum choice. If the attacks on Fine Gael were part of a larger critique of political conservatism which included Fianna Fail, PDs, IBEC, Marc Coleman, etc. - then Labour and the Left could establish its own autonomy, rather than strategy being seen as part of a process of choosing between which right-wing party they support after the next election.
Still, Michael, Damien is right when the polls are examined. There has been a slow rise in the Labour vote… so something must be getting through. That, though, makes the Commission a bit redundant, doesn’t it?
Stephen Collins in today’s IT suggests it might be Dublin - Labour benefiting from the absence of Bertie and the continuing weakness of Kenny in the capital. Makes some sense. Which would suggest that Labour’s mantra for the next four years should be Dublin, Dublin, Dublin.
No, WBS, I don’t think that makes the Commission redundant. The Commission’s remit is to examine all aspects of the Party’s organisational and political strategies. Therefore, it is all the more imperative that progressive strategies are put in place to take advantage of any poll rise. Otherwise, the numbers could be good but the Party wouldn’t be equipped to take advantage of them.
You could be right Damian and, if so, then Labour should lead an alliance to challenge for control over Dublin local authorities in the next local election and run the right-wing parties out of it. Now that would make interesting Left politics.
The Phoenix’s take on the Commission was very negative - although in fairness that would be the Phoenix’s take, wouldn’t it? But yes, those are important changes.
Dublin is certainly key to Labour’s fortunes. And I think you’re right Michael. FF may find a much softer left flank simultaneous to a weakening FG (as Damien suggests). A big opportunity for an alliance…