Adventurism in the 21st century – anyone can play… Georgia and Russia… and wine too. August 10, 2008
Posted by WorldbyStorm in International Politics.trackback
First let me direct you to the unfortunate timing of a piece in the Sunday Business Post magazine today extolling the virtues of Georgian wine.
The text is – perhaps – equally tricky… for we read that these are the…
Wines that came in from the cold
Growing up in a cold northwestern corner of the Soviet Union, Roman Kruglikov could hardly have dreamed that his future lay in selling wine from a country that had not existed since the Middle Ages to hundreds of thousands of former eastern bloc citizens in Ireland.
Nor could he imagine that this would be the weekend the long simmering Russian/Georgian conflict kicked off.
And the text seems to belong to an earlier, more innocent age.
In 2006, a trade war and wine embargo blew up between Georgia and Russia. Its roots were in the Russian Federation’s resentment of Georgia’s increasingly close relations with Nato and the EU, but took the form of a vicious fight over wine and gas.
That trade war may not be quite over, but Georgia has moved on. If it could not sell to its traditional market in Russia, it quickly needed to find new outlets. In Ireland, Kruglikov saw his opportunity and seized it, gaining an agency for the importation and distribution of Georgia’s wine in Britain and Ireland.
Yes, ‘not quite over’. Indeed.
Now, so much is being written about the latter issue that to add to the text mountain seems almost pointless. Almost, but not quite. Because a few thoughts, obvious and all as they are, come to mind.
There are no saints in this story.
Firstly let’s consider the remarkable example of realpolitic we’ve been treated to over the past number of days. Russia seems impervious to international opinion because, well, it is impervious to that opinion. It is able to project its power pretty much as it sees fit in that region, whatever about the noises off from the US, and indeed the UN.
That said there are other problems. It’s hard to argue – as the Russians did, strenuously as regards Kosovo – for the primacy of national borders and state sovereignty when you’re essentially trashing that concept in Georgia. And while it is true that under the Soviets South Ossetia was autonomous, it was autonomous within Georgia. Perhaps we can treat that as a legal fiction, as much else within the Soviets, but it does provide a precedent. Not entirely coincidentally has been the chorus of further noises off from Turkey and other states condemning Russian actions – they have more than a little to lose should this little escapade become a template for future conflicts.
But will it? Let’s be serious. Russia is, as with the US and China, essentially sui generis. Rather like the old joke about Steve Jobs having a reality distortion field around him which persuaded others of the utility of Apples way back when despite any facts to the contrary, Russia is able to shape and bend reality around itself, as does any great power ( I use the latter term loosely). The shell of Soviet ideology has been discarded entirely to be replaced by the arguably more useful one of nationalism. Sure, we’re not seeing an imperial (and how I dislike that term and the indiscriminate way it is applied in the contemporary era) Russia emerge, but we are seeing one which is willing to use considerable, indeed excessive (if the reports of the Russians bombing Georgian airfields are to be believed) force in order to make a clear point.
All that said the behaviour by Saakashavili and the Georgian government has been little short of insane. Particularly in the wake of Kosovo the actions during the week to ‘retake’ South Ossetia, and the shelling of Tshkinvali, smacked of a ludicrous misreading of the actual power politics of the situation.
If Saakshavili was under any illusion that either the US or NATO would support his little bout of adventurism he was rudely awakened by the limits of the possible. The US may well steer a resolution through the UN, but a Russian veto will probably put paid to it. Or alternatively events on the ground will have moved on. Indeed, already Georgia has announced a unilateral ceasefire which the Russians appear to have ignored, perhaps in order to teach the Georgians a further lesson in realpolitic and – perhaps getting two for the price of one – doing a little degrading of the Georgian military to prevent and dissuade any further actions.
There is a fairly good analysis in the Business Post by Seamus Martin (the Irish Times former Moscow correspondent, and IIRC someone sympathetic to the WP back in the day) on just this matter too . He suggests that:
Saakashvili has also gambled that the west will come to his aid militarily in any conflict with Russia. He is likely to lose that second bet. Concerted peace efforts by Europe, the US and the international community, in general, appear to be the only hope of avoiding catastrophic warfare in the area and the main catastrophe could be on the Georgian side.
He argues that this was directly timed to coincide with the Beijing Olympics. And that Saakashvili has been a rather less lustrous figure than he might pretend:
His democratic credentials were damaged by ill-treatment of opposition supporters, and media censorship then began to erode his support in the west. His continuous and sometimes baseless allegations of Russian aggression have not helped relations with Moscow, which has traditionally been a major trading partner.
And the calculation in his actions is such that it can only be termed adventurist.
Although technically part of Georgia, the two regions [Abkhazia and South Ossetia], with Russian help, gained de facto independence. The original ethnic reasons for separatism added to by the near collapse of Georgia’s economy. As the years passed, they settled into what has become known in international affairs as ‘frozen conflicts’.
The shelling of Tskhinvali has ensured that the conflict in South Ossetia is no longer frozen. While many former Soviet states, notably Russia itself, improved their economies and the living standards of their various peoples, Georgia descended into a tumult of clan and inter-ethnic hostilities upon the dissolution of the USSR.
The idea is abroad in certain left circles that this was cooked up by the US. I find that hard to credit – I think if blame can be apportioned we can look first and primarily to Tbilisi and then, for the massive over reaction, to Moscow. Firstly for the US this serves no purpose – if they wished to tweak the Russians nose … or is it tail… there are better places (and the US response to Kosovo can be in some respects regarded as in part having that characteristic), secondly to anyone other than Saakashvili and his group the response from Moscow was utterly predictable. Thirdly it is yet another denial of agency to individuals or states far from Washington. But fourthly, and tied into the second point, this is in fact, whatever the outcome in terms of diplomacy, a massive gain for for Russia. A state which has weathered the Chechen wars is one which simply does not have to have any concerns about the court of international public opinion. Far more important to them is to demonstrate the capability of the Russian state and the capacity to project its power. And what better than a conventional war? Swift and sharp, there is none of the messiness of intractable ethnic conflicts, or indeed the mire of an Iraq. Georgia will, as it is doing, get back in its box and behave (the idea that it might become a NATO member is now shot to pieces, and I would imagine any future ambitions it harbours as regards the EU are finished). South Ossetia will remain nearly entirely detached from it and its ties with Russia will become even closer. Russia will have burnished its credentials (and so will Medvedev) amongst at least some. And the international community will be shown up for the talking shop that it is. The weak will huddle closer to the strong, or try to pick sides between the great powers. And in some respects that’s no change at all. But to see it so nakedly displayed. Well, it’s educational.
It’s a nasty brutish world we live in. It’s just got a little bit worse.
That said there are other problems. It’s hard to argue – as the Russians did, strenuously as regards Kosovo – for the primacy of national borders and state sovereignty when you’re essentially trashing that concept in Georgia.
And did anyone else laugh at George W. Bush opining earnestly about the unlawfulness of invading and/or cutting off pieces of sovereign nations? (hello to both Iraq and Kosovo). And this is to say nothing of reality that the Russians are ‘merely’ treating the Caucuses in the same centuries-old traditional manner for them as the USA has Central and South America.
And I agree that the Georgian leader – the great white hope of Serious anglophone foreign policy muppets^H^H wonks everywhere – has just been shown up as an utter tool. Did he really think that his good friend GW was going to give a rat’s ass? Not likely. And the threat to withdraw half of his two thousand soldiers in Iraq in order to fight the Russians is unlikely to endear him to the White House further.
eamus Martin (the Irish Times former Moscow correspondent, and IIRC someone sympathetic to the WP back in the day)
Doesn’t it go without saying that he was probably WP-friendly?
Seriously, the IT has made itself the home of anti-”Irish Catholic nationalism” under three different guises now, by my reckoning: its first incarnation as a bastion of Unionism, its later populating with members of the WP and finally its composition of PD/FG free-market anglophile types. The Major would appear to have, intentionally or not, come through on his reported offer to London to be of some service.
Laugh? No… but it’s hugely ironic as you say.
I’d agree with what you’re saying her WBS. Actually The Sunday Times had the headline that best summed it up: Russia Strikes a blow at its fear of NATO encirclement.
I agree that this was in no way inspired by anyone outside Georgia, but the Russian definitely have used the opportunity to warn what they will and won’t tolerate. There are a large number of US troops very near oil and gas infrastructure that Russia is unhappy about. Also I think that the Russian army wants to show that it cannot be taken as lightly as people thought after the balls up of Chechyna at the start.
Your analysis is spot on – WbS – on my reckoning. If there is one cause for relief it is that Germany and France blocked the move by the US to offer Georgia immediate NATO membership. The UK as usual equivocated. Putin and the Russian nationalists will now exploit Tiblisi’s folly to the maximum. Whatever the short term outcome I we should be thinking what the longer term strategy should be for EU/Russian relations. On the one hand there should be a determined refusal to bow to bullying from Moscow (whether over energy or anything else). On the other hand the EU should be ready to offer Russia and all the European countries for whom there is no realistic prospect of full EU membership (that is all minus the balkans) a new arrangement which goes beyond mere “coopration” to some more limited form of sovereignty sharing. Putin may not be interested by the many democrats in Russia woukld certainly respond positively. It would also offer a framework for avoding any danger of geo-political power politics in Russia’s “near abroad.” Dare it say we need to think as imaginatively and strategically as the like of Jean Monnet did half a century and more ago.
I don’t know that I agree with the description of Moscow’s response as a “massive” overreaction, at least not by comparison to (roughly) analogous situations such as Clinton’s response to Milosevic’s adventures in Kosovo, or Israel’s response to Hezbollah’s attacks in 2006. So far most of the civilian casualties seem to be Ossetians hit by Georgia. It’s hard to sort out what’s really going on, though; most of the western media seem to be getting their reports from Tbilisi, who I wouldn’t trust as far as I could throw on this.
I think you can also forgive Moscow a little scepticism on Saak’s offer of a “ceasefire”. The last time he announced a ceasefire was on August 7th. His troops went in and levelled Tshkinvali on August 8th.
http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=cRl3qArJO-o see this please
Hello!
My relatives live both in Tskhinvali and Gori (my father). I have been
calling them all over these 3 days from Russia, where I’m now with my friends. Thanks God, all mine are alive and none wounded. Russian bombers were over Gori yesterday and day before yesterday, but they didn’t target civilian objects. The pictures you see on TV from there are showing only two damaged houses, which were hit by the gunshells exploded on the Georgian military base, which was attacked by Russians in fact. There are several people injured and 2 killed in these houses, but that was not by bombs directly. What Saakashvilly says about hundreds of civilians dead or injured is not correct. Maybe he is reported so, but in fact most of the injured and killed were at military base in that moment. Some of them were not military, but servicing that base, which is supporting Georgian troops in Tskhinvally.
How did this really happen(from the witnesses in Gori and Tskhinvally):
August 7, late night:
Two brigades about 6,500 soldiers (infantry and tanks) with American trainers, and with support of ground missles and artillery started the
attack of Tskhinvally. Later in the morning, the air strikes added to
this. All of them had an order to “clean out the separatists from the
region by the evening of 08/08 Friday latest”. What I think, it was a
plan to finish it during the Olympics openening, so that in the next
morning they could report a “victory over separatist in one day”, and
none of the media would be interested in how it was done, as most of the world was watching Olympics show in Bejing. I think that was arranged and planned with help of Mrs.Rice, who visited Georgia just some weeks ago.
August 8, morning: Half of Tskhinvally ruined, most of buildings are
under fire. Nobody evacuated. Bodies of men, women and children are on the streets (I have seen the videos, which no Western channels show)
Southern part of the city is under Georgian troops control. 500 russian peacekeepers and not shooting as they possibly have no order from Moscow. Georgians are shooting everyone they see, including
peacekeepers and children on the streets. I tried calling my cousine
there, but she declined my calls several times, later sent a text: “We
can’t speak in the basements, as they through granades to the houses and basements once they hear a phone call or talk”. Later, when she came toVladikavlaz,Russia, she described awful and freightening scenes of Georgian shooting children and women, firing them, raping little girls
after killing their mothers etc. It was a true nightmare in real!!! They
were also attacked on the way to the Russian border. No wounded could be evacuated that day. I can’t believe that this can happen in the country of Democracy and Freedom which Georgia reports to be… Are such things a part of Western Democracy values??? If so, we don’t need it at all…
Take it back with this sick president of Georgia. He studied in American university well, now we have no doubts in it. I saw a video one the one site taken by American soldier in the battle with his comments, so pls don’t say that americans are not involved(I can send URl if you need)
August 8, about 14:00:
After reporting of nearly 1500 people killed and some of them are
Russian citizens and peacekeepers, Russian troops enter the South Osetia through the Roki tunnel. Meanwhile in Tskhinvally two Georgian brigades are separated by Osetian defence troops(small, poorly equiped, but well organized) and Georgia with all their missles and numerous tanks can not take the small city, only 6 km(4 miles) long.
August, 9
After another night of fighting, Georgians still killing all the people
which they can find in the ruined city, no matter military or civilians.
They destroyed the only hospital, university and bakery. No food, no
water, no help to the people there. Snipers are killing old people on
the streets, who are slow and easy targeted. Russians take the nothern part of city, but still heavy fights and many Russian tanks are burning. Several aircrafts are shot down, seems that Georgian, but in Georgia
reported to be Russian. Georgian TV says to the whole country that
Tshinvally is under controlf of Georgian troops and the operation will
soon be over. Russian TV shows the real picture from the battle field.
It seems that many soldiers killed, but there are still many heavy
fights.
Later Saakashvilly starts to blame “Russian Invaders, who attacked small Georgia”. Then I see him on many western channes, they also show ruined Tskhinvally streets, BUT SAYING THAT THESE ARE STREETS OF GEORGIAN TOWNS, AFTER RUSSIAN BOMBINGS, but these are OSETIAN streets, after GEORGIAN BOMBINGS and attacks. There are cars with russian numbers, russian signs and what is more important: russian soldiers, walking
peacefully in”Georgian bombed towns”. Do you think this is possible???
August 10: Tskhinvally is cleaned from Georgian troops (they always
retreat when meet some resistance, this happened same 16 years ago and before). Saakashvilly says that he wants peace.
He difinitely wants now, after no forces left to attack. The mission
complete! He is a victim of Russian bear(Medvedev is coming from word “bear” in russian… Everybody in the world is indignant by Russia
bombing “poor little Georgia” with military budget of US$ 1 billion of
American money during last year… But nobody remembers that they
started killing women and children on last Thursday night, when
everybody were asleep peacefully in their beds. Nobody knows that they has opened water pipe system to drown the rest of the poor people still hiding in the basements of Tskhinvally from the continuing missle and artillery attacks. This is how he want’s peace. New wonderful and touchy show arranged by America.
To tell the truth, I blame all the journalists and media shareholders
for this campaign. I understand that some of you must pay mortgage and loans and have to do everything to keep your job, but what you show to the world makes you an accomplice of all these numerous brutal murders, and all these raped and killed children and women will be your jury in Holy Court. If you believe in God, I beg you to stop lying about this
tragedy… This is a big sin for your soul!! You are people, but not
the beasts as those soldiers!!! So please stop helping all these
bastards by supporting them in mass media, when you don’t have even a common understanding of what really happend!!!
P.S. I understand, that none of you would react my comment, and thatthis mass media campaign was planned and prepaid in advance. But I willsend such message to most of the reachable world mass media in a hope tofind the honest journalists, who know what is their real duty.
As it is possible to speak about aggression of Russia when armies of Russia have been entered in the evening on Friday. And early in the morning on Friday the Georgian TV showed, how there is the most severe shelling of the sleeping Tskhinvali. Georgian TV showed an input in a city of tank columns and infantry of Georgia.
How it is possible to speak about steam of the destroyed civil buildings in Burn, near to military base and to ignore completely destroyed whole city? Why you should lie and instead of 2000 victims from the Osset party, to carry these of a victim on the party of Georgia? The western mass-media support a genocide the Ossetin from Georgia.
Hello. My name is Andrew, I’m Russian, I’m 21 years old and I’m from Saint-Petersburg.
Forwardly, sorry for my non-perfect English, but I hope you will understand the main idea I’d like to tell you.
This is horrible what happens in Osetia. More horrible is only that Georgian government says that Russia started to kill civilian people and bomb their territory. This is lie. On the contrary, Georgian military started it. Started after Saakashvili told he is ready to start negotiations over problem in this region.
You, Europeans, Americans, see only what your media let you to see. You haven’t seen the church with children and women that wanted to hide there from Georgian troops, who burned them there alive. You haven’t seen Russian wounded peace-makers that were shot by their Georgian “colleagues”. You didn’t see emergency cars with injured people that are attacked on it’s way to safe area by Georgian snipers. You don’t see Osetians who till this moment hide in ground floors of buildings without drinking water,food and medicaments, they’re afraid to go to street because Georgian troops continue to shoot at them.
2000 people are already killed. And this is only an official information. Imagine how many dead people are there under the ruined buildings…nobody knows how many, because Georgian troops don’t let Russian emergency to save them. They shoot, shoot and shoot.
I don’t know the real purpose of this war, I only can to assume. But I know that Russians are not the agressors like USA. We only defend people, nation that want to be free and independent from Georgia. Ossetins, Abkhazians are not Georgians. And they’re dying while politicians can’t come to compromise. This is a truly genocide.
Think about it and think with your own brains. Thanks.
Andrew_Saint (#9): You seem like a smart chap. So think on it. Are you sure it’s we, the westerners, that are the ones being led by the nose by our media? Those living in the West have access to free media with no censorship; Russia does not. This is a fact. From my point of view, you are just repeating official Russian government propaganda.
I don’t think any one is claiming that Georgia is an innocent victim in all of this. But Russia is definitely NOT doing anything to help the conflict end; its actions are a massive over-statement. Bombing a country that is asking for a ceasefire is not a way to achieve peace, regardless of its alleged crimes.
I took your advice and thought about it. You do the same. I’ll quote you, yourself, back at you. “Think about it and think with your own brains. Thanks.”
J (#10)
So, are YOU sure about our western media? Do you think our “free” media tells us 100% truth? I am not russian but I ask myself, why do the show only about georgien casualties? Please tell me why don’t they show us casualties from the S.Ossetia side? You watch to much Hollywood movies about bad russian guys. So let me quote you: “Think about it and think with your own brains. Thanks.”
I do really, really hope. No. I wish, I almost pray that the russians would kick back georgien military with their US instructors!!!
By the way did somebody see pictures of black georgien solders lying dead on the ground? Hm…. Or I know, those were probably only tourists.
P.S. I understand, that none of you would react my comment
Considering how you’ve likely spammed this spiel across a good number of blogs, that was a pretty good guess actually.
You, Europeans, Americans, see only what your media let you to see. You haven’t seen the church with children and women that wanted to hide there from Georgian troops, who burned them there alive. You haven’t seen Russian wounded peace-makers that were shot by their Georgian “colleagues”. You didn’t see emergency cars with injured people that are attacked on it’s way to safe area by Georgian snipers. You don’t see Osetians who till this moment hide in ground floors of buildings without drinking water,food and medicaments, they’re afraid to go to street because Georgian troops continue to shoot at them.
2000 people are already killed. And this is only an official information.
Yes, because “an official information” from a Kremlin run by ex-KGB men is so very trustworthy. Muppet. Perhaps next you’d like to pony up someone claiming to have seen Georgians taking babies out of incubators?
Wednesday, I know what you’re saying but I’d suggest it was disproportionate in the sense that firstly as already stated it was intended as an object lesson in what Russia can do, and secondly for all the stuff about US instructors for the Georgians at the end of the day they’re very much a second, perhaps third, rank power. Russian air dominance was established immediately. To bomb the Georgian airbase, which they appear to have done, served no serious military function (and broadened the scope of the conflict beyond the borders of South Ossetia). Which is not to let Tbilisi off the hook at all for their utter stupidity, and yes, adventurism in starting this phase off last week.
I don’t think its useful to continually look back to Washingtons past or present actions. Surely we have to say such and such an action is valid, or not, on its own terms. I can’t help feeling that Moscow is playing a sensible (I’m not making ethical judgements, just observations) strategic game, in terms of shoring up their support/authority as a great power, but a tricky tactical game. In other words, from here on out (and note that Moscow broadly got a free pass on the Chechen situation from the US/Europe) the degree of genuine moral authority I think they had (albeit weakened by said Chechen situation) in relation to the Kosovo situation is now much dissipated. But then again, being pragmatic, what does Moscow care about tactics or strategy in the contemporary era? What can be done is done, what can’t isn’t. Just as they wouldn’t shed a drop of blood for the territorial integrity of Serbia neither will the US for the territorial integrity of Georgia. Which means that all arguments based on national sovereignty are now utterly (although I guess they always were) contingent on who is where and when.
I think oddly that the old SWP mantra of neither Washington nor Moscow has never been more appropriate. And certainly not Tbilisi.
Heiko (#10) Yes, I’m sure about my media. I don’t mind if that sounds arrogant. I read and watch my news from many different channels from many different countries. I’m pretty certain they don’t all intentionally distort the truth. Lack of information is a thing every newspaper is suffering from now, though.
I’m not sure about your German media, but I have seen a lot pictures about casualties — on both sides. I don’t know why you are hoping to see any military “kick back” anything. Peace would be the ideal solution.
And for the record: I’m not sure where I laid the blame for the whole conflict on Russians. Please read my post again. I just said that the Russian bombing campaign is a massive overstatement and not helpful for peace. And I also said that Georgia is hardly innocent in this, either.
and secondly for all the stuff about US instructors for the Georgians at the end of the day they’re very much a second, perhaps third, rank power.
Actually, third or maybe fourth is more like it. Accounts vary (and I’m not about to pay to acces Janes’ just to get real numbers) but that they’ve only got seven jets is a measure of how relatively ineffectual their armed forces are.
(We, by comparison, are only a fifth-rate power on this scale, with little more than a gendarme and coast guard.)
Obviously the Georgians like the Hungarians thought that Bush meant something.
An EU reaction, I think the big EU powers will react in their own interests. Lok at the gas pipeline to Germany which bypasses Poland.
Suggestion would Russia recognise a free and independent Ossetia. I think not.
I wonder what the people of the Ukraine think now? If they think they have western guarantees they are kidding themselves.
Oil has given the Ruissian ruling class the confidence to reassert themselves. While not a return to the Cold War duopoly we have a nuanced weakening of total American domination.
The reality is that Georgia has lost because S overplayed waht was a weak hand. Realpolitik is abiout strenght not morality.
A pity, the end of the USSR produced a mirror image of the USA.
On a footnote the attitude of much of the Left that everything is a Bush/USA plot against peaceloving whatever is a pain.
about massmedia (west east) -nobody can see full picture of any war – its imposible
russian internet can watch everything – give me some “imposible”
reference
west media more powerful- its true
read more about south osetia
read european comments
http://detainthis.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/the-real-aggressor?referer=sphere_related_content
for example -
Georgian president did everything what hi wanted
I’d agree Jim.
As regards the relationship between state and media, etc, well, all things considered I think I’d broadly prefer to be where I am than in Russia. That’s not to deny that the Putin/Medvedev combination is popular and has a legitimacy born of their ability (particularly the formers) to bring stability to Russia. I don’t think though that they have any particular vision other than a strong state with them at the top of it. A sort of personalised nationalism. And alternative power blocs within the polity are marginalised. Good, bad or indifferent? Stability more important now, certainly. But in the long term?
And now we can see the dangers of a common EU foreign and security policy. If the war widened to attack Georgia itself, we’d get the eastern Europeans screaming at the least for troops to be moved east to defend against possible attack, while the western powers would rather the whole thing went away, and the policy would fall apart anyway. But it should be blindingly obvious to all concerned – and anyone who remembers who WWI got started – that opposing treaty blocs have the potential to infinitely widen rather than just prevent war.
WBS I’m not disputing that Russia has done more than it had to do to resolve the immediate crisis. But given they’re being judged by the west for their reaction I think it’s quite reasonable to compare that reaction with others that the west itself has either carried out or condoned. And it’s hardly only Russia’s position on Kosovo that has been shown up by this affair.
Those living in the West have access to free media with no censorship; Russia does not
This is the sort of comment that makes the western expats I know in Moscow jump up and down screaming. Yes, the major media outlets in Russia are state-run and censored. However, they are not the only media Russians have access to. Anything we can get on the internet, they can get. (It’s also highly questionable whether our media can be described as having “no” censorship but that’s another matter…)
the attitude of much of the Left that everything is a Bush/USA plot against peaceloving whatever is a pain
I think any suggestion that the US deliberately fomented this is insane, but they don’t seem to have done all they could have done to reign in the Georgians in the weeks leading up to the events. I would find it very difficult to believe Saakashvili wasn’t dropping hints about his plans given that he obviously expected support for them. And you’d have to ask yourself why it wasn’t made absolutely clear to him that that support would not be forthcoming – at the moment I’m leaning towards “incompetence” as the answer, but my mind is open.
Apologies for the unintentional smiley.
“that opposing treaty blocs have the potential to infinitely widen rather than just prevent war.”
I would nuance it by saying fixed blocs where there is a momentum.
By 1905 the blocs in Europe were fixed, creating a momentum to an inevitable war.
I worry about say Greece squaring up to the Turks where they expect and plot to bounce the rest of us into a war. The French were very careful in 1914 to avoid giving the Britsih an excuse not to go to war.
Well I suppose I should move the pension fund in armenments (joke and spelling problem.
The EU should offer Russia a pact for stability and development, rather than gearing up to war.
Wednesday, that wasn’t quite the point I was making… to focus on Russia alone. Simply to say that on Kosovo they had a reasonable enough position underpinned by international law. Following this clearly such law is broadly speaking contingent… we can look for blame, but we can also worry about the fact that pure power politics has completely reasserted itself with no evident check.
Meanwhile, I’d draw precisely the opposite lesson Garibaldy (quite apart from the obvious fact that there is a nascent CFSP and has since the 1990s). The EU has been very clear to sit on its hands on this one as it would even under say a Lisbon style CFSP. Indeed taking Jims point I think the idea of an EU stability development pact with Russia is precisely the sort of CFSP we should be looking at.
Angela Merkel and others denied the plea from Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. That was a desperate call from two democracies, to join a defense alliance and keep Russia’s expansion and domination ambitions at bay. Merkel was concerned that accepting those former Soviet republics would ‘alter the balance of power’, a sad excuse for her fear that gas prices from Russia would go up in retaliation. Are Angela and her coward fellows apologizing for turning their backs on these young democracies? How are they going to make up now for their miscalculation? How are they going to make it up now to Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries that will come next? Is Merkel sure that Germany is not in the menu also? After all, half of Germany was part of the Soviet Union, the same Russia is now trying to rebuild.
Friendship tested and the games President’s play. Georgian President worked with his friend George W. Bush and played a game of suck up to the World Power so Russia would leave Georgia alone. Surprise! The US was a no show and has no power as Georgian President loses. Russia has waited and known the games the US was playing with not only Georgia but other countries to get them to join in the illegal invasion of Iraq. Now Bush wants to attack Iran for Israel and bring down North Korea as now we have Russia. Some Journalist have written they want to attack Russia now. Who are you going to seen? Americans will shut down the USA if the draft is opened. Now Americans don’t care about those who volunteer in the Military to die but the rest of Americans will only give lip service, get a ribbon for the car or hang the US Flag outside the house. That’s as much support as you get. As for those yelling to start more invasion well none have ever or will ever serve in the US Military.
Saakashvili seems to be none too secure at home in that there have been ongoing mass demonstrations by Georgian oppositionists against globalisation put down with tear gas and beatings. This exercise with general mobilisation of the reserve is a nice distraction.
He was either directly US backed in this or else thought he could nail it quickly take control of South Ossetia in a quick move before trying to get into NATO next year.
I agree with those who say that Georgia’s intention of joining NATO along with Kosovo’s US backed “independence” was a step leading directly to the war in Georgia. Both moves are perceived by Russia as agressive and I agree that they are. Georgia’s government presumably hoped that a quick smash and grab raid would allow it to claim that there was no conflict in the country and get NATO membership. The EU having used the ongoing disputes over South Ossetia and Abkhavia as reasons for excluding Georgia from NATO may have come into play too.
Much of the TV reporting of this on both sides is pure propoganda and it is difficult to get anything like a real picture. One side is showing pictures of civilian dead and injured resulting from Russian bombing and the other side is showing the same results of Georgian bombing of the South Ossetian capital. But no serious commentator seems to dispute that the current war started as a result of Saakashvili sending the Georgian army in to South Ossetia and launching a massive attack on the capital. Russia has responded with a “shot across the bow of NATO”, bombing a Georgian Black Sea port, bombing at the Abkhavian border and bombing Tiblisi’s airport. Just like in the Stalinst USSR, there is no Russian concession to the lives and the welfare of the Georgian people, many of whom are actively organising opposition to Saakashvili both in South Ossetia and “Georgia proper”.
Saakashvili has put down opposition demostrations with brutality and appears to be a US puppet.
The underlying conflict to keep an eye on here is between the US and “old Europe” – France, Germany and the UK. Georgia would not have moved without the nod from Bush’s government.The US wants the balkanisation of Europe under US control, reeling in the Eastern european states to its ambit. Rumsfeld, when asked by a reporter about European criticism of the Bush administration’s drive toward war in Iraq replied, “You’re thinking of Europe as Germany and France. I don’t. I think that’s old Europe. You look at the vast numbers of other countries in Europe. They’re not with France and Germany on this. They’re with the United States.”
It is the expressed aim of the US government to create its own special sphere of influence in Europe, in direct opposition to France and Germany. Kosovo needs to be seen in that context. Rumsfeld has promoted the expansion of NATO to the east — with the inclusion of weak former Warsaw Pact states that are easily manipulated by the United States—as a means of undercutting French and German influence in Europe. Poland and Georgia are now US allies.
The Iraq war dislodged substantial French oil interests from Iraq and US pressure is now on Iran, that is an important supplier to “old Europe”. US military interests are focused both on oilfields and also on the main oil pipelines crossing Afghanistan and Georgia.
Since the US has withdrawn from the ABM Treaty, a US antiballistic shield is being installed in the Czech Republic and Poland, again with much public opposition. This is a recognised first strike stragegy. The US line that this is against Iran is clearly a lie as it the system is designed to take out nuclear ballistic missiles that Iran does not have and that Russia does have.
The worse a state the US economy is in, the more ready is the US government to use military power to protect and promote its global interests. It is putting together the jigsaw puzzle pieces spelled out in the “Rebuilding America’s Defenses” – Project for the New Millenium – piece by piece.
just look at it
http://thebrainpolice.blogspot.com/
and
Wednesday (#21): I know Russia has free, unrestricted access to the internet. But you assume that most of the citizens there would ever bother reading news from the internet or even have steady access to the it. According to the CIA fact-book 26 million people in Russia are internet users. The total population is what.. slightly over 140 million?
So, yes, I’m sure that “Western expats” and the wealthier part of the population will have a chance to read objective options and scoff at my claims of propaganda. But the average Russian will still watch his news from his trusty TV or read them from the paper. Which are heavily leaned on by the state not to report anything anti-government.
But yes, my initial post could have been a bit unclearly written. I hope this clarifies my point on view on the issue. As for whether or not we in the West have neutral media.. oh no! I’m -not- going to touch that can of worms with a ten foot pole.
Saakashvili got what it was looking for… Maybe too costly a lesson. Such tragic loss of life for the stupidity of one person. He must be out of his mind. How could he even think his adventure would work… Russia got a chance to flex its military muscle after being marginalized for too long. Russia took this opportunity to send out a warning to any future mischief mongers..
Ironic.. and tragic.
Much I’d agree with in what you say cactusflower, however I don’t think that all this plays out in a programmatic way with the US behind the scenes controlling or prompting or Saakashvili as a US puppet. I suspect the very last thing the US wanted was instability in Georgia which is the nett result of the war – particularly if one buys into the thesis that oil pipelines are part and parcel of this. Even a ’successful’ retaking of South Ossetia in the way Saakashvili did it (indiscriminate shelling etc) would have left Georgia a most unlikely contender for NATO.
Indeed I’d question whether the US is in any position in the current context to project power as it did in the September 2001 to 2003 period, or ever will be again. I also wonder how the EU cuts across any residual ambitions of the US to meddle in Europe.
I’d completely agree Praveen.
you assume that most of the citizens there would ever bother reading news from the internet or even have steady access to the it.
I assume that the person to whom you said:
“Are you sure it’s we, the westerners, that are the ones being led by the nose by our media? Those living in the West have access to free media with no censorship; Russia does not. This is a fact. From my point of view, you are just repeating official Russian government propaganda.”
bothers reading news from the internet, given that he was clearly on the internet when he found and posted to this forum. Incidentally how do you think the average westerner gets their news?
Russia is an unrepentant and habitual invader, for centuries now. Under different colors (USSR, now the Economic Space, etc.) they just like to invade, dominate and slave anyone they can reach. This is basic history, not a theory. Russia also likes to ‘impregnate’ the countries they occupy, to destroy their national identity, by moving large parts of their own population into those countries. This provides ‘legitimacy’ to their military intrusions into sovereign countries (such as Georgia now, Ukraine tomorrow) to ‘protect’ the Russian nationals living there.
Wow, the Russians are out like the Isrealis all over the internet on this one.
Anyway my tuppence worth is; despite the Georgians being armed and trianed by the US and Israel, they are in the right, they had a right even a reponsibility to restablish their borders, they excercised that right and were invaded.
Russia also likes to ‘impregnate’ the countries they occupy, to destroy their national identity, by moving large parts of their own population into those countries.
Well, maybe, but that’s not what happened here. The South Ossetians have been there for centuries. They aren’t a Russian people. Georgia could be accused of this too, anyway, certainly in Abkhazia.
they are in the right, they had a right even a reponsibility to restablish their borders
Of course that begs the question of whether those borders themselves are legitimate. Even assuming for the sake of argument that they are, it doesn’t follow that turning a city into rubble is a legitimate way to re-establish them. Surely it’s possible to believe that Georgia had a right to do something, without believing that they were “in the right” because of the manner in which they did it.
Hmmm… well reducing cities to rubble is a game two have played at this stage (and one could easily suggest the Georgians learned from some masters). And while it is early days it certainly looks (if reports from independent observers are to be credited) like the Russians have breached Georgian sovereignty utterly and well beyond any ‘legitimate’ measures that they might seek to utilise to push back Georgian forces. In any case it’s hard now to take any future pronouncements from Moscow (or anywhere else for that matter) about state sovereignty seriously. Not that it was ever terribly easy. But, still…
No argument WBS.
What’s particularly dismal about all this is that – broadly speaking – the Russians had been essentially a constructive force in international relations pointing up the adventurism of the US. This isn’t to say they were perfect, but their approach has been generally measured and thoughtful. I really hope that something can be salvaged from all this.
There is no way that the Georgians would have even had the time to reduce Tskhinvali to rubble. It takes a lot of ordance and time to do so. I don’t for a second believe the 2,000 dead civilain figures given out by the Russians and I would wager that post ceasefire the capital of South Ossestia will turn out to be quite erect. As we have seen before, (e.g. Isreal in 2006), a couple of thousand Grad and Katushya rockets does not “reduce” a town to rubble.
Actually it was the South Ossetians who came up with the 2,000 figure. As for the state of Tskhinvali, “pulverised” was the word used by the Independent (Brit) journos who reported from there yesterday.
Wednesday it was you who used the phrase reduced to rubble, footage I have seen shows a couple of houses in rubble, some other buildings that were burnt out some time ago and some artillery damage, a far cry from the emotional description of a city “reduced to rubble”. I mean the trees on the main street still have their leaves. There is no evidence given of a massive indiscriminate artillery barrage that is being sold by the Russians and SO’s. Bear in mind that the shots shown on TV, on either side, will tend to be the worst damage areas – nothing to do with politics more to do with making the story more interesting.
There is no way there were 2,000 civilian deaths incurred by the Georgian attack on OS and clearly the Georgians clearly did not reduce the city to rubble!!
This is important as the legitimsation being given for the Russian response by you and others is based on a belief that the Georgians were attacking a civilian town in an indscriminate, masssive and vicious manner.
I have no particular gra for either or any of the actors involved, I don’t really care if they want to kick lumps out of each other. What I do care about is the lack of logic that kicks in when people want to believe something.
I would put money on less than 10% of the buildings in the town being war damaged.
I’d tend to the view as regards the info coming out of the war zone that we have to be very cautious about statements by either protagonist.
Agreed WBS, and I never said I accepted the 2,000 figure as fact anyway. That’s not really the point. Dec insists that Georgia was “in the right” and justifies that argument on the basis that he doesn’t believe what the Ossetians and Russians are saying about the state of Tshkinvali. Fair enough, but I think even if you discount the propaganda from those sources there are grounds to condemn Georgia’s actions. Here’s another piece, from the same Independent journalists I quoted earlier:
“Corpses were dotted about the city, burnt-out tanks littered the road, and every other building showed bomb or mortar damage, with many simply smouldering ruins. Where once 10,000 people had roamed, there was barely a soul. Many residents have fled across the border into North Ossetia, and those left were the walking wounded, some heavily bandaged, others limping along on crutches.”
If Dec wants to argue that this description, and the earlier one of a city “pulverised”, don’t amount to it actually being “reduced to rubble”, fine. It still goes well beyond anything I can conceive of as an acceptable method of attempting to re-establish borders. And I note that Dec hasn’t addressed the borders issue anyway.
[...] Link: Irish Blogs [...]
Wednesday, I did address the “borders issue” – in my initial post. To expand I don’t believe it feasible or desireable that we encourage the 50+ larger ethnic groups in the Caucasus to strive for independence. 50+ independent countries in such a small area will lead to chronic instability. The South Ossestians number, what, between 50-70,000 – are they an viable independent state? They were offered generous autonomy by Georgia and turned it down, a position they were in due to their sponsorship and protection by Russia.
I would be happy to promote the concept of independence from Georgia if, as was the case in Chechyna and Kosovo, that the history and experience with their “mother state” was one that was irreconcilable based on historical abuse and repression. In the case of South Ossestia that history doesn’t seem to be there. The South Ossestians never gave it a chance, again because they didn’t need to take the hard decisons and neccesary compromises due to Russian protection.
I mean what next Irish Travellers declared want an independent homeland in Ireland and Wednesday would support this?
99,000 according to the last census, which wouldn’t even put it among the dozen or so smallest countries in the world.
I agree there doesn’t seem to be a history of abuse and repression there, but is it only history that makes a relationship irreconcilable? The west’s line on Kosovo is that it was Milosevic’s actions specifically that made that relationship untenable (note that under the SFRY, there was no Kosovan independence movement to speak of – rather a movement for republic status within the federation). And it’s hard to see how the relationship can be reconciled after this affair. Do you think the Ossetians are ever going to willingly remain within Georgia now?
The comparison with Travellers is daft but I’m not surprised to see you make it, whenever these debates come up somebody always invents a non-existent territorial dispute and claims a green light would be given for it if X was allowed to happen. Travellers (a) are not asking for an independent homeland in Ireland, (b) have no historical homeland to claim, so stop being ridiculous. Ossetians on the other hand do have a historical homeland and they overwhelmingly want it out of Georgia. Now there may be a solution to this conundrum that doesn’t involve granting them self-determination, but even if that’s the case, it was never going to be found in a show of force either. That should be obvious to even the most casual observer, including the Georgians themselves. And given that, surely you have to question whether this was ever really about Georgia “re-establishing its borders” to begin with, and if it wasn’t, doesn’t that undermine your argument about it being their right and responsibility?
Ossetians on the other hand do have a historical homeland and they overwhelmingly want it out of Georgia.
Well, they do now. According to AFoE, Ossetia’s pretty mixed culturally; ‘Ossetia-for-the-Ossetians’ is a recent development, which has grown up very largely in response to Georgian ethnic nationalist drum-beating since 1991. There’s always a danger of myth-making when subordinate nations assert themselves – these proud people in their age-old mountain fastness…. Go back as little as 20 years and most of these proud people probably just wanted to get on with their lives.
But Georgia’s got about as much chance of holding on to the Ossetians now as Serbia has of the Kosovars, and for very much the same reasons.
‘Ossetia-for-the-Ossetians’ is a recent development, which has grown up very largely in response to Georgian ethnic nationalist drum-beating since 1991.
That’s true but it’s not the whole story. The Stalin-imposed partition of Ossetia also took on a new significance when Georgia seceded from the USSR and it became a partition across rather than within state borders. The South Ossetians’ national aspirations ultimately involve reunification with the North Ossetians, and they seem happy to achieve that by reverting to the pre-1991 situation where they were all part of the one big federation. Hence their repeated requests to Russia for re-annexation. It’s interesting how when small nations want out of Russia the west is only too happy to support them but God forbid anyone want back in…
I think Wednesday we see the Hotel California problem. On paper “You can checkout any time you like, But you can never leave!”. Okay, it’s a bit more nuanced than that… but you know what I’m getting at. And realistically, it’s not just a western thing, it’s also about some level of self-determination and sovereignty for those as want it.
Incidentally I should add I have no particular problem with people joining the Russian Federation, but… disputed territories? I really think we have to move more carefully. Or we should look at some sort of shared sovereignty as a half-way house.
[...] trackback The thought struck me yesterday as I read Phil’s very sensible comment on this post [see #47], that while the scenes from the Georgia may well be a source of gloom for most of us that [...]