The Cedar Lounge Revolution

And so it comes to this. The Progressive Democrats, bloodied and bowed, subject to the death by cuts of a thousand (well, okay, a score of) defecting councillors. Their ‘leadership’ in agreement that the way is unclear and now where to?

The Irish Times reports that:

THE FUTURE of the Progressive Democrats is to be decided by a special conference of the membership to take place next month. This is in line with a recommendation by the four PD members of the Oireachtas who have collectively stated that the party is no longer viable.

It’s a catastrophic end – and this has to be the end – for a party which a little over a year ago was a fundamental element of the government of the Republic of Ireland. Which even today has a Minister sitting at the Cabinet table. Which sought to ‘break the mould’ although in what fashion was somewhat ambiguous and as time passed it seemed merely to be a means of binding the mould together.

In a fit of political generosity, or perhaps a sign of some none too subtle arm twisting by his colleagues we read that:

Galway West TD Noel Grealish will remain in the party until after next month’s meeting has taken place, according to PD leader Senator Ciarán Cannon, who was speaking at a press conference in Newbridge, Co Kildare, last night.

How good of him. No mention of the fact that Grealish has by his inactions and unspoken words been a contributory factor in bringing the party to this pass. If his implicit question mark over the future of the PDs had not been there it is relatively easy to see them staggering on to the local elections. To what purpose? Well, I’m no PD, but as I’ve noted before, there are parties of the left which would be pleased to have half their crop of councillors, let alone four representatives in the Oireachtas.

But this links for me to something ejh noted on a previous thread in response to another comment.

Social and economic change in this country starts with Garret (liberal agenda) and Charlie (national partnership). What role, if any, did this rump of neo-gentry Thatcher fans really play?

Thinking about this, I think the main role was in their own minds – but the self-image of these people was of importance, They were (and are) people who were very definitely opposed to everything they felt that old ideas of Ireland stood for, and moreover, who felt that these ideas had held Ireland, and people like them, back. For this reason they would not have joined, or willingly supported, the established parties, which would not, in any case, have given them the leading role they felt they merited.

I think this is a very persuasive analysis. The PDs were always more about self-image than some of their most vocal supporters might have proposed. It’s not that the PDs couldn’t as a political formation continue, but it is that their self-image of the Progressive Democrats as a ‘natural’ party of government, of having a seat at the top table, of being a force in the land above and beyond mere politicking has led them to a place where they wind up utterly detached from the mere banality of political activity on the ground (with some exceptions) and bereft of organic links to their purported constituency.

The outcome of their political activity was always the Oireachtas and that cloud of commercial and semi-state institutions which they made home. Or, to put it another way, they did the ‘big politics’, not the local. And for all the talk of ‘Parlon Country’ this was really chimerical. Tellingly that phrase was the subject of ill-concealed disdain by those within the party who simply didn’t understand that political activity in representational electoral systems – all political activity – depends upon at least some link between supporters and representatives. Parlon was right in the sense of attempting to build a base, his problem was that he was in the wrong party to do so. Take that link away in the brutally efficient manner which the electorate managed to do last year and what was left?

A half party which – to be honest – didn’t put that much effort into remedying the situation. The Socialist Party lost its single TD in May 2007, it has four councillors. Granted it has a very cohesive ideology that drives it forward, but supposedly so did the Progressive Democrats. But there is no talk in the SP of shutting up shop. It’s ambitions are arguably unrealisable, but – paradoxically – because they aim higher than simply the cabinet table they are able to maintain party discipline even in the face of significant setbacks.

And the much vaunted radicalism of the PDs is shown to be rather hollow when their ultimate destinations are the parties from which they originated in the first place.

Still, all that said what we see in them is merely a more exaggerated example of a process evident in all political parties. Their membership numbers, supposedly 4,000 or so, will be a source of grim amusement to many of us used to inflated membership lists. I’ll bet in real terms it is half that number or less. Yet this is true of probably all other parties, and those on the left are more exposed in this regard. The tide continues to spill out for political parties of all stripes in terms of membership, and this leads to a further paradox. The Progressive Democrats were almost seamlessly constructed to fit a political context where memberships were small and government was the objective. A sort of technocratic dream – if one will – where the messy business of government and even political activity is pulled away from broad party memberships and concentrated on smaller groups. Having been through Democratic Left it’s easy to see that this was a dynamic not restricted to the right. There the party and its membership became more and more focused on maintaining the TDs, a life support machine of sorts. Not least because a pragmatic analysis of the situation led to the not incorrect conclusion that that was the only way to continue to progress the project. But that only takes you so far. Limitations come into play, longevity of candidates/elected representatives, an over-emphasis on the centre, and so on.

And the basic lesson to draw is that that model simply doesn’t work. That political activity still requires a strong base amongst a broader membership. That it can be in a smaller party, with a strong ideology and even lacking representatives, but that parties which seek state power in order to have any sort of extended political life may require a critical mass above a certain point, that or a very very strong ideological underpinning.

Now whether this points to further consolidations in Irish political terms, or whether it indicates a return to an essentially two and half party system with a couple of eighths floating about is a most interesting question. It’s hard to see that consolidation process happening with regard to either Sinn Féin or the Green Party. If we’re talking about ideological underpinning there is an argument to be made that both of those have ideologies that are sui generis in the Irish context, perhaps Sinn Féin a little bit less so than the Greens. After all, taking either the PDs or Democratic Left one could see them as being fixed upon a spectrum and being indicative of tendencies rather than carving out an entirely original niche. Easier in that context for others to subsume them eventually. Particularly, and isn’t it noticeable how both faded after experience in government (although across a much longer time period for the PDs), when the messy compromise of governance pointed up that the supposed differences were really not that great after all. And so the PDs will presumably flock to FG and FF and DL was incorporated into the Labour Party.

But this simplification, or reductionism, is bound to have some intriguing aftereffects. I’ve always seen the PDs as being a useful out-rider for Fianna Fáil, pulling in a section of the vote that might otherwise have gone to Fine Gael and thereby weakening the latter and strengthening the former. With them gone will we see Fine Gael able to add a couple more seats onto their current tally? Or will this inject yet further rightward thinking into that party and FF?

And what of the left? As someone pointed out to me today now that the field of prospective coalition partners has narrowed this means that by definition there are only three parties left who can make up numbers. And each is at least of the left, if not precisely on the left. The Green Party has first mover advantage, but both the Labour Party and Sinn Féin would be central to government formation in the future. This may have some problematic aspects for Fine Gael should the numbers turn out just so. Their new more muscular rightward drift might make it difficult if not impossible for Labour or Sinn Féin to deal with them in the future. So, do we see a retrenchment then back to a more centrist position in order to attract Labour? Is it even possible that they could deal with SF were that the only way to enter power? And then there are Independents, particularly those who might follow the pragmatic school of Finian McGrath, some of whom might indeed come from a PD background.

And how does this play for Brian Cowen, a politician whose ability to appeal in the crucial Dublin area is unknown for the moment? Already there are those who suspect that Fianna Fáil might see a softening of their urban working class vote at the next election. And then on purely pragmatic terms how does this play out for those who hitched their star to the PDs? If they enter other parties basic math suggests that they will be pitched against incumbents. So can one predict that some will choose independence, or even perhaps to retain the PD name?

Perhaps a hint of that in Cannon’s words:

…he added that the power to dissolve the PDs rested “solely with the members” and a special conference would be held “sometime in October”. On that occasion, he said, “everybody will have an opportunity to voice their opinion”.

Mr Cannon said it was “far from me to pre-empt what that decision might be”. In his opinion, the party had two choices. It could “limp on” into an uncertain future, while elected members were “picked off the edge of the herd like wounded animals”.

Rumour has it that Harney will become an Independent, perhaps O’Malley as well, with Grealish making the leap to Fianna Fáil. And meanwhile a most intriguing one suggests that Senator Cannon might find a more congenial home in Fine Gael. Surely not!

Splintered Sunrise has some interesting thoughts about their demise and their legacy here.