The Cedar Lounge Revolution

No Minister, don’t say that, whatever you do… or Lisbon II and the economic crisis… March 17, 2009

Have to admit, my heart sank when I read the following in today’s Irish Times…

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan predicted Irish voters will back a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, as a worsening economic crisis builds support for Ireland’s position within the European Union.

The Government is due to hold a new poll on the treaty on a date yet to be set later this year following its rejection last June.

Mr Lenihan said voters will embrace the EU and reject a go-alone policy after the collapse of Iceland’s economy.

“A lot of political pundits say the choice next time for Ireland will be Rome or Reykjavik,” Mr Lenihan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “Most people will vote for Rome.”

It’s not that I’m agin Lisbon, which I’m aware is not a hugely typical position on much of the left, critical support as long as the opt-outs are more than just rhetorical is about where I am. And I’ve mentioned only recently that despite my support for Lisbon One I do believe that only by reworking the nature of our relationship to the Treaty would it be justifiable to bring it before the people again, even if some of that reworking is – to be honest – operating against my own beliefs. But that’s democracy, however imperfect, and that is also intrinsic to actually listening to the complaints of the electorate.

It’s the implicit second guessing of the electorate that irritates me. Who knows if the financial crisis is responsible for the current swings in polls to the YES side? Who knows if that swing will be sustained. I’d much prefer if the government were out there saying why they think it is necessary to vote YES which is a distinctly different approach.

So to hear Lenihan offering up hostages to fortune like the above, particularly to an external media outlet, seems to me to be an exhibition not of confidence but of complacency. There is absolutely no need for such rhetoric, no necessity to be suggesting:

“There’s growing support for a Yes vote,” Mr Lenihan said. “As the economic crisis has deepened, the population realizes how important Europe is to Ireland.”

It sounds to me like pointless boosterism, not least since there has as of yet been no effort on the part of the government to actually, y’know, do aything about it…

Hoping that the polls will continue to swing the way of the YES vote is all very well. So far so good. But there is a lot of this yet to run and even the smallest hint that they are beginning to engage with this rather than hoping it all comes right on the day might be no bad thing.