And as for the European Elections… that latest poll… May 15, 2009
Posted by WorldbyStorm in European Politics, European Union, Irish Politics.trackback
I’m fascinated by how the polls operate so distinctly between the local/national and the European. Partially, I guess, it is because of a funnelling effect in the latter with a relatively limited number of seats.
So, I’m scratching my head at some of the data from this article in the Irish Times. First up the left – soft, hard, middling, however one wishes to define it – is doing pretty well. The news that De Rossa and Mary Lou McDonald may well be set to retain their seats is good indeed…
In Dublin, which has lost a seat to become a three-seat constituency, Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael leads the field with 26 per cent, followed by Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party with 21 per cent and Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin with 14 per cent.
Eoin Ryan is back on 11 per cent followed by Independent, Patricia McKenna, on 8 per cent, Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party on 7 per cent, Deirdre De Burca of the Greens on 6 per cent and Eibhlin Byrne of Fianna Fail on 5 per cent. Caroline Simons of Libertas is on just 1 per cent of the vote.
While Mr Ryan will get significant transfers from his party running mate he will need to improve his first preference total to have a realistic chance of edging out Sinn Féin to hold his seat.
That’s a very very good performance by Sinn Féin for the start of the campaign, particularly given how crowded the left leaning field is, and – with luck – they’ll build on it. I’m puzzled by De Burca being behind McKenna, although I guess name recognition is a factor there, and the fact the poll was taken the week that the latter announced her candidacy. It’s not that I think De Burca is seriously in contention, at least not at this point, but her Dublin wide campaign has been notable for its pervasiveness. Bus-shelters, outside Dart stations, wherever one went during the month she was sure to be one step ahead. Although, the same, if not more, could be said about Caroline Simons of Libertas. Having seen the frankly catastrophic appearance of hers on the Vincent Browne programme on TV3 that in purely political terms might not be a surprise, but… surely all that campaign spend must count for something. At this point clearly not.
And the Chairman must be wondering how it is that his equally pugnacious, if perhaps a shade more convincing, performance on that same programme later in the week hasn’t translated into higher than the 9% this poll affords him.
Declan Ganley of Libertas is on just 9 per cent of the first preference vote in the North West constituency and would need to double that vote to have a chance of winning a seat.
Jim Higgins of Fine Gael leads the field in the constituency with 20 per cent, closely followed by Pat “The Cope” Gallagher of Fianna Fáil on 19 per cent and Independent, Marian Harkin, on 18 per cent. Sinn Féin candidate, Padraig MacLochlainn is on 10 per cent, followed by Mr Ganely on 9 per cent. The likely winners in North West are Mr Higgins, Mr Gallagher and Ms Harkin.
Mr. Ganely? But in fairness 9% isn’t awful for a first time candidate. Just it’s not quite the new dawn we’ve been promised. And to be just behind Sinn Féin? Cold cold comfort, not least since Libertas long since eschewed them as partners in their anti… er… pro-EU critique.
Speaking of which, how about this…
Another MEP in difficulty is Kathy Sinnott in the South constituency who is facing a challenge from the Labour Party and Sinn Féin.
Something’s brewing, that’s for sure. Meanwhile the East constituency, where Libertas appear to be running a campaign that has at the very least supported the idea of immigration control from the EU... how’s it going for them there?
In the East, Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness on 33% is ahead of running mate John Paul Phelan on 9% and unless the vote is split better, the second Fine Gael seat could be lost to Nessa Childers of Labour.
Fianna Fáil’s Liam Aylward is on course to retain his seat.
Not so well. Obviously. And Nessa Childers must be thanking her lucky stars she decided to switch from Green Party Councillor to candidate for the European Parliament for the Labour Party. If that ship came in…
The poll also shows that Fine Gael is facing an uphill struggle to retain its current five seats while Labour will hold its existing seat and is in with a strong chance of gaining two more.
Which, were SF successful would give us four leftish seats. And yes, caveats etc apply. But let’s not ignore how well Joe Higgins is doing. Now that’s name recognition, and a testament to hard work on the ground over the years. What is telling about this poll is how we see the larger parties actually doing less well and on the current figures likely to lose seats. And let’s not forget that polls have a certain momentum, perhaps particularly at times like this when political systems are under very specific pressures.
Again, this is a proper poll with a margin of error of 2% (although with the caveat that I don’t have the don’t know figures and 4% may apply to the regional polls). More cold comfort for many a candidate tonight.
Incidentally, the thought strikes me that the Libertas tactic of attacking all around them, and in particular their rivals [I'll be putting up one of their Euro candidate leaflets in the morning] is pretty awful politics if you want to gain preferences… who’d have thunk it?
a left vote of exactly 50% in Dublin (including McKenna, but not DeBurca) …..
Just read the poll not to surprised about Dublin as i think a lot of people have sensed a meltdown in the Capital for FF. It will be a good result to have 2 leftish seats in Dublin might make labour realize there are options appearing on the horizon. Doubt it though.
Very surprised about Ferris s showing in the south, although a friend from that part of the country tipped her to me during the week. Labour should take the east as Mc Guinness is hogging the vote and doing her running mate no favours.
Northwest is interesting though, Ganley s vote would be mainly an anti-lisbon one and as SF are the only other Anti Lisbon party in the race it should be interesting to see where he transfers. If SF can improve by 2 or 3 percentage points and get any significant transfers from Ganley it will put them very close to Harkin. FF no this and that is why they ran Mc daid at that end of the constituency.
Without Mc Daid FF were in danger of losing the seat to SF it could still be close but by the poll Harkin could be looking over her shoulder. Cant see SF doing it but its possible. Interesting to see where the labour party transfers go. North west could be a surprise.
FF through the dice here in the hope that Mc Daids running mate would head him this is bad news for them Mc Daid will take the seat and cause another Bye election.
I hadn’t seen the Vincent Browne programme with Simons previously, but that was absolutely hilarious.
Comedy gold.
That seems very complex anthony, surely there’s an easier way for FF?
What a difference a poll makes. Ferris was at 12-1 with Paddy Power last night into 9-1 now, expect it to get shorter. Irish Times said that synott had a late surge the last time but I don’t remember it like that. If Ferris can stay ahead of her and assuming that Burke will transfer mainly to Sean Kelly I think she could be in with a chance of pipping Labours Kelly at the line. Now that would be a major shock.
It will be interesting if Ganley improves slightly where he will get second preferences from. Say for example if Mac Lochlainn or the Labour Candidate was eliminated before him. Kind of embarrassing for both parties if large swathes of their following was seen to plump for Mr Ganely as number 2.
‘Ordinary’ voters may not know Libertas’s pedigree as well as we might and there is that anti-Lisbon Treaty factor.
That’s true… and fairly plausible as a dynamic.
Sorry WBS
Freudian slip on Mc Daid its actually gallagher. It is actually very straight forward, SF is very strong in that part of the country and when you see left wing parties running the establishment close in 3 seat contests they notice.
Sometimes we can get lost in the Urban arena, but in many rural constituencies SF are certainly making huge gains and have become the left alternative. FF are trying to stunt there growth in Donegal where they ran them close in both constituencies in the last generals. Hence taking the risk with gallagher.
Either way it will be an interesting election Harkin isnt that safe on 18% while the candidates behind are both anti lisbon left and make up 25% .
Which candidates that are anti-Lisbon add up to 25% in NW? SF and Libertas are on about 20% I thought.
Sorry just to clarify SF 10% Libertas 9% and labour who are not anti lisbon are at 6%. The three make up 25 % so depending on transfers it should be interesting. SF are currently down 5 points on there 2004 performance according to that poll. A bit of room for a surprise.