The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Rita, Bob but no way Sue! Most likely. Or.. Labour and Fine Gael… and Fianna Fáil too. January 12, 2010

Reading some of the thoughts from before Christmas here some issues struck me about Labour and Fine Gael in the current electoral climate – and some of these are a extension of thoughts expressed here.

The discussion has turned on the capacity of Labour to strike progressive positions. One such might be to eschew coalition.

But it seems to me that we’re trapped in a system where Labour is simultaneously too big and too small to do so entirely successfully. It’s too small in its own right to lead a coalition. The best that can be hoped for is probably 30 odd seats. Perhaps a little higher on a good day – and given the bashing of the public sector over the last while they should by rights make hay amongst a huge tranche of former Fianna Fáil voting PS workers.. Not bad, not at all bad. But not the sort of ringing endorsement for left politics necessary to make the changes many of us would wish for (and this is before we ask what is the tenor of those Labour TDs likely to be?).

Fine Gael might breach 70 odd TDs. It could happen. But they’ll be doing well to do so. And on those sort of figures we could see Fianna Fáil dip below 50.

And here is where Labour is too big. If it did get – say – 30 odd seats it provides a most unattractive partner for Fine Gael who would be close enough, tantalisingly so on 70, but even more so the higher their number of seats above that figure, to the 84 odd for a majority. Oh, they’ll do the deal if the numbers allow for it, but thing of FG’s plight… locked into a coalition where simply by dint of the numbers they must concede more seats than they wish to, and from Labour’s perspective they are essentially making up the numbers. And that too is before we even discuss the political nature of such a Coalition.

Allowing for the proposition that between Sinn Féin, Independents and residual GP representation we might have 18 or so Others in the Dáil – and as I’ve already noted this week I’m less sure about that than I used to be – Fine Gael might just be able to entice some to join its own Coalition of all the talents, with or without the LP.

Alternative two might be for Labour to fashion some sort of lash-up with Fianna Fáil, but that’s politically unpalatable. At least at the moment. And once more this is where their relatively small size comes into play. They’d still be playing second fiddle in such a Coalition, albeit they’d be able to demand more of the larger party.

While one might think therefore that the idea they could stand aside from all this would be attractive that’s not in the nature of most political parties. Most certainly not the Labour Party. Here is where it’s relatively large size comes back into play. The idea that as a cohesive body of men and women the LP could be persuaded to eschew power is simply not tenable given it’s size and make-up. In a way it’s too isolated on the left, as the main formation of the left (and I know some dissent from that analysis but my take is that they’re on the left, just not on it quite enough to my liking), to be able to position itself in such a way. It feels, rightly or wrongly, that it has to be in power to be relevant.

And look at where the current apparent fracture of the previous political structure is beginning to lead to unforeseen consequences. The logic previously, and we saw this at 2007 when Rabbitte vehemently ruled out a coalition with Fianna Fáil (at least publicly), was that Labour would more likely move into power with Fine Gael – the great default option of Irish politics. After all, it’s not simply coincidence that it’s coalesced with FG time and again. FG was smaller and therefore it was possible to do deals. And this default option had ramifications as regards how the parties viewed themselves and how they rhetorically dealt with each other. In order to make coalition with Fine Gael more palatable Fianna Fáil had to be painted in the worst possible terms. For some of us whose political position has left us outside that particular menage a trois there has always been a certain incredulity at how two right of centre parties that have a remarkably similar political profile – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – could on various axes be projected as being utterly, essentially, different and distinctive to one another. Indeed one could argue that the default option ultimately scuppered the Fianna Fáil/Labour Party coalition of the early 1990s, from the off. A shared, albeit competitive, rhetorical approach ultimately torpedoed any prospect of the parties working constructively across a full Dáil term.

The default option continues to operate even now, so that counterintutively even though FF is potentially smaller after the next election Labour can’t/won’t deal with them. Which still leaves the FG option. Unless… unless FG is able to do the FF redux trick of going it more or less alone with a minor party or two and some Independents. I’m not sure they’d want to, but the logic of the system means that if one or other of the larger parties supplants the other, however temporarily, then the larger party will in order to maximise its own political benefit will seek much smaller political partners.

And this must be causing the odd sleepless night for Gilmore et al. What happens if, come the next election Fine Gael are just too large, and are able to go it – more or less – alone. The current Phoenix Annual has an interesting point in it about how the ‘Vingince factor’ in RoI politics continues to exist and that while:

There is even the fanciful dream entertained by some ministers that having toughed out the worst recession in the history of the state, that a grateful electorate will turn to them when the economy is restored and the voters see through the opposition’s smoke and mirrors.

Such fantasies ignore the grim reality of the Vingince factor in Irish politics. There are people waiting in the long grass for FF and neither Enda Kenny’s bungling nor another (most unlikely) boom will prevent them from exacting a terrible political price at the next general election – whenever it comes.

The factor may well do in not just FF, but also, by way of collateral damage, the hopes of Labour to sit in power. A real expression of vengeance would push FF aside, and if the numbers hit the mid or low 40s… then FG would be in with a real shout at nearing the crucial high 70s. At which point the game changes completely and a whole bunch of Independents might well see all their Christmases arriving together.

And Labour? In that scenario the unthinkable prospect of having to deal with Fianna Fáil might jump to the top of their list of priorities. After all, remember the point about being in power to be relevant… If they don’t do all they humanly can to enter government next time around they will have been out of power for at a minimum fourteen or fifteen years. A lifetime in politics, as we have had demonstrated only too effectively over the past decade or so. And that opens up even more difficult terrain for them to navigate across. On those sort of numbers they might well require A.N.Other to support them into power. And there’s only likely to be one political formation with the requisite numbers after the next election. A big hallo to Sinn Féin. But… for them…. well the problems mount up as well with a slow, but steady, attrition of councillors left and right – Killian Forde being but the latest – and the contradictions of power in the North and none at all in the South becoming starker every day, not to mention the reality that the personal travails of Adams over Christmas present a raft of problems on numerous scales and hardly bode well for his political longevity. Not that that is necessarily a problem and might indeed even be an advantage if future participation in government is seen as a primary aim. No doubt there are some inside that party who see a way to cut that Gordian knot in order to deliver them to a much more palatable position post the next Election. And while the loss of councillors is problematic it’s worth looking at the number of WP councillors in 1989 as against elected WP TDs to see that while important they’re not the only factor in Dáil electoral success.

Granted that this is all on the edge of the possible. But before we become complacent it’s worth recalling that as also noted in the Phoenix:

The first Sunday Business Post Red C Poll of 2009 showed FF at a then devastating 28%, trailing Fine Gael by 5 points.

And how quickly we forget that:

The June local and European elections saw FF take just over 24% of the vote and the latest Red C poll shows the party on 25% (actually up 1% from the previous month).

So although on the edge, given the protracted slump for FF across 2009 it may just be becoming a little closer to home. And the question remains, FF seem assured of a significant poll reversal whether the election is sooner, or later. How on earth is Labour going to square these circles? More than one person must be hoping they never have to.