New Scientist predicts the outcome of the British General Election May 4, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Britain, British Labour Party, British Politics, Uncategorized.trackback
Intriguing piece in New Scientist last week which noted that psychologists Rob Jenkins and Tony McCarthy from the University of Glasgow and Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire, have run a subliminal on-line experiment (whatever that may mean 
) with New Scientist in a bid to predict the UK election results.
Their findings?
Conservatives 290
Labour 247
Liberal Democrats 70
They’ll explain their methodology in the May 15th issue. I don’t know, I have no feel for this election at all. I’d think the Tories might shade it, but then… the polls have stayed stubbornly stuck – if that’s the right term – within a given band that has seen both Liberal Democrats and Conservatives seemingly having reasonable levels of support, and of course, Labour plugging away in the background. I’d be very interested in what others think about what the likely outcome might be.
One thing that has struck me has been the level of bile directed at Gordon Brown. Now, who wouldn’t argue that he has been the architect of his own downfall in large part – and yet, some of the comment on sites such as the Guardian, various blogs and even in the mainstream media has been so corrosive that it has at times appeared unhinged. I mean, I’d be far from his biggest fan – take an illuminating article in the Observer at the weekend which forensically dissected the poverty level benefits available in the UK, a shocking indictment after three Labour terms – but it seems to me that he has become the focus of a near uniquely antagonistic discourse.
I’m curious about that as well.
it seems to me that he has become the focus of a near uniquely antagonistic discourse.
Only if you discount similar or worse directed against Foot and Kinnock.
Actually that’s very true, both of them really got it in the neck, but I’ve been thinking of it more in terms of the internet. I guess give more people a platform to sound off… etc, etc.
Neither of whom was Prime Minister at the time. The nearest analogy is Major, and the press were pretty gentle to him by comparison.
I think it’ll backfire, incidentally; it’s been quite noticeable that nothing really seems to stick to Brown, and I think it’s because most people outside the Westminster/media bubble see him as reasonably trustworthy and want to give him the benefit of the doubt. There’s a class factor, too. Cameron’s background alone is enough for him to be hated – or at least deeply distrusted – by a lot of working-class voters. People like Cameron and Osborne pouring scorn on the oiks will go down an absolute storm in parts of southern England (and substantial parts of London), but it certainly doesn’t go down that well everywhere.
Those numbers are about what I’ve been thinking of, and my money was put where my mouth was last week.
I though Tories 290, Labour 245 Libdem 90 with 30 others(NI seats, SNP. PC, Indos and a green) that’s 645 I think, the numbers above don’t add up to 645.
The late supposed Tory surge could derail that. But my thinking I can’t see the LibDems making huge gains because of FPTP and the fact that their support remains so broadly spread nationally. And while Lab will drop a lot, a good amount of that drop will be stay at homes in strongholds which means no gain for the Tories. And if LibDems have been even merely shored up in existing seats by the Cleggmania then the Tories need gains in Labour heartlands that would have been unthinkable even in the 80s. So for me they will fall short. They can gain all the marginals they like against Labour but there aren’t enough of them if they don’t make gains against the LibDems.
The venom is in part what happens with believers who are disappointed as opposed to people who make a pragmatic political choice to vote for X. There is something Wagnerian about comment especially on the net which is all “I love you, I hate you.” without any room for a rational assessment of the situation.
So I take it you then think there will be a hung parliament?
I do. It is hard to get a sense of the scale of the mountain the Tories have to climb at times. They might get close to 310 with some luck results and be able to do a deal with the DUP to abstain on major stuff and even on the QT with SF to ensure they continue to simply not turn up. That might do it for them as a minority government, but it won’t be a majority (cue landslide for Cameron).
Guy Lodge has a very interesting piece on the constitutional implications of a hung parliament:
http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/guy-lodge/hung-parliament-will-provoke-constitutional-crisis-over-england
Blair’s inequitable devolution project seems to have opened a Pandora’s box.
Good article. There’s clearly a deficit given no subsidiary entity in England… but… clearly they didn’t want to open that up for fear of what it might do to the Union.
‘Subliminal on-line experiment’ bebollixed!
They’ve been using my time machine. Fifty years of painstaking work in the garage and I lent it to them to test drive and write an article. Autosport does new cars, New Scientist does time machines.
You know how you lend your most useful tool to the brother…? And you never get it back and he grunts non-commitally whenever you mention it. Same thing here. So, if you’re talking to them, impress on them that I want it back before they do irreparable damage to the space-time continuum.
Bastards stole my wbsPad idea too. And my wbsPod and my…
I’ve been canvassing a fair bit in East London and South London the past month and a half. After 10 years of doing election work in Ireland, UK and Germany I have to say I have never experienced an election as strange as this one. I should add that the areas I’ve canvassed are both traditionally Labour areas and also that London politics can be incredibly parochial so I wouldn’t claim any of what I say holds true even in other parts of London, nevermind the rest of the country.
That said I have noticed a definite hardening of the Labour vote these past two weeks. The prospect of the Tories and particularly people like David Cameron and Gideon “call me George” Osbourne getting into power is scarying the bejesus out of a lot of working class and even middle class voters, particularly those over 40. Naturally Labour is playing this up for all it’s worth. Where there has been slippage of votes it’s been to the Lib Dems and that’s almost equally divided between the sort of professional types Tony Blair and the New Labour project appealled to and younger voters who want some sort of incohate “change” but certainly don’t want that change to come in the form of Chris Grayling in the Home Office.
However if you’re talking about what’s really happening on the ground then none of that is particularly important or even relevant in terms of what’s going to what’s going to happen here in the next few years.
What’s been really strange about this election is the total lack of enthusiasm about any of the 3 parties even among people who have already made up their mind who to vote for. It’s not that people aren’t discussing the political direction of the country, they are. But they see the outcome of this election as largely irrelevant to what they know is coming down the tracks, namely enormous attacks on the public sector. This to me speaks of a huge legitimacy crisis not just for the main political parties but for democracy itself. Underneath this seeming apathy there is a simmering frustration building up on the estates. Some of it manifest’s in a blind of hatred of anyone associated with politics, left or right. Some of it is expressed in racial tensions and not just from the white section of the population. Some of it comes out in the oddest ways. I spoke to one young Pakistani man this evening who said he’s voted BNP in past elections because “I know they (the BNP) are a bunch of jokers anyway and I thought it would wind up the polticians”!
Interesting what you say neilcaff given the polls this morning. I agree entirely, the disconnect between the ground and all else is enormous. The thing is that the TINA approach leaves no space for politics. If all three parties say there will be cuts little wonder that there are curious expressions of political [in]activity here and there.
And the last paragraph I’d say pretty much applies to this botched little republic as well.
any views on the tootign constituency neilcaff? Bookies are calling it for the Tories, but that seems unlikely given some local knowledge i have.
Re: your last sentence. Very interesting if somewhat worrying. I’ve heard other BME members say something similar.
I actually used to live in Tooting, just opposite St. George’s hospital! I moved two years ago so my knowledge isn’t up to date but like yourself I would be very surprised if the Tories took it off Labour. There is a solid Pakistani vote that isn’t going anywhere except to the incumbant, Sadiq Khan. There’s also quite a big Tamil population that’s unlikely to vote Tory.
The Tory challenger is a guy called Mark Clarke who’s never ran in a general election before and is quite young at 33. He’s most famous (to my mind anyway) for taking part in a debate at the Socialist Party’s weekend school Socialism in 2006 back when he was Chair of Conservative Future, the party’s youth wing.
BME?
‘Black Minority Ethnic’.
“Black and Minority Ethnic”. Its the more recent accepted term for “ethnic minority”. Not sure why exactly.
‘One thing that has struck me has been the level of bile directed at Gordon Brown.’
Well he seems fairly dislikeable on many levels. But from a left-wing point of view- he was Chancellor during a period in which he oversaw ‘light-touch’ regulation and the City and the super-rich were able to run amok. He therefore bears responsibility for the current crisis. He was New Labour to the core: happy to hob-nob with the Bush regime and the oligarchs. Hence he was fully behind the lie that brought us to war in Iraq.
His attempts to bang the working class drum now are puke inducing.
He also oversaw a significant increase in the level of public spending without necessarily increasing taxation or broadening the tax base to underpin it but I guess it easy to overlook it as its eaten bread.
I reckon 306 Conservative, 229 Labour, 83 Liberal Democrat which leaves it all up in the air. And I never thought I’d have a good word to say about the DUP but the complaints this week from Tory supporters that the, unthinkable and deplorable, price of support from Peter’s boys might be a halt to public spending cuts in NI made me briefly fond of them. If Cameron was entering a coalition with the hard headed realists of FF or FG with their stoic acceptance of other people’s pain he’d have no such worries. Though, if need be, expect Cameron to roll out some rethink of the Good Friday Agreement as a sweetener. Which would not be very good news for this particular island.
For anyone who’s watching tonight, there are some early declaring constituencies which will give a good idea as to what’s happening (though, more than any other time since 1974, this time we’ll probably have to stay up through it all to see how it pans out, and it may actually be a bit like an Irish election where the swing is not completely uniform and is affected by local factors in some cases).
11.30pm: Sunderland Central: Last time out Labour 47%, Tory 25%, Libdem 21%, should stay Labour but will give an indication of the kind of swing against the government and who is benefitting. Slim Tory chance, if they get this they’ll win a majority and it’s time to go to bed already.
12.45: Birmingham Edgbaston: last time out Labour 43%, Tory 39%, Libdem13%. An almost cast iron Tory gain, if Labour hold this one then Brown will be the next PM.
12.45: Birmingham Ladywood: last time out Labour 51%, Libdem 31%, Tory 9%. Labour should hold on but if there was to be a significant Libdem breakthrough this is one they’d take. Labour since 1945 except for 1969 when the Libs won the seat in a by-election and lost it the following year.
1.00: Leeds North East: last time out Labour 45%, Tory 30%, Libdem 22%. Will be close and if the Tories take it they’ll get a majority.
1.00: Telford: last time out labour 48 Tory 34 libdem 14. predicted Tory gain, if they don’t take this they’ll be at least 40 short of a majority.
1.00: Tooting: last time out Labour 43%, Tory 30%, Libdem 19%. A nailbiter that could go either way, again a good indicator of whether the wind is at Cameron’s back or whether he’ll fall short. Slight fancy for the tories here. Labour have won every time since the constituency was founded in 1974.
Vale of Clwyd: last time out Labour 42%, Tory 29%, Libdem 12%. Same as above, very close and a must gain for the Tories.
Happy viewing.
Hey, thanks for that EC and good to see you back. I’ll be very interested to hear everyones thoughts on the results tomorrow. Perhaps I should put up an open thread?