British Election – what to watch for… May 6, 2010Posted by WorldbyStorm in Britain, British Labour Party, British Politics, Uncategorized.
EamonnCork posted this comment earlier, and in the shameless tradition of the CLR I’m reposting it as a post proper!
For anyone who’s watching tonight, there are some early declaring constituencies which will give a good idea as to what’s happening (though, more than any other time since 1974, this time we’ll probably have to stay up through it all to see how it pans out, and it may actually be a bit like an Irish election where the swing is not completely uniform and is affected by local factors in some cases).
11.30pm: Sunderland Central: Last time out Labour 47%, Tory 25%, Libdem 21%, should stay Labour but will give an indication of the kind of swing against the government and who is benefiting. Slim Tory chance, if they get this they’ll win a majority and it’s time to go to bed already.
12.45: Birmingham Edgbaston: last time out Labour 43%, Tory 39%, Libdem13%. An almost cast iron Tory gain, if Labour hold this one then Brown will be the next PM.
12.45: Birmingham Ladywood: last time out Labour 51%, Libdem 31%, Tory 9%. Labour should hold on but if there was to be a significant Libdem breakthrough this is one they’d take. Labour since 1945 except for 1969 when the Libs won the seat in a by-election and lost it the following year.
1.00: Leeds North East: last time out Labour 45%, Tory 30%, Libdem 22%. Will be close and if the Tories take it they’ll get a majority.
1.00: Telford: last time out labour 48 Tory 34 libdem 14. predicted Tory gain, if they don’t take this they’ll be at least 40 short of a majority.
1.00: Tooting: last time out Labour 43%, Tory 30%, Libdem 19%. A nailbiter that could go either way, again a good indicator of whether the wind is at Cameron’s back or whether he’ll fall short. Slight fancy for the tories here. Labour have won every time since the constituency was founded in 1974.
Vale of Clwyd: last time out Labour 42%, Tory 29%, Libdem 12%. Same as above, very close and a must gain for the Tories.