The Cedar Lounge Revolution

A ‘new’ threat to the coalition’s survival… say it ain’t so! August 17, 2010

Got to admit the report in yesterday’s Irish Times that ‘[Noel] Grealish threat on vote casts doubt over Coalition’s survival’ isn’t exactly earth-shaking news. Let’s consider the back story.

The former Progressive Democrats TD said yesterday he would have no hesitation in voting against the Government if it failed to protect frontline services and the most vulnerable in society.

Grealish has, since talks with FF that went nowhere in the face of FF electoral collapse, been moving slightly further away from the Coalition orbit – at least in the sense of concentrating on local rather than national issues (although, who isn’t these days?). But really, what choice does the man have? He’s nominally an Independent, but as is noted…

Mr Grealish is one of four Independent deputies who have arrangements with Mr Cowen to support the Government.
They include his former party leader Mary Harney, who is Minster for Health, the Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry, and the South Kerry deputy Jackie Healy Rae.

Which places him in an interesting, some would say awkward, position with his fate tied to perhaps the least popular government in living memory – and when one puts it that way that’s really saying something. He doesn’t want to bring the government down. Outside of the Labour party and Sinn Féin (and perhaps Fine Gael depending on the day) there are few enough who have that ambition at this point in time. For who could know how the chips will fall, and while Batt O’Keefe may be talking the situation up,

Mr O’Keeffe said that, notwithstanding the changes, he had no doubt the Government would survive.
He said next December’s budget, which will seek €3 billion in cutbacks and taxes, may well prove to be a turning point in this electoral cycle.
Hmmm… does he mean in the sense that the situation will worsen even more for FF? He does not.
“At the end of the budget, we can hold our heads up and say it was tough but fair.”
Mr O’Keeffe, the Taoiseach’s closest confidant in Cabinet, contended that Mr Cowen had shown real leadership during the crisis and claimed that would yield political dividends for Fianna Fáil.
“He has stuck hard and fast by the notion that the nation comes first and the party comes second.
“Two years away from an election we are still convinced in Fianna Fáil that it’s all to play for.
“From Cork, we are used to good ground hurling. And for the most part we ignore the hurlers on the ditch,” he said.

Now, it’s not absolutely clear from the text of the article whether O’Keefe was responding directly or indirectly to Grealish. If the former that’s an exciting game he’s playing. More likely not, one presumes.

But then again Grealish is using a rhetoric which seems to place him distinctly outside the camp.

Mr Grealish said his threat to vote against the Government was not an idle one. He said he had been a loyal, solid supporter of the Government since the PDs were abolished.

“For me it is one cutback too many when staff providing essential services are let go by the HSE while billions continues to be pumped into the banks.

“Have we gone too far with the banks? Where is it going to end? When we started out with recapitalisation we were told it was going to be between €5 and €7 billion. Now it’s up to €30 billion and rising. Enough is enough,” said Mr Grealish.

As it happens reading that I wondered whether there was any chance the good deputy for Galway West might be induced to join a rebooted Progressives Democrats redux , you know the one – that shadowy outfit that Michael McDowell is maybe/maybe not setting up. Because that certainly would be one way to cut the Gordian knot that faces him and would gift that party one sitting TD before the next election. On the other hand, Grealish was in discussions with Fianna Fáíl before the demise of the original PDs, and his language above – particularly that criticism of NAMA is one which – if we are believe this individual has any insight into matters McDowell, is unlikely to be particularly positively received in that quarter.

So perhaps this is yet another repositioning of the good ship Grealish in advance of whatever comes next into a political space some way distant of the decisions of the past three years. I’ve said it before, cleverest man on the block in that regard is without question Joe Behan who resigned from FF at the time when it was most sensible to do so. Not for him the necessity to try to explain away what’s come before or to have to ask rhetorical questions as regards issues where votes have been solid hitherto.

But to move back someways, the truth is that the Government in now making it through three full years, and with now less than 24 month to go to the election has already, on some levels had some measure of achievement simply by surviving.

All government’s operate on borrowed time, each is in its own way a dead government walking. But some are deader than others, and this one surely has had serious damage inflicted upon it.

And there is no end of more damage coming down the line.

Mr O’Keeffe, a TD for Cork North West, was speaking in the wake of a series of defections and illnesses that have served to make the Government’s position less secure than at that start of 2010.
These include the retirement of Martin Cullen; developments where a number of Fianna Fáil Oireachtas members lost the party whip; the two Independent TDs who support the Government opposing stag hunting legislation; and the fact that a small number of Fianna Fáil TDs have serious medical conditions that might necessitate resignation on health grounds.
The Government is also facing increasing pressure to hold the three byelections, in Donegal South West, Waterford and Dublin South. If, as expected, Opposition parties win all three, the Government will have to rely on the support of Independents.

Byelections before or after the Budget. That’s crucial. If after the Budget the byelections are less important (not least since one of the seats was that held by the saintly George Lee). If before, well then it get’s messy and hence the noise about the frontline services will swell from unexpected quarters. General thinking on this issue is most definitely after the Budget.

So my sense is that they’ll probably make it through this Budget one way or another, but, in poor shape. Grealish’s language alone allows for some wriggle room. He wants ‘frontline services’ protected. Protected they will be, at least on paper. €30 billion upsets him? Well, awful beyond any dream of unreason as NAMA there are limits on how much can and will be sent its way. Just in time for that all important Budget vote.

Another Budget after that? Well, at that point if – and this seems all too likely – the economic situation hasn’t improved significantly, that’s it. They’ll hardly stagger to that point. And beyond? It hardly matters given that an election will be six or so months later.

It’s a curious balance that’s being struck here between those who know that they’ll ultimately fall, but hope that something will come up – as well as enjoying the remaining period in power. Or if not enjoying at least living through.