Square me this circle… September 23, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy.trackback
Tell us about those CSO economic figures again.
Bloxham’s chief economist Alan McQuaid said the overall figures were “disappointing to say the least”.
“While one can’t argue with the CSO that it would have been hard to repeat the strong first quarter-on-quarter increase in real GDP in the April-June period, the fact that it actually fell 1.2 per cent in the second quarter is a serious cause for concern,” he said.
…
“This in turn will only add to the pressure on the Government to deliver a further €3-4 billion in budgetary adjustments in the December Budget and at the same time try and boost activity/growth in the economy,” he said.
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“This in turn will only add to the pressure on the Government to deliver a further €3-4 billion in budgetary adjustments in the December Budget and at the same time try and boost activity/growth in the economy,” he said.
I can square it. They’re using the weasel terminology of the GOP and the Tories, and really mean “gut welfare state provision, and tax cuts for the rich”.
I think I’ve bored on about this before, but it really does involve using terms like “business confidence” as some kind of magic spell, whereby if you can only keep cutting long and hard enough, there will come a point where businesses will think “right, now we really believe you” and start throwing their money into the country.
Which does rather confuse the difference between
(a) policies that businesses would, all things considered, like to be implemented
(b) the fact that what really improves business confidence is selling more stuff.
Bloxham’s interest is in maintaining Ireland at the ‘edge of chaos’ and extracting maximum bond returns for their clients out of us.
They assume that at the point of no return the ECB/IMF will be invited in and will succeed in disciplining the populace better than the government. Perhaps it is FF/Green policy to drive things to that point and then hand over to FG/Labour.
We shall see.
That’s absolutely true. And it’s a fact little commented upon, or should I say almost never commented upon, in the media.
And that ties in with what both EWI and EJH have said as well about the innate contradictions between what is wanted by various players and what is actually good for the economy.
I have a semi-apocalyptic vision of FG/Lab calling in the IMF (the inevitable half of the equation) and FF utterly reinventing itself as a populist nationalist party in opposition, driving the stooges of foreign financial imperialism from power hand-in-hand with SF in 2015.
Hmmm… that’d be a short Dáil term for FG/LP, although then again, as you describe it, that’s not such a surprise!
Surely you don’t want to percolate a general election,
Because if the next government is formed whiter it is
Labour with Galmore, fine gael, or even Fianna Fáil
With Brian Lenihan it will be far harsher budgets than this enfeebled
Government is capable of carrying out. It the same result as Charles Haughey
Election in 1987 or more recently George Papandreou s PASOK.
Indeed the opposition already looks like the lib /con coalition.
It may be best to let this government to run it’s course, its is very difficult for
me to write this because loath this government as the next man for destroying this
country.
What a possible program for government. In the next goverment shall look like.
http://www.solidnet.org/index.php/greece-communist-party-of-greece-/593-cp-of-greece-all-the-measures-that-have-already-passed-and-the-forthcoming-barbarous-measures-of-the-updated-memorandum-en-ru
The Keenan view on the disappointing numbers for the last quarter in todays indo:
Hopes for a second quarter of growth were dashed, largely because the giant chemicals industry imported a lot of stuff to go into blockbuster drugs and other fancy products. It can give only grim satisfaction to Messrs Cowen and Lenihan that these growth-depressing imports will eventually reappear as hugely valuable exports.
Have I missed something? Is the balance of payments same as the fiscal deficit same as the declining GDP now? Do we have an indigenous cottage industry producing inputs for big pharma?
DublinDilettante
I have a semi-apocalyptic vision …
Here is a an even worse vision … on the basis of the latest polling data, it may well be that Labour have the largest popular vote but are pipped to the post by FG who by dint of a wider-spread organization are still likely to be the largest party in the next Dail.
Then Gilmore demands the top job on the basis of the popular vote, Kenny refuses pointing out it is the Dail not the people who elect the Taoiseach, driving Gilmore in the arms of a waiting FF led by a revitalized Lenny (who obviously would like to keep his current job on Upper Merrion St).
Bartley, re: the post electoral dyanmic. I think your analysis is uncomfortably closer to the truth than the bland assumption that after the next election it’ll be FG/Lab and maybe a few others. FF, as an organisation wholly devoted to keeping it’s parliamentary members in power and it’s extra-parlimentary networks plugged into government institutions, will not relish even a couple of years in opposition. Far better, from their perspective, to spend those five years as a minority partner with Gilmore as Taoiseach and Lenny or Martin as Tanaiste and get the organisation back to fighting fitness for 2017 and after. Also, what none of the polls reflect, in my opininon, is the full force of the FF electoral propaganda machine and the influence of its fifth columnists in the media who are activated for elections. You can see them trying out various memes (Anglo is a long term investment; the markets are spooked by a FG/Lab goverment resulting in higher bond rates etc) at the moment, but they’ll have a seductive message honed in time for the election and they’ll fool of lot of people who are now vowing never to vote FF again. I think FF will do a lot better in 2012, or earlier, than polls suggest.
Groan. You could be right. But Labour would never…would they?
Groan again.
All I’ll say is: 1992.
On radio 1 this lunchtime, some psephologist was arguing that the Fianna Fail vote had ‘bottomed out’ (as opposed to ‘bottoms up’ chez Cowen) and that from now to the election ‘the only way is up’.
Many brave hearts are asleep in the deep, so beware, BEWARE!
On paper SF are saying the right things. More tax, cap on high pay in public service ( maybe make the seniors pay the levy), and lots of other good stuff.I think the far left should call for a left goverment of Labour and SF plus left independents. Call for sufficiuent candidates for a majority which excludes the bourgeois parties.
FGs main platform is that they were not in gov. and that they are a bit more honest than FF, plus with Noonan and Bruton they are not as stupid in economics as FF. I say this in being able to count etc. not vis a vis the priscriptions.
WE are in a spiral downwards. I see no easy solutions. What more than 30 billion down the drain with the banks etc. That is about one years take in taxes. As a country we are bound to pay, the question is who amongst us should.
This is where we should obviously call it a day with Anglo, the dracula bank. Then the cuts/taxes should be on the rich, the ones we can get. Forget about teh tax exiles, that is the point of exile, all we can do about say Smurfits and Bonos taxes is whinge.Though we could make it a bit harder for them to claim.
A massive restructuring of the economy with a concentration on real sustainable jobs. A difficult task.Every interest group will claim to be of systemic importance. See the successful scam by the so-called motor industry in the last budget. How the Germans and Japanese must have laughed as the Irish subsided their industries.
A focus on education and an end of self deceiving crap about our standards.
A shorter working week rather than redundancies in private companies. Most workers would prefer to tighten a belt ( I know it is hard) than see some survive while others are thrown to the wolves.
Let us be real it will be difficult no matter who is in power. With luck and depending on the world situation (yes, we are part of a world economy) I would guess 20 years.
Oh, and a trial of the guilty ones. If Iceland can do it so can we. And if need be a constitutional amendment so we can backdate it if there is wriggle room. I want the bastards in jail. I want confiscation of hidden assets, and I include spouses and children. I want vengeance on behalf of our children driven on to the dole and exile. I want vengeance on behalf of those in negative equity who cannot afford the repayments and who in some cases are driven to suicide.
Let us have a class war or rather let us admit there is one and they declared it and are winning.Remember that it was Seanie who wanted the carers hit.
Time for anger and an end of politeness.
That said, could I politely ask – you couldn’t do us a favour and put a line break between your paragraphs? When your posts are quite long it makes them hard to read, and that doesn’t do their content justice.
I must have been in NZ when the carers thing happened, because I hadn’t heard of it until now.
Having googled for ‘Sean Fitzpatrick carers’ I genuinely feel sick.