The first poll of Autumn…

Forget, if you can, Noel Grealish’s thoughts about how;

…he said he would no longer be supporting the Government and would be writing to the Taoiseach and Minister for Health to inform them of his decision.
“I’ve taken a stance on this. I’ve said it publicly all along that I would find it difficult to support a Government if these cuts are implemented,” he said. “I think I would be wrong of me to walk into Dáil Éireann next Wednesday and sit on the Government benches while this is hanging over us.
“I will not be supporting this Government from next Wednesday onwards until I’m assured that there will be an adequate service and that patient safety will be protected at all costs.”

Well, who knows what assurances the Government might find it’s way to offering him come Budget day? And what precisely does he mean about ‘no longer supporting’? Does this mean that he won’t be voting with the Government on all issues or only some?

But the first poll of Autumn has arrived…

Support among decided voters for Fianna Fáil was at 22 per cent, less than half its 2007 election result and behind Labour on 35 per cent and Fine Gael on 30 per cent, the TV3/Millward Brown Lansdowne poll showed.



First up, this isn’t the same as some of the more – ahem – unusual polls that grace the pages of certain Sunday newspapers. Millward Brown Lansdowne are reputable, and being reputable that’s quite a figure they’re showing.
So, lesson one, Labour’s tactic of ‘say nothing, do nothing’ continues to pay off for them. The wailing and gnashing of teeth, not just from the Government, but from sections of the Opposition, will be audible. 35 per cent is a good solid performance. No, wait, what am I saying, it’s remarkable stuff for a Labour Party used to much lower figures. It also has the virtue of providing a comfortable margin for the vote to slump downward while still allowing for a potentially historic number of LP TDs. Let’s recall that in 1992 at that year’s General Election Labour received 19.5% of the vote and 33 seats. And interestingly Fine Gael received 24.5% and 45 seats. Even more interestingly, in a way, is that at the previous election Fine Gael on 29.3% received 55 seats.
Of course, that’s then, this is now. No-one is arguing that Labour will get 55 seats. As noted by Bartley they simply don’t have the organisation on the ground to compete. But a 35% lead indicates 33 plus. If they manage to retain polling figures in the low 20s they’re looking at matching that 33.
There’s more. If the following is correct it’s bad news for Sinn Féin and even more so for the Green Party:

Fianna Fáil is well beaten in third place, Sinn Féin on 4% and the Green Party at 2% [incorrectly reported on the RTÉ website as 4%]. Independents and others are on 8%.
Millward Brown Lansdowne found the public are evenly divided on the need for an immediate General Election.
49% want to vote now, 47% are opposed and 4% do not know.

It’s difficult to tell whether Labour have cannibalised the SF vote, it’s depressing for the GP (though they might salvage a seat or two on these figures), and telling that Independents retain a fairly strong bloc (though how that would shake out in an election is anyone’s guess, perhaps there’s still a fair bit of FF vote in there).
Worth noting that the Don’t Knows on the unadjusted figures is 17%. That’s a fair figure and one wonders what the impact will be in an actual election.
Also worth noting that for Enda Kenny FG are in the 30s. Just barely, but enough to placate at least some of his antagonists.

You’d wonder too, well I would, how this affects the on again off again Lenihan leadership bid (at least if one is to believe the current issue of the Phoenix, and by the way, hat tip to Irish Election Literature Blog who noted that Mary Hanafin’s stock is rising. The Phoenix posits that she and Micheál Martin have forged an alliance). Who would want to be leader before the inevitable impact with the electorate. And who, genuinely, would want to be leader after it (although, that’s a question that the Milibands may well be asking in a geographically different context – actually, while holding that thought it reminds me of the old Denim song ‘The Osmonds’ which had a chorus that went something along the lines of ‘In the ’70′s there were Osmonds, lots of little Osmonds, there were lots of Osmonds everywhere’. Couldn’t help feeling something a little bit similar when I opened the Guardian this morning in the print edition). Indeed the Millward Brown poll delivers the following in its key findings:
4. Key Findings

A small majority believe that Brian Cowen should not continue as leader of Fianna Fáil, however support for the Taoiseach among Fianna Fáil voters remains robust (73%). Brian Lenihan is the clearly preferred successor amongst those who believe that the Taoiseach should go (46%), compared to just 15% for Micheál Martin.

Of course, we’re not just talking about the small band of FF voters.

As an experiment take 10% or so of the LP vote and hand it back to FF and you’d see them on an anaemic but still stronger than FG 32% and Labour in a creditable third place with 25%. How to interpret that 10% and it’s provenance?
Well, it’s always difficult to tell the voting loyalties of any bloc of the electorate in polls. But I bet FF rue the day they unleashed the attack dogs on the public sector.

By the way, I was amused to read in the IT that:

The survey was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday, before data showed yesterday an unexpected fall in second quarter GDP.

Somehow, and this is just a wild guess, I think that those figures won’t make the slightest difference to the electorate.

And MillwardBrown back up that proposition…

However a large majority (88%) say the issue has not changed how they will vote –given the poor result for Fianna Fáil it is reasonable to speculate that most voters had already made up their minds.