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The senior bondholders… ‘can’t be touched’ to ‘sharing the burden’ in the space of six weeks. November 26, 2010

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.
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Reading this, for some reason I was reminded of this, and this… and this… and most especially this

October 7th to November 26th…

Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - November 26, 2010

Paul Krugman had a good article in yesterdays New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/opinion/26krugman.html?_r=1

It ended with the lines
“But Ireland is now in its third year of austerity, and confidence just keeps draining away. And you have to wonder what it will take for serious people to realize that punishing the populace for the bankers’ sins is worse than a crime; it’s a mistake.”

FergusD - November 26, 2010

So sensible, and yet nobody listens, at least politicians. Perhaps because for the EU leaders it isn’t about Ireland or its banks but about THEIR banks, in the UK (Cameron’s words) and Germany especially that are in danger and will take a hit if Irish banks are not propped up?

2. Jim Monaghan - November 26, 2010

Seems like common sense. But why is it too radical for the Labour Party to say clearly that in government they will insist on pain sharing.

Pope Epopt - November 26, 2010

Yep – and the bond markets are pricing in the assumption of some kind of renegotiation. Presumably that puts them to the left of the Labour Party.

3. EamonnCork - November 26, 2010

Don’t want to be all Mark P about this but Gilmore’s obsession with showing that he can make ‘tough choices’ and is ‘fit to govern’ are making me consider switching away from the Labour Party in a general election for the first time. Though, and I’m genuinely interested in this, what do ULA members who think both Labour and SF are of the same ilk as FF and FG think us letfist yokels should do with our votes at the next election. We have to vote for someone.

dmfod - November 26, 2010

run for election yourself :)

It’s the same in my home constituency – a choice between a corrupt gombeen independent, FF, FG, Labour, SF and assorted random independents. I generally opted for the latter if there was anything remotely leftish about them in order to register a protest vote. I know a lot of people prefer to spoil their vote if there are no left candidates though.

EamonnCork - November 26, 2010

I was thinking more along the lines of riding into Skibbereen on a tank. Failing that, it’ll be the old SF/Lab 1-2.

Mark P - November 26, 2010

Eamonn, I think that there would be different points of view about that within the ULA.

The ULA will hopefully be standing in quite a few rural constituencies, so across quite a lot of the country there should actually be a decent left candidate. And in some other rural constituencies there’ll probably be a leftish independent, who would probably be get my vote in the absence of a left party candidate.

If you really do have no left candidate at all, some people in ULA would probably advise you to vote for SF or Labour as the best of a bad bunch. Personally I’d advise to either stand yourself or spoil your vote.

In the constituency I used to be registered in (a suburban one) there was often a left candidate but there wasn’t in the last general election. I travelled out there to spoil my vote by leaving an angry message on the ballot. I was given out to by the gf for not voting Green! At one level I sort of feel that the events of the last three years have been orchestrated by a benevolent God just to vindicate my position in a domestic argument.

ejh - November 26, 2010

Not all that benevolent, I think…

Mark P - November 26, 2010

Well yes, mass immiseration might be seen as something of a downside but in these difficult times I prefer to accentuate the positive.

4. anarchaeologist - November 26, 2010

Krugman’s article is the second item on the RTÉ news at the moment…

Ghandi - November 26, 2010

RTE are putting a Joe Taylor voiceover of the interview on their site

5. shea - November 26, 2010

noticed the shift this morning on radio one. hair cuts there calling it. where do you think the momentum for this is coming from? have alot of time on my hands and have a pilgimage every day from the central bank to government buildings, the dept of finance and the frount of leinster hse. looking for protests. theres been a good few but extreamly poor numbers, very much doubht they where a factor. social network sites though have been facsinateing with people sharing articles and giving there opinion. paul gogerty was talking about getting a lot of emails so maybe people are taking it on themselves to lobby there td’s. who knows. where ever it is anyway should be nurtured.

6. CL - November 26, 2010

“default by a small country offers no panacea, only a one-way ticket to a Stone Age economy.” Jack O’Connor, President, ICTU.
http://theirelandinstitute.com/citizen/c03-oconnor-afterneo-page.html

7. CL - November 26, 2010

“Siptu general secretary Jack O’Connor said that the four-year “roadmap to recovery” had all the hallmarks of a roadmap back to the stone age.” Morning Star
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/index.php/news/content/view/full/98092

“Yet when you come to examine it the original affluent society was none other than the hunter’s – in which all the people’s material wants were easily satisfied.” Marshall Sahlins, author of Stone Age Economics.

8. CMK - November 27, 2010

6.7% interest rate for IMF/ECB/EU bailout. I think Morgan Kelly argued that anything above 2% would sink us. Are they trying to f**k this country up?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1126/economy_bailout.html

9. CL - November 27, 2010

Irish times says..maybe…maybe not
-The interest rate for a nine-year EU/IMF loan would be lower than the 6.7 per cent being quoted in some reports today, a source involved in the talks has indicated.-IT

Karl Whelan wants the same deal as Greece.
“Piling on an interest rate of even 6.1% on to the likely debt levels would greatly reduce the prospect of Ireland avoiding sovereign default. An interest rate of 7% would be grossly unacceptable.

Put simply, if these reports are true, the government needs to refuse any deal based on such a high interest rate. Indeed, unless the government feel compelled to play their role in a morality play in which Ireland is used as cautionary tale, they should refuse any deal featuring a rate higher than the 5% rate that Greece obtained.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2010/nov/24/ireland-bailout-austerity-measures
There are other economists who say that the Greece rate is too high and a default is inevitable. Of course Ireland is not Greece. And Portugal is not Ireland..

EWI - November 27, 2010

Of course Ireland is not Greece.

Yes, we weren’t lying to the EU about the state of our finances with the connivance of Goldman Sachs (lying to the public, of course, is a different matter).

And there’s a lot more difference between Ireland and Iceland at this stage than “six months and a letter”. They successfully told their private banks to go take a hike with their losses, and they’re putting the former government who allowed this state of affairs to come about on trial.

CMK - November 27, 2010

It’s a certainty, in my opinion, that this government will negotiate the worst possible deal. At every step in this crisis where they have presented with a range of options they have selected the one which protected the bondholders and banks while screwing the citizen through increased debt and interest.

There’s a tale to be told here that will probably only come out in a couple of decades time. Someone, somewhere, has the ear of government or has something on Lenihan/Cowen and the rest of them that leads them to consistently pick the worst options. It can’t just be stupidity, incompetence or ignorance.

10. Jim Monaghan - November 27, 2010

“Of course Ireland is not Greece. And Portugal is not Ireland”
I like the irony. If we had lost a war the indemnities could not be higher. It looks like the cuts will hardly pay the interest.

11. CL - November 27, 2010

The orthodox commentariat is now concerned that negotiations with the IMF/EU conclude before the ‘markets’ open on Monday, and that the Memorandum of Agreement be such as to appease the ‘markets’.

That the timing and content of an agreement which seeks to determine the direction of Irish economic policy for years to come should be geared to placate an irrational herd of finance capitalists, aka ‘the markets’, is clear evidence that those who purport to lead the Irish people are gripped by serious and dangerous insanity.

EWI - November 27, 2010

That the timing and content of an agreement which seeks to determine the direction of Irish economic policy for years to come should be geared to placate an irrational herd of finance capitalists, aka ‘the markets’, is clear evidence that those who purport to lead the Irish people are gripped by serious and dangerous insanity.

It was illuminating of the mindset to see that Spectator editor on Browne during the week (the one who kept referring to Ireland in context of “mainland Britain”). He was in absolute horror every time the other two panelists (Reuters and… FT?) advocated telling the bondholders where to go.

I wasn’t surprised to learn that this very well-fed-looking individual was formerly a bonds trader himself.


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