The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Dublin polling figures… and the position of Sinn Féin November 25, 2010

Reading IELB’s post on the Red C poll a few more thoughts struck me. The detail, the detail. It’s always in the detail isn’t it? Now, RedC is notoriously unforthcoming on the regional breakdown of its polling, and perhaps rightly so given that the polling numbers might not be sufficient to give absolute clarity (or as much as such polls can ever offer). But the figures mentioned for Dublin are pretty amazing when one thinks about it. Now, of course, as was noted I think by Mark P, this may well be superseded by the arrival of the IMF. But if so then the situation has presumably worsened since then for… well… let’s see…

All this has to be gleaned from the published reports in the SBP, but nonetheless, some nuggets are evident.

Fine Gael support is now comfortably, though not spectacularly, ahead of its showing at the last election. The party can anticipate significant seat gains in the general election…

…It’s support is strongest in rural areas – though behind Labour in Dublin – and is slightly more committed than other parties.

Which leaves Fianna Fáil where in Dublin?

Fianna Fáil support has not just collapsed among the working class. The fact is that at every level of society, in every geographical area, Fianna Fáil support is being hollowed out. The party is behind Labour – ie. in third place – in every geographical area. In Dublin, Labour support (35 per cent) is more than twice Fianna Fáil’s (17 per cent).

And even more remarkably…

Sinn Féin now has marginally more working class support than Fiánna Fáil [this appears to be a national figure, rather than a Dublin figure - wbs]

I say ‘remarkably’ because as we known Fianna Fáil has exercised a firm grip on working class support across decades, this indeed has been the driver of much of their success. One might wonder whether one legacy of the Ahern years, and the particularly dismal Cowen leadership, was that the tent became too broad, that they began to take for granted that constituency, particularly when it was evident that both Labour and Sinn Féin could – were the circumstances right – make some inroads there.

It hardly needs to be said that cross class coalitions are the only way that populist right of centre parties can build support, and the same is largely true of left of centre social democratic formations. One delusion of the recent past was the idea that the Irish ‘middle class’, again a term notoriously difficult to define, was sweeping all before it. What’s interesting is how that seems to have subsided. What will be even more interesting is what the middle class will be seen as being in the near future. But it seems reasonable to propose that in a situation where living standards are dropping sharply more are exiting the middle class, or at least beginning to feel an unwelcome pinch (and in many cases much worse) that might remind them of the true state of affairs, and therefore might turn to alternatives.

And politically that for parties such as FF requires an anchor, as it were, in the working class – however broadly we define that term, sufficient support that they can depend upon numbers when circumstances get tight.

It’s basic basic stuff, and it requires more than simple lip service but an ability to appear to articulate working class concerns. Ahern was actually quite good at that. Cowen, as we know, much much less good, and due to his own socio-economic tendencies unwilling to shape the discourse in such a way as to do so. Hence, and notably, as picked up by Tomboktu, the talk about taxpayers rather than a broader term – which, before the knives come out, is not to say that taxpayers can’t be working class, or that the working class is simply a passive receiver of public provision, or whatever, but simply that articulating working class concerns is a complex thing at the best of times – as most of our further left parties have discovered.

There’s another intriguing snippet in the RedC poll in the Sunday Business Post, and this relates to Sinn Féin and more broadly the smaller parties, though the gulf between the next largest party, the Green Party, languishing on 3 per cent (a terrible terrible result and one which when one factors in a second preference share of 7 per cent according to Red C is near enough one that would see few or none of their TDs returned), and Sinn Fein is all of 8 per cent . Sinn Féin on 11 per cent , up 2 per cent is a good result, a breakout from their comfort zone of 7 to 10 per cent , albeit within the margin of error.

But look at where that support appears to be coming from. In the poll Fianna Fáil drops by 1 per cent, the Green Party by 1 per cent and Independents/Others by 2 per cent.

Obviously the support could have come from all and any of those, but the Independents figure is most telling. It may suggest that the small band of FF supporters who are hiding out there are being forced by broader circumstances to choose, and they’re not returning to Fianna Fáil – at least not yet.

Irish Eagle last week, raised the question as to whether there might be some movement amongst FF TDs or councillors to Sinn Féin in the event of a particularly serious wipe out of the larger party at the General Election. Got to say I tend to think that’s highly unlikely – though perhaps one or two councillors might go across. How that would impact on Sinn Féin is an interesting question. I imagine they wouldn’t be hugely welcome amongst at least some within that party.

But the SBP results perhaps point to some FF voters, a small percentage – obviously, drifting towards SF.

There’s an alternative reading which is that as the election draws near, and with one event or another, SF becomes a poll of attraction for former Independent/Others voters as it assumes an aura of success. That’s not so unlikely either, we certainly saw aspects of that dynamic in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Or, most likely there’s some mixture of both at play here. FF voters shifting slowly across and Independents/Others doing likewise.

What’s particularly of note is the SBP analysis of this by Pat Leahy.

Sinn Féin breaks the 10 per cent ceiling for the first time in early two years, following weeks of a higher media profile (not least in the Donegal byelection campaign) and the announcement by party leader Gerry Adams that he will seek to become a member of the next Dáil.

IT is somewhat surprising that SF has not made more political capital from the economic crisis, with its working class base (where unemployment is most evident) and it’s ‘people versus the powerful’ economic rhetoric.

And specifically the following:

Adams’ decision to enter politics in the Republic could be a tuning point for the party’s fortunes. He is a national figure in a way that none of the party’s TDs is, and will be able to speak to a cohort of voters in a way that SF hasn’t yet managed. The legacy of the conflict means that large parts of the electorate will still find SF untrustworthy and the middle classes will find their economic policy unappealing. But the party is not trying to reach all the electorate – just its target markets.

We’re used, as evidenced by some of the views aired on the thread a week or so ago when Adams announced his candidacy, on the left to the idea that he would be a deeply divisive figure who would simply cause problems for SF. But this poll suggests otherwise, that there might indeed be a consolidation or even increase in the SF vote on foot of his arrival in politics in the South.

As the SBP notes: SF now has marginally more working class support than FF [in this poll].

And Richard Colwell of Red C directly points to Adams and the High Court victory as assisting SF.

SF saw the biggest [poll] increases. This followed media coverage surrounding its High Court challenge that forced the by-election in Donegal South West, and also Gerry Adams’ announcement that he would stand for election to the Dáil in Louth at the next general election.

Which of course means that the loss of Arthur Morgan, and I’ve noted before how I believe that is a loss to SF, has been of little or no effect to them in polling terms.

And let’s wind back to the point that Pat Leahy makes, that for SF success can be measured effectively in small increases in the vote share, at least at this point in time. Few would argue that SF could see the near meteoric rise that Labour has seen in the past three years – and let’s not forget, as Leahy notes, just how remarkable that rise has been from 14 per cent in 2008 to 17 per cent last year and now 27 per cent. At best it seems reasonable to suggest that over the next year or so SF could add a couple of extra percentages on to its tally. And yet, with Adams on board is it entirely fanciful to suggest that they might be able to reach out a little further (after all, few enough who currently vote SF are going to walk away because he’s in the mix).

Now, none of this is to ignore the critique that the contradictions between government in the North and running in the South come into sharper focus, or that it remphasises questions as to the nature of SF and where it seeks to go. But the more I think about it the more I think this may have been a clever clever move, at least in terms of bolstering their vote share.