This budget will just be a spit on a fire…… November 24, 2010
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.Tags: ireland
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Vincent Brownes show on TV3 is often compulsive viewing……
Last nights show brought home the enormity of the Financial hole the country is in.
Vincent Browne Show 23rd November 2010
Our Debt
€90bn – Current Sovereign Debt
€20bn – Prefunded Debt
€23bn – Redeeming bonds over next 3 years
€35bn – Bank Recapitalisation
€45bn – Cost of funding the the country over next 3 years
€100bn -Short term ECB liquidity to Irish banks
€30bn – Irish Central Bank master loan repurchase agreements
€343bn total
Annual Interest Payments anything from €14 to €18 Billion .
Our current Annual income approx €32 Billion
As Brian Lucey put it “ This budget will just be a spit on a fire”
Community Platform campaign for the introduction of a wealth tax in the upcoming Budget. November 24, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.1 comment so far
Thanks for the following announcement from the Community Platform.
The Government is proposing to introduce a property tax in the forthcoming Budget. The definition of property likely to be used will be limited to people’s homes and is not likely to include assets such as foreign properties, stocks and bonds, land, luxury items such as paintings and vintage cars etc.
The Community Platform (a network of 30 national community organisations working to address poverty, inequality and social exclusion) is suggesting, as an alternative, to levy a wealth tax on net assets valued over €1m. This would only apply to individuals with high incomes (over €100,000 or €200,000 for a couple). Certain liabilities e.g. mortgages, borrowings would be excluded. In addition, the Community Platform is suggesting that there would be exemptions to ensure that productive assets are not levied – such as farms and business assets.
To add your voice to the petition please log onto http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/wealthtax/
Also to view a DVD of the Community Platform Wealth Tax proposal log onto here.
Please circulate details of the campaign within your organisations, amongst your members and to anybody concerned with tax justice.
Most likely we are going to be where we were always going to be… November 24, 2010
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So what was the consensus yesterday amongst at least some who might have an insight into these matters?
Cowen would survive the evening. And that being the case the Budget would go forward. And that being the case the Budget would be passed, if not by outright Fine Gael support then some form of acquiescence on the part of that party and – perhaps – the LP. And that being the case the election call that sparked all of this weeks turmoil, was it only Monday morning that this phase of the crisis started, would not be called until… er… February, dependent upon the technicalities of seeing all the legislation, including the Finance Bills, through to safe passage, which would leave us… er… in March.
Which was always more or less the schedule, particularly if the by-elections went ahead and seats were lost.
And so, after all the angst, and yes, the Budget still has to pass – and may not, chances are we wind up where we would have been if nothing out of the ordinary, however we define that these days, had taken place on Monday.
That Donegal byelection… November 24, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.16 comments
Now, it’s no surprise that if Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin wins on Thursday at least some of us round here won’t be tearing hair out or rending garments. Doherty is more left wing, and better able to articulate that position, than some give him credit (indeed a friend of mine who is a very very level headed community activist told me last week how in their view on TV Doherty has been head and shoulders above the other candidates in presenting a left of centre view). He and Sinn Féin have been enormously hard working in that constituency. Moreover his party is the only one in the Dáil that has presented any sort of serious alternative to the current orthodoxy. And there has been a palpable deepening of their economic analysis over the past three years, something others on the left could well do by emulating.
The outcome may well be otherwise, I always felt that Doherty’s day would be at the General Election. But, the weekend national RedC poll gives some pause for thought. Sinn Féin breaking above 10%, while within the margin of error might indicate sufficient churn for them to do a bit better than has been hitherto proposed. And that might well be, Red C poll included, sufficient to get them across the line.
Anyhow, I had to smile a little at the reports in the Sunday Business Post by Pat Leahy from the byelection constituency over the past two weeks. A mixed bag one might suggest. Last week there was some emphasis on Doherty with quotes (albeit it was positioned in a sceptical view of what he was saying – how, went the line, could anyone argue against the orthodoxy? Given that the orthodoxy until a week ago was that IMF intervention was very very unlikely, and all sinews were strained to avoid that outcome – successfully, so we were told, the question might be more accurately how could anyone argue for the orthodoxy with anything like a straight face). But there were also quotes from other candidates on the trail. For example, we were treated to Frank McBrearty of Labour as well. And the Fine Gael candidate Barry O’Neill. Not to mention Brian Ó Domhnaill of Fianna Fáil
What a difference a week makes. Doherty announced as the front-runner in a generally credible RedC poll, and what sort of report do we get this Sunday, more quotes from McBrearty, Ó Domhnaill and O’Neill’s campaign.
And Doherty? This:
But a poll published the following day shows Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty is the stand-out favourite to take a seat.
Of course the SBP could point to the fact that he occupied many more column inches the first week, and that this merely was a rebalancing, but, I couldn’t help coming away with a feeling that there was a certain ‘look over there, not here’ aspect to this. Slightly, perhaps unintentionally, but that’s the sense I was left with.
After all, for a voice that represents a divergence from the orthodoxy to be elected to the Dáil in a broadly rural constituency, and one which has had near hegemonic Fianna Fáil and independent Fianna Fáil representation (though that latter point can’t have hindered SF’s rise), is more than a slight deviation from the expected.
Good enough for them.
No. 2 in a series of /n/ November 24, 2010
Posted by Tomboktu in Fianna Fáil, International Finance, Ireland.1 comment so far
[By special request of our Webmaster]
Dáil Debates, Thursday 18 November 2010. Brian Lenihan:
” The job of Government is to protect the taxpayer. That is what we have been doing and what we are now doing. “
Not, I note, in the interests of its citizens (or its residents).
Is the cure for Ireland’s ills a 32 county Socialist Republic? Debate in Belfast this Thursday November 23, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.35 comments
Jim Corr is back….. November 23, 2010
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.Tags: jim corr
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Having campaigned against Lisbon.
Jim Corr is..
asking that the Irish people unite, as our forefathers did, and take to the streets at 11am Saturday 27th from Wood Quay Dublin, to voice our anger and concern over the actions of our politicians and what is happening to Ireland.
The Latest Sunday Business Post Red C Poll November 23, 2010
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.Tags: Irish Politics
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With the IMF in town, Four year plans on the Agenda and Bond Markets unhappy if they didn’t get a front page mention, the latest Red C Poll was almost hidden away in Last Sundays Business Post.
Of course what didn’t seem that important then, takes on added significance after Monday’s events as both the Green Party and Brian Cowen confirmed that there will now be an election early in the New Year.
That is assuming the upcoming budget is passed.
On first glance there was little in the poll. No real change amongst any of the parties, But of course it was taken before the Two Brian’s put out their International begging bowl, having denied it all the previous week.
The results were as follows
FF 17% (-1)
FG 33% (+1)
LP 27% (nc)
SF 11% (+2)
GP 3% (-1)
OTH 8% (-2)
Fine Gael will be happy enough that they are on the rise and even more delighted that they have extended their lead over Labour. Labour will be happy and it seems that the Indos campaign against Gilmore has done little or no damage.
The Greens down one is within the margin of error and maybe the party’s forcing of an Election could see Sargent and even Ryan scrape home.
The Sinn Fein increase, although only 2% to 11% is an increase that could push them over the line in constituencies such as Dublin North East, Dublin North West, Dublin South West and the two Donegals. It would even put them in the frame in places such as Cork North Central and Sligo North Leitrim. The decision of Adams to contest Louth may well be the fillip the party needed in the Republic.
The ‘Others’ down 2% may not bode well for the smaller parties on the Left nor for various Independents. I think it may also reflect the folly of electing a local Independent. Will the IMF give a damn if there are Cancer Services in Sligo, Hospitals in Monaghan or potholes to be filled in South Kerry?
Fianna Fail are now on 17%, their lowest yet. In his article about the poll Richard Colwell of Red C gave us further details and another bit of analysis that may be of interest.
He wrote…
We need to be careful now whether it has become so unpopular that voters are loath to admit they would vote Fianna Fáil, even if they intend to.
Polling analysis has revealed that parties can get so unpopular that people are ashamed to admit they will vote for that party. Instead they refuse to give a preference, or claim they are undecided.
This phenomenon, dubbed ‘the spiral of silence’, was famously demonstrated in the 1992 British elections; John Major’s Conservatives triumphed, despite polls which suggested Neil Kinnock and Labour was likely to win.
To try and counter this phenomenon, we looked at how interviewees voted at the last election.
For our ‘spiral of silence’ analysis, we then assumed that half of these undecided voters would vote the same way as they voted last time and that the other half would vote along the lines of those who gave us a preference.
The impact of this analysis in the latest poll is limited to just two of the main parties. Not surprisingly, Fianna Fáil gains share as a result, but only marginally; its first preference share increased by 2 per cent, leaving the party possibly securing 19 per cent of the vote.
Labour is the only party to lose share; dropping 1 per cent, leaving it securing 26 per cent of the vote.
Even if this analysis were taken to its extreme – and all of those who ‘don’t know’ or refused to tell us how they would vote ended up giving their first preference to the party they supported at the last election – Fianna Fáil would still secure only 21 per cent of the vote. This leaves the party with just half the share it achieved at the last election, so shy or undecided voters are certainly not the answer to its troubles. (The Green Party also may be concerned that it is the second preference of just 7 per cent of the electorate; traditionally, transfers are a strong part of the party’s electorate successes.) Nor does analysis of second-preference votes provide it with any solace. Fianna Fáil is the second preference of 9 per cent of all voters, while Fine Gael and Labour voters support each other strongly and in similar measure on second preference.
So Fianna Fail are transfer toxic and at an extreme maximum of 21%.
As Pat Leahy put it summing up the poll findings
“Whatever way you look at it , Fianna Fail, as we know it, is still on course to be destroyed.”
Dotski on Irish Polling Report, having crunched the numbers, suggested the following outcome
FG 61 (no change)
LP 55 (-2)
FF 26 (-1)
SF 14 (+7)
GP 1 (-2)
OTH 9 (-2)
*the plus/minus figures are in relation to the previous poll.
From a Poll to the real thing in Thursday’s Donegal South West By Election. It will be eagerly watched, The Fianna Fail vote especially. Whilst Pearse Doherty looks favourite, Fine Gael would want to finish ahead of Labour.
To have finished behind Labour in Donegal would put the question marks back over Enda Kenny’s head.
After the week we’ve had… Could Fianna Fail even end up in fourth spot?
Hanging on in there… until? November 23, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.1 comment so far
Sure! Why not place the Budget as the centerpiece of everything, though in truth we know that given the fact the outlines are already more than in place and that these are now sanctified by the EU/ECB/IMF combination. And why not raise Fianna Fáil’s continue participation in government to the level of national interest. Farcical really, given that the opposition, or at least the parts that will constitute any successor administration also sign up in overall approach to the shape of the Budget.
And what is the political gain here? To avoid ignominious retreat under fire, when there is a real possibility the Budget may not be passed and therefore they’ll have to…er… retreat under fire? To somehow try to put space between them and the arrival of the IMF? Well that’s not going to work given that that is going to play in every debate to come once the election is called? To hold onto sweet sweet power for another few weeks, or even months? Perhaps.
Still the numbers are curious. Pat Rabbitte believes that the budget can be passed by the Ceann Comhairle. Okay. Chris Andrews doesn’t believe it will be passed (and rarely did a man look so pale as he last night, stuck outside Government Buildings as all fell apart inside them).
It was a remarkable day in a Dáil which has had many remarkable days in the past three and a half years (I was lamenting the fact to someone yesterday that this Dáil still nominally has the best part of a year and a half to run, but too many more days like this), from the initial push by the Green Party, supposedly according to Rabbitte acting before dissident FF and/or Independent TDs went AWOL prior to the Budget, to the events of last evening and the ‘will he, won’t he’ stuff regarding Cowen remaining in government (and let me say again, I accept in that regard the criticism of the person who pointed out that the Guardian website jumped the gun in a way it simply shouldn’t have done so on that matter).
I’m not so sure about that Rabbitte’s analysis. It’s a tad self-serving, and it doesn’t quite tally with what seems to have happened. For a start no FF backbenchers actually said they wouldn’t vote for the Budget (outside those who had already indicated their ire). Furthermore although Healy-Rae and Lowry were fast out of the gate they didn’t seem to be pre-empted by the Greens, far from it. They were using this as a God-given opportunity to cut loose from the shackles of the most difficult Budget to face the country. What’s been notable, particularly in Lowry’s contributions, has been a wish to have political cover at all times in respect of what he does next. So today he upped the stakes dramatically, well, okay, not dramatically, but substantially from his position, demanding that he would only vote if the opposition and FF hammered out a Budget deal.
That may yet happen, or at least it might happen with FG. Certainly, as suggested last night, this could be a simple matter of calling the Oppositions bluff, demanding that they act in the ‘national interest’ by voting for the Budget rather than pulling the Government down (or at least those elements still remaining) either at or just after a failed Budget vote. Problem for Cowen and those who have come up with this fabulous idea is that as the Budget draws closer that begins to lose power because there is a genuine argument that a new government could better deal with the Budget, whatever about the four-year plan and other elements that they already are signed up for. And although the election will remain divisive as regards FG and the LP slugging it out for advantage it’s unlikely to be so profoundly so that they couldn’t work some sort of a deal out very rapidly indeed. Assuming they haven’t already got some informal agreements already.
But what next? Somehow I can’t help feeling that Fianna Fáil won’t gain very much at all from yesterday’s positioning.
Moving to end-game? Er… not necessarily… November 22, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.94 comments
Kudos to RosencrantzisDead for noting this on the Guardian…
Live on RTÉ, 7.05 p.m. they seem to be suggesting it’ll be a holding statement. Hmmm…
And indeed, that’s what we appear to be getting. Well, maybe no surprise there. But an election ‘at the end of this Budgetary process’. So buying into the GP line.
But the political issues are most intriguing.
I’m curious as to how this Budget can be passed in the Dáil. And then how FF backbenchers will stay on board having to face into an election but shortly afterwards. And then what happens?
Okay, so in a way they’re calling the bluff of FG in particular by implicitly demanding of FG, in the absence of Lowry/JHR, to support the Budget, thereby retaining their ‘national interest’ credentials. And blooding FG in the process. The alternative being that we arrive at the Budget, it fails and then FF dances away, a little bit and says ‘well look at them, they didn’t step up to the plate’ thereby damning FG/LP and blaming them for putting the process back even further to arrive at the now, apparently all important, Budget.
