A Year in Polls…Labour, The Left and The Greens December 21, 2010
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Greens, Irish Politics, opinion poll.Tags: Irish Politics, opinion polls
11 comments
Yet another Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post
Fianna Fáil 17 (NC)
Fine Gael 34 (+1)
Labour 23 (-4)
Greens 2 (-1)
Sinn Féin 14 (+3)
Others 10 (+2)
Adrian Kavanagh’s magic Spreadsheet on Politicalreform.ie calculates
Fianna Fáil 27, Fine Gael 66, Labour 46, Green Party 0, Sinn Féin 15, Independents 12 (including 5 United Left Alliance seats)
Whilst Dotski’s magic Spreadsheet on Irish Polling Report calculates
Fianna Fáil 23, Fine Gael 64, Labour 44, Green Party 0, Sinn Féin 21, Others 14.
I may be wrong but I suspect we may have seen the last Red C poll of the year…..
So looking at the poll in the context of the years polls…
Labour Party
In the 31st January Red C Poll they were 17% they are now at 23%.
As the election draws closer Labour are dropping from their high polling figures. That said were they to be reproduced in an Election, their current polling figures would be a record performance for the party.
In the polls Labour hit the heights during the Summer in June and then in October when they hit 27% in the Red C Polls. In September they hit 33% in an Irish Times MRBI Poll. During this time they were on the attack, the ‘Gilmore For Taoiseach’ signs looked to be real rather than folly. At the same juncture Fine Gael were infighting and all the attention on Fine Gael was on Enda Kennys leadership.
Back then Labour were the only party in the Dail doing a decent job of criticising the Government, Gilmore and Joan Burton were saying what most of us felt. Labour were angry and the electorate was angry too. Fianna Fail was still in denial about their role in the mess, an interview didn’t pass only a Minister or backbencher would utter the words ‘Lehmans Brothers’, ‘international factors’ and the standard ‘we are where we are’.
What was clear also was that Labour’s support wasn’t solid…. and sure how could it have been considering some polls had them tripling their 2007 vote.
I wonder though did a false confidence set in?
I was out doing a bit of Christmas shopping at the weekend and what was looking up at me only a book Eamon Gilmore -’Leading Lights: People who’ve inspired me’. Was he trying to do a “Dreams from My Father” ?
The performance of Frank McBrearty in the Donegal South West By-Election was, despite it being far from a Labour heartland, a disappointment. Labour (and Fine Gael) must be asking, why they didn’t take the court case that forced the by-election? Once the decision to hold the by-election came Pearse Doherty had a headstart. I suspect that the result here took some wind out of Labour’s sails. It also brought home that without a decent organisation on the ground , especially in larger rural constituencies, its going to be hard to translate poll figures to real votes.
Looking at the latest poll and there is an element of wondering what have Labour to do to stay at their current level of support never mind gaining further support. They have fallen behind Fine Gael in Dublin which must be a worry for them.
The IMF coming in has had an impact on the Labour vote. Their (and the next governments) hands are now tied to the IMF and the four year plan no matter what they say.
Gilmore will have to negotiate with Fine Gael or whoever before they even get to renegotiate with the IMF/EU. That’s assuming that that’s a possibility.
So whilst they do anger and outrage well, the reality is that the will be pursuing similar budgetary policies to the current Government should they be in the next government.
Only a fool doesn’t know at this stage that Fianna Fail policies and incompetence were a major factor in leading us to where we are today. Labour and Gilmore have been doing the politics of blame well.
Labour do seem to be getting squeezed between the “Labour won’t tackle the Unions” vote and the voters who want a complete change from the current budgetary framework. The recent Irish Times ipsos/ MRBI poll on the IMF showed a deep divide on the public’s views of the IMF coming in. By accepting the framework of cuts and the 3% budget deficit target Labour are less appealing to those anti IMF voters than Sinn Féin or The Left.
Labour are already refusing to go into government with Sinn Féin (Roisin Shorthall on the Week in Politics) which means they will be going into government with Fine Gael (unless the unthinkable FF/FG coalition happens)
I’m not being anti Labour here but at this stage what real difference would or could Labour in a Fine Gael Led Coalition government make policy wise?
When asking the question I’m also assuming that the state of the banks, NAMA and State Finances are worse than we are led to believe by the current Government.
Which leads on to a strange thought about the dynamic of the next Dáil… Would Labour not be better as the chief opposition party rather than have Sinn Féin (Gerry Adams and all) and the Left with a rump of Fianna Fáilers sniping at them. Yes we know its a Fianna Fáil caused crisis but that won’t matter too much to voters in 3 or 4 years time. They will be creating an opportunity for each element of the opposition to grow.
On balance they are probably better off going into government … but its going to be a very strange Dáil.
Independents/Others
In the 31st January Red C Poll they were 9%, they are now at 10%
This has fluctuated a small bit since the start of the year and as ever its hard to gauge from the polls exactly where the Left are. It’s safe to assume though that a good deal of this vote will go to The Left. In 2007 6% went to Others/Independents of which roughly half went to PBP, Socialist Party, ISN, WP,WUAG and Left Independent candidates.
I’d reckon we are looking at at least 5% and possibly anything between 8 and 15 Left seats. We’ll see.
Green Party
The Greens were at 5% last January, their isolationist policy of looking after their departments and leaving everything else to Fianna Fáil was working. As the year progressed their fall in popularity came as they had to defend the actions of an incredibly unpopular government. They are now at 2%, less than half their January poll figure and as I’ve written before the Local Elections showed their transfer toxicity. It’s transfers that got 3 of their 6 TDs elected in 2007 as Ciarán Cuffe, Paul Gogarty and Mary White were all outside seat positions on the first count. Those 3 must be gone and surely Gormley too. Eamon Ryan and Trevor Sargent are seen as their only chances. I can’t see Ryan getting in and if any of them scrape home it will be Sargent.
Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Independents and Sinn Féin to come…..
Christmas Reading December 21, 2010
Posted by Garibaldy in Trade Unions.2 comments
Thanks to John O’Farrell of the ICTU for the above. Poundworld in the Park Centre in Belfast seems to know the value of things.
While we’re talking about food prices… We weren’t? Ah, no, we were talking about something else entirely. December 21, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.32 comments
We hear a lot about how high social welfare is in this state in comparison with – say – the one next door, or across the Irish sea, or the border, delete as applicable. But reading Kathleen Barrington in the Sunday Business Post Markets section at the weekend was an eye opener.
For in a piece on Irish retailers she noted that ‘despite the recession and increased competition, Irish consumers still pay relatively high prices for groceries in supermarkets’.
How high?
Irish food prices are 29 per cent higher than the average in 27 EU countries, according to figures from EUROSTAT published earlier this year.
Okay, but that surely is ignoring the recession and the impacts of same where food prices dropped… er… no, no it’s not.
The figures related to 2009, a period in which Ireland was in the midst of the deepest recession in the EU.
That last point is important. The recession has hit this state particularly hard (one might argue that Greece is in a worse situation).
Barrington is typically tactful in ascribing reasons for this dynamic.
It was difficult for retail sector analysts to definitively identify whether the higher prices were down to higher costs or profiteering. Grocers tend to talk about higher costs, while consumers suspect higher profits are being made.
Though she asks us to consider the example of Dunnes Stores. There’s unfortunately a culture of secrecy – surprise, surprise – in relation to this retail area because ‘Irish grocers don’[t publish accounts'. Hmmm... odd that.
But as she notes 'Dunnes Stores (Northern Ireland) is the exception to this culture of secrecy, as it published its accounts for its operations in Britain and the North (thought not for the Republic).'
And accepting there may be some structural differences that would skew the figures upwards if one take their operations in NI, Barrington notes the 'juicy dividend which Dunnes Stores directors paid themselves earlier this year.
Juicy is, indeed, the word.
'...directors Margaret Heffernan and Frank Dunne, [..] were paid a dividend of £11.9 million (€14.3m ) for the 12 months to the end of January 2010′.
And…
‘…another indicator that times are good for supermarkets here is that Tesco has briefed British stock market analysists about how well it has done in Ireland.’
Another indicator again would be that…
‘[While] German discounters Aldi and Lidl have brought some welcome competition to the grocery sector…. successive surveys have shown that, while they may be undercutting the competition here, they are also charging more for groceries in Ireland than in other markets they operate in’.
But look, that’s in a way slightly to one point as respect social welfare, unless one is at the hard end of it.
What of our nearest neighbour? What of food prices there.
Barrington relays a sobering figure that might just explain how they are able to have lower levels of social welfare payments (and all this before we factor in a National Health Service, other provisions and so on – and in the Irish case additional costs of living such as rent/etc).
… British food prices are 3 per cent below the EU average…
My math isn’t great, but doesn’t that suggest a cumulative 32 per cent difference between RoI and UK food prices, and this in 2009 when prices here were supposedly (though not for many of us as we look at food bills) in free fall.
“Keep pulling for us” December 21, 2010
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.Tags: fianna fail, nama
14 comments
Its up on the RTE Player now…
If you didn’t see RTE’s Prime Time Investigates ‘Carry on Regardless’, then strap yourself in (to restrain yourself) to be even further disgusted at the web of deceit surrounding NAMA.
Interspersed with interviews of NAMA officials and soundbites from Brian Lenihan, amongst others, we hear tales of Lands, properties galore and more signed over (perfectly legally) to spouses by Developers in the NAMA process.
Developers in NAMA still using private helicopters to fly them to the races, where they watch their racehorses win.
The State paying a fortune in rent for everything from Dole offices to the NAMA HQ to developers in NAMA.
NAMA are one of the State agencies renting The Treasury building… paying rent to Treasury Holdings (Who have over a billion in loans in NAMA). As an aside, for the 2002 and 2007 General Elections, Fianna Fail had its election headquarters in the Treasury Building.
We see the opening of the new Docklands Convention Centre. Johnny Ronan and Richard Barrett of Treasury Holdings in jovial mood with the equally jovial Brian Cowen and Mary Hanafin… a jovial Bertie arrives in and Richard Barrett greets Bertie ” keep pulling for us”.
…and that’s only touching on the various angles of the show.
The show I think is another few points off FF and The Greens at the next Election.
Worth a watch, if you can stand it.
Bertie and Cyprian’s Christmas wishes December 20, 2010
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Crazed nonsense....Tags: fianna fail
23 comments
On this snowy evening in Dublin I thought I would share some of Bertie and Cyprian’s Christmas Spirit.
From Bertie and Cyprian a Christmas card with the message
“Thank You and Best Wishes for Christmas and a Happy and Healthy New Year” – ‘From Your Local TDs -Fianna Fail’.
Rest of it HERE
Left Archive: ‘In Dublin City in 1913: Songs and Stories of the Workers of Dublin’ – Dublin Council of Trade Unions, May Day Festival, 1988 December 20, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Left Online Document Archive, Irish Politics, The Left.1 comment so far
To download this document please click on the following link: here.DCTU 88
The Dublin Council of Trade Unions has an interesting relationship with the left over the years and this document to some degree underlines that.
The introduction by the Festival Co-ordinator notes that ‘the DCTU realised that in 1988 there was much to reflect upon in our capital’s social history’.
In this book of songs and stories, we aim to throw a little light on Dublin’s working people, their struggles and their heroes. This year is also a cause for the trade union and labour movement to commemorate the 75th Anniversary of the 1913 Lock-out, arguably the most important event in the survival and solidification of workers in their quest to organise for their rights.
There are articles on 1913, on May Day in Dublin since 1890, a profile of Jim Larkin and James Connolly and a range of other materials of interest.
This is very much of it’s time in terms of production and look. But that the centennial anniversaries of many of these events are drawing closer perhaps makes this document all the more interesting and worth reflecting upon. Given the circumstances prevailing today (2010) it will instructive to see how those anniversaries are engaged with.
A chink in the high pay armour? December 20, 2010
Posted by Tomboktu in Business, Capitalism, Inequality.12 comments
Among the appalling announcements by Brian Lenihan in budget week was one limiting the pay of public officials.
In the budget speech on the Tuesday, the Minister said:
The Government believes there should be a maximum salary rate of €250,000 in the public sector. Only a few officeholder posts have salaries above this level at present but there is a larger number in the State agencies. While there are issues about the contractual position of incumbent post holders, I think the position of the Minister for Finance as a shareholder or statutory stakeholder in these companies can be used to enforce the objective of the maximum salary within a reasonable timeframe.
On the issue of the cap, the instinctive response of those on the Left might be to welcome it or to suggest a lower level. For example, Sinn Féin had proposed that the budget be used to set a cap of €100,000 on public servant and employees in semi-state bodies, and Pearse Doherty used the party’s main budget speech to criticise the level of the cap Brian Lenihan had announced.
The problem with high pay in the Irish public sector has been that it has been driven by high pay in the private sector. For at least a decade, the Review Body on Higher Remuneration in the Public Sector has linked to the pay of senior public servants to the pay of those executives in the private sector who are in the bottom quarter of the pay spread in that sector. (Specifically, the reference point is at 85% of that “lower quartile” threshold.)
In 2007, there was outrage when that process produced a recommendation that the Taoiseach be given a pay rise of €30,000. Most of the discussion focused on the obscenity of one official receiving a rise of that size, with some added swipes at the fact that the recipient of this was to be Bertie Ahern. My memory is that only one commentator the mainstream media at the time made the point that the real problem was not the €30,000 increase for one person, but that this was based on the pay rises of the bottom quarter of private sector executives. That commentator was David Begg, of Congress (his comments are now behind an Irish Times paywall).
Begg was right to argue against focusing on the symptom — Bertie’s €30,000 rise — rather than the underlying disease — the run-away pay rises of executives in the private sector. There is no reason to believe that reducing the problem of excessive pay at the top of the public sector will lead to pay restraint at the top of the private sector. (One thing which might see a reduction in the pay of private sector executives would be the right of employees to appoint directors to the boards of companies., although, the research on that is not definitive. In any case, we have a long way to go in Ireland before we get to that — the Courts haven’t been too keen on collective bargaining, provided for in European human rights provisions, so I imagine giving workers a right to a say in directing their companies would send them into paroxysms of indignation at the trampling on the private property rights of capitalists.) And for that reason, both Brian Lenihan and Sinn Féin have made the same error in their budget speeches.
Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week December 19, 2010
Posted by Garibaldy in media.19 comments
Eoghan Harris has identified two types of anger, one legitimate; the other, not.
Let’s start with anger, which takes two forms. The first is legitimate public outrage about bankers’ bonuses and barely suppressed grievances about the 47 per cent gap between public and private pay — manifested by the majority who want to call off the Croke Park charade.
Alongside that is a spurious anger, stimulated by self-promoters, who stoke populist rage for private profit, be it selling books or newspapers. Feeding all that anger has been financially rewarding for the feeders, but will eventually end in tears for the fed.
I wonder which category the Sindo falls in to. I think we all know. Especially, when we read a story by another senator, Shane Ross, who advocates marching on Liberty Hall.
The 1994 deal was followed by the crippling benchmarking awards in 2000, the social partnership time bomb that has contributed to the downfall of the economy. The new oligarchs won 9 per cent pay awards for their followers and promptly reneged on their promise to deliver modernisation in return.
So it is mightily convenient for the brethren to pick a fight with the banks. It distracts the public view from another party to the catastrophe — themselves.
Nice trick to accuse others of distracting from the real cause, while seeking to blame the unions to shift attention from the banks and the speculators. And of course, the nature of capitalism itself. It’s funny how people who spend their lives praising businessmen for seeking to maximise their income get so annoyed when workers do the same.
Marc Coleman offers us words of wisdom, in a piece pointing out where Morgan Kelly has been wrong, while shall we say, gilding the lily on where he has been mistaken.
Ultimately, the majority of blame for this crisis rests with governments, state authorities and banks.
It was US President Bill Clinton who in 1999 forced US banks to lend to residential property investors. It was US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan whose interest rate limbo-dancing incentivised over-investment in both residential and commercial property. It was greedy financial institutions who failed to resist temptation. It was a badly designed and compromised Stability Pact and a weak interest rate regime in Europe that caused governments to over-borrow. And it was a litany of Irish Government mistakes — failed regulation, dysfunctional spatial planning, stupid land use policies and, as Brian Lenihan now admits, a self-serving social partnership system that eroded our competitiveness, beggared our State coffers and busted our banks.
But that still leaves 20 per cent of the blame to be attributed. That should, in my view, be split between those who persistently refused to balance negative news comment (which is badly needed) with positive news and comment (which is just as needed), and those political leaders whose ill-judged comments about bondholders created panic and speculation. Sure, they didn’t cause the crisis. But neither can it be said that they didn’t tip us over the edge.
Whether true or not, the Government — in the form of social partnership — has now resumed its rightful place as the biggest threat to Ireland’s recovery.
Is this supposed to be serious analysis? And what social partnership – it’s dead now. Obviously though, the Sindo has decided to get its readership some union bashing for Christmas. We also see from John Drennan.
You are, down to the astonishing desire of Mr Cowen to keep the Olympic flame of the Croke Park Agreement burning, a weight on the spirit of enterprise.
A weight on the spirit of enterprise? This is getting plain silly now. The government rescued Irish capitalism from itself, and now we have to listen to more guff about the glorious spirit of enterprise. No amount of Christmas cheer can make you do anything other than want to vomit.
We’ll end with these comments that don’t qualify for the actual award because they aren’t someone writing for the Sindo, but that certainly represent the stupidest statements of the entire paper this week, if not this year. From Niall Mellon, property developer.
Commenting on what he believes the State’s so-called ‘bad bank’ needs to do, he said: “If I was running Nama, I would bring in the developers and say ‘I want you to help us solve this problem. And if you do, you will get to keep your home. And if you can generate more money than Nama paid for the asset, then we’ll give you a share of it [the profit]‘. That’s commercially driven management, and that’s what has to happen.
“When developers are in Nama, there’s no point in talking to them about the debt they previously had with the banks. It’s all about reality now.
“And reality is what Nama paid for the assets. And that’s where the journey of recovery has to begin. It’s completely avoiding reality to focus on what the debt was a couple of years ago. That’s gone. It’s past. We rebuild from where we are now.”
Merry Christmas to all at the Sunday Independent.
December edition of Socialist Voice from CPOI December 19, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, European Politics, Irish Politics, The Left.1 comment so far
Download link: here.December Voice
Very interesting edition of SV with a broad range of topics tackled, from calls to leave the Euro to Wikileaks and Latin America.
There’s a great list of quotes from the great and the good under the heading A geography lesson from the EU…
Most striking quote for me?
The state has socialised corporate debt in the region of €140 billion, at a very conservative estimate and placed this illegitimate burden on the backs of 4.5 million people.
A poll, another poll… December 18, 2010
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.7 comments
Okay, many thanks to sonofstan for the heads up. But yes, we’ve got another poll, this one from tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post. No doubt IELB/AK will be along to give a low-down on it, but the headline figures are interesting enough in themselves.
Support for Fianna Fail stands at 17%, while Fine Gael has gained one point to 34% since the last Sunday Business Post Poll at the end of November.
Labour has slipped four points to 23%, while the Greens are down one to 2%. There are gains for Sinn Fein, up three points to 14% and Independents and Others are also up by two to 10%.
Main point, this is in or around the IT/Ipsos MRBI poll during the last week so both are now more or less in agreement.
First up, no gloom round FG way, one suspects, with that very healthy figure. Rumours of Kenny’s departure may be premature. The LP figure seems to be ‘truthy’, as the term has it 
. Good, but perhaps indicative of a settling effect well short of the heights scaled in the fairly recent past. The SF figure is equally truthy, but crucially seeing them in the mid-teens which they need to be to have a sniff of over 10 TDs. But on these figures they’ll be fairly pleased too. And the Indo/Others result is good too, a lot of Indo/Others will be feeling that little bit more optimistic tonight.
The GP? This is terrible for them. In conversation on here yesterday with CMK we were discussing how the GP’s departure (slight return) from Government has done them no good at all. Nothing. No bounce. Perhaps the opposite to be honest. And at this point it is hard to see them retaining any seats, well, perhaps one. And it’s even harder to see them doing anything at all that could change that for the better.
And FF. Sub-20 per cent yet again. Even if, as I think both IELB/AK and myself have been arguing for a while now, this increases up to 20 per cent during an election campaign – an big ‘if’ in and of itself, they’re toast in so many constituencies and as Jim Monaghan pointed out to me yesterday in five years time a most interesting dynamic kicks into effect where surviving FFers do what many Labour TDs have done for years (understandably in some respects given the electoral structure we have), hold on tightly to what they have and do little enough to assist running mates. And remember, if FF is sub-30 seats in the next Dáil that dynamic will be particularly apparent and the difficulties intrinsic to jumping up much above 40 in one electoral cycle will be all too apparent.
This is sea-change territory and no mistake.
That the political outcomes of the election are, however, much more predictable, conservative FG-led government, is unfortunately not sea-change territory. How the left deals with that will be educative.
