So, what happens next? January 23, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.trackback
This is sort of difficult to read as regards where we go next. According to the Green Party their withdrawal from government is to ensure an election is held.
Okay. But their continued support for the Finance Bill seems to cut across that given that FF seek to string out the latter for as long as they possibly can.
And isn’t this strangely familiar, for before Christmas when the GP said they wanted the election to be called in January but this was cut across by the same Financial Bill and the time span it would take to deal with that.
I don’t know if this does any good for the GP. Again, I doubt it.
And the following seems wildly optimistic…
Mr Gormley said the party would support the Finance Bill from the Opposition benches and he called on Fianna Fáil to make every effort to fast-track the legislation. He declined to answer questions about whether the party would support the Labour Party’s motion of no confidence, saying that the “issue doesn’t arise” because the Opposition was willing to stay the motion to bring forward the Finance Bill.
What’s the betting the latter will precede the former?
And Fianna Fáil, now a minority government, will do all they can to survive a bit longer because new leader or not, and note the rush to distance themselves from…er… their Taoiseach, they’re going forward in the worst possible circumstances, two weeks of utter chaos, SF and Labour still riding high, and a situation where the continuing presence of Cowen will undermine their efforts to jettison him.
Though the outcome of all this seems near imponderable, in broad terms it simply doesn’t look good for FF or any serious clawback of their position to anywhere near 2007 levels.
Much more on this during the week…
Fianna Fail will try to call Labour and Fine Gael’s bluff. They know that Labour and Fine Gael are desperate to have the Finance Bill passed by this government.
win win situation for all of us?
Definitely. There is a strong case for Cowen being obliged to go to the Park now, but the promise to back the finance bill might just avert that. You would swear that Labour are orchestrating this.
Still, I derive some enjoyment from the thought that FF might have to enter an election campaign without a leader.
I was under the impression that they are rushing the leadership contest through to a finish on Wednesday.
You are right.I hadn’t seen that bit.
Well, there goes a little bit of my smile.
But even with a leader they’re still stuck with a Taoiseach and… with a bit of luck no lead in period for said leader to do the biz around the state…
FF’s battle is internal at the moment think outsides a distraction for them. if they had any wit they’d call for cowen to go compleately now after a day of the media saying FG and lab are going to see the finance bill through and leave them explaining it. but there not the FF of old.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bosca, Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland said: Cedar Lounge Rev: So, what happens next?: This is sort of difficult to read as regards where we go next. Accordi… http://bit.ly/gaO1zV [...]
Line of Action :
Kill the Finance Bill
Dissolve the Dáil and announce a new General Election date before March 11
The Green Party/Fianna Fáil policy – apparently supported by Fine Gael – of passing the Finance bill this week should be rejected out of hand.
Call the bluff of the right wing – do not tolerate hypocrites pretending to oppose the government, but in fact hoping the austerity pacakge is passed – and after a General Election Fine Gael and their Labour coalition colleagues will say they are in “straitjacket”, their “hands are tied”, and so on.
Kill the Finance Bill – Burn the Bondholders!
[...] http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2011/01/23/so-what-happens-next/ [...]
Fianna Fail has one stroke left; dissolve the Dail and let the incoming govt. pass the FB with its neo-liberal provisions.
Lab and F.G. clearly want the FB passed before the election; then in the next Dail they can claim ‘our hands are tied’, ‘we’re in a strait jacket’ etc
If Labour does not insist that its no confidence motion be put to a vote on Wednesday they are playing the people for suckers, and S.F and ULA can benefit from this.
Totally agree. FG will back the Finance Bill and Labour would be fools to get involved.
This whole lets get the Finance Bill done this week campaign is being orchestrated by The Greens. So its bound to end badly for anyone involved.
Look what bucking the bank guarantee did for Labour-the peopke who want that Bill passed wont vote Labour anyway. Let FG hang that albatross round their necks.
Folks, it seems as if FF are doomed to death this week. The ‘Soldiers’ have the option of getting the Finance Bill through by Fri/Sat and then calling a Gen Election (in return for Opposition to progress the Bill through the Oireachtas……..
Or,
It can face the Labour Party No-confidence motion and be defeated on that.
Either way what FF is being offered is the type of death they wish to face. It’s a Hobson’s choice !
IN agreeing to progess the Finance Bill, the Opposition still reserves the right to make any amendments it wishes before it passes through the Oireachtas. In This regard, FF TDs already out electioneering to save their seats will feel under no obligation to return to the Dail to vote and save Lenihan’s skin and blushes.
Plus: Tieing up Brian Lenihan in the Dail on Tuesday and Wednesday next severely limits Lenihan’s chances of electioneering in his attempt to become leader of the Soldiers of Destiny.
In a sense, FF are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. It minds me of the question: Have you stopped beating your wife, yet ?
Either way, it’s a no-win for FF.
I can see nothing less than a full court press for a FG majority by the press and the powers that be. At best we’ll see a series of tactics aimed at backing Labour into permanentaly supporting the rentier agenda of FG/EU/IMF. (From Labour’s statements they don’t seem to need much persuading.)
FF’s gravest sin has not been in the area of policy – in fact they are doing what capitalists dictate. Their gravest sin is that they have allowed room for the left and other ‘misfits’ (read mostly SF) to emerge. The Donegal by-election result revealed the current level of anger in the populace. The series of ruling party fiascos, allied with poll data, have put the frighteners on the capitalists. The populace cannot be trusted, nor the ruling party.
Capitalists in Europe, and their minions in Ireland, need to provide the middle classes with talking points about policy while dictating the overall direction of said policy in capitalism’s favour. FF no longer delivers on this score – so the main point now is to get the election over and hope to rebuild another right-wing alternative to FG to regain ‘balance’ on the Irish political landscape. I basically see a FG (puritan: do-what-your-told-because-you-are-financially-inferior party) v FFnewlite (liberal: we’re-all-savvy-free-spirited-budding-entrepenuers party) landscape in the near future.
Pull out FG during capitalist consolidations, insert FFnewlite when capitalists deem they can blow another economic bubble. Rinse and repeat ad naseum.
What Ireland is facing is not a series of emergency budgets over the next 5 years but a substantial re-ordering of society. Politics is just becoming another form of X-factor.
‘a substantial reordering of society’…. entirely agree.
Like what happened in New Zealand after 1984?