Right of centre Independents and their ‘alliance[s]‘… January 26, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.40 comments
So, David McWilliams has wisely ruled out being an election candidate. As the Irish Times noted:
Last week, it was reported that Mr McWilliams was giving serious consideration to contesting the general election in Dún Laoghaire as an Independent candidate under an umbrella movement expected to be known as the “New Ireland Movement”.
This followed his attendance along with about 25 people at a meeting in Greystones. At the meeting were two people who had worked on Barack Obama’s campaign.
The ‘New Ireland Movement’. Hmmm. Barack Obama’s campaign. Hmmmmmm. Two people… Ah give me a break.
On a not dissimilar tangent there’s a report in today’s paper which quotes Thomas Clare, independent candidate in Louth, as saying that:
“The speculation is that if this technical group of Independents can reach over 20 elected TDs that they can then be in position to form a government with Enda Kenny”.
And who are these Independents?
…the grouping included “influential” people who want to create jobs and support enterprise. Mr Clare said high-profile business and economics figures would be among the candidates in the grouping, of which he was part. He said the group was believed to include Senator Shane Ross, running in Dublin South as an Independent candidate.
And:
The grouping would be “centre-right in terms of jobs and economic policy”and “would think there could be a good public sector if there was a strong private sector,” he said.
Very interesting, I think most of us will agree, but I’m told by those as would know (ie close to one of those purportedly part of that ‘grouping’) that this is entirely incorrect and that no such grouping exists or is in the process of formation.
Go searching for ‘Ross’ and ‘Independent Alliance’ and you’ll find this here from January 17th…
from Independent candidate in Cork South Central, David McCarthy.
The start of a new week and the start of a new movement.
Today I announced the beginnings of a new movement, the Independent Alliance for Change, that aims to affect real and meaningful change to the political system through co-operation between Independent voices throughout the country.
Senator Shane Ross is the most recent, and high profile, Independent to announce he will stand I am sure he will be followed by others.
I am hoping to bring these voices together to call in one voice for real changes, the public are consistently showing a strong preference for Independent candidates of 12 to 14 per cent in recent polls.
If we can show ourselves to be a credible alternative then we will tip the balance in the next Dáil.
And here’s another release from McCarthy…
David McCarthy, who is standing as an Independent in Cork South Central, announced a new movement today, the “Independent Alliance for Change”. McCarthy announced his candidacy last week and is running on a platform of political and public service reform. He has since been joined by fellow independent candidates in Cork East, Cork North-Central and Cork South-West. Saturday night also saw Senator Shane Ross declare his intention to run in Dublin South. All these candidates are standing on a similar platform.
McCarthy said, “This initiative will see Independent candidates stand in their own constituencies on their own policy platform. There will be no party structure. We will have a shared vision about the central platform of political reform, but will not be forced to toe the line by a centralised organisation.
You’ve got to love the way Shane Ross is included in the above. And this, perhaps is where Clare picked up on it.
McCarthy has had a colourful political career…
I have been involved in politics for many years working as campaign manager for Kathy Sinnot’s 2002 General Election bid as well as stints as regional organiser for Fine Gael in Dublin and Munster. More recently I was Séan Kelly’s campaign manager in his successful European campaign and have most recently worked as regional director with Senator David Norris’s Presidential campaign.
This was picked up by Cactus Flower on Political World five or six days ago… and indeed IELB has posted up the leaflet McCarthy is using on the Irish Election Literature Blog.
And here is the current list of those in the Independent Alliance for Change.
So, let’s mark that down to some judicious kite-flying and perhaps is indicative of efforts to align with Ross in order to grab some of the attention going his way.
In fairness go to Ross’s site and you’ll read the following comment…
Several like-minded independents are set to stand in other constituencies. If elected, I plan to join with them to change the entire political system to end the culture of cronyism, to break the circle of powerful people ruling our country and to liberate those citizens who are now suffering high taxes, negative equity, unemployment and cuts in childrens’ allowances as a result of their policies.
It is time for an end to tribal politics.
So in some respects he may have brought this on himself.
The curious thing is that had such an effort been made, as distinct from talked about, during the past twelve months then it’s possible that we might well be looking at a significant crop of right of centre Independents. But I’ll come back to that in a moment.
As it is, now?
.
I’ve been totting up who I think might make it back into the Dáíl from the current crop of Independents on offer. Of those on the centre-right the only definite would seem to be Lowry, perhaps followed by Grealish and the progeny of JH-R. And…er… that’s it.
Of current candidates, Clare apart, who have we got so far? Shane Ross.
Ross has a chance, a good one some say, but Dublin South is going to be a strange constituency in the wake of the various events of the last few years so I wouldn’t bet on any definite outcome. But say, for the sake of argument, he did make it.
That’s four.
Seventeen short of the 20 Clare proposes.
As ever though logistical issues abound. Candidates have to be chosen, supporters corralled, campaigns fought. That’s not easy even at the best of times. Tony Gregory et al could attest to how long it took to make it to councillor status let alone TD.
Though… there is the ghost of the Progressive Democrats. Look at the formerly PD councillors reelected as Independents at the last local elections, a significant number as it happens. They could have provided the kernel for a PD redux party whose natural coalition partners would indeed have been FG following the implosion of FF. But, it hasn’t happened.
Because it’s much easier said than done. For example, slag off the ULA and the left Independent candidates all one likes for being rag-tag, but the reality is that the component parts have been campaigning highly successfully for years. The arrival of People Before Profit councillors is one of the most unremarked and under analysed aspects of the last local elections. And those components have been uniquely focussed on the General Election. Look at Joe Higgins whose run for Europe was in large part merely a trial run for retaking a TDs seat. Look at Seamus Healy who has been working away consistently in the years since 2007 as an Independent leftist.
Which is not to say no right-leaning Independents will be elected… but if I am sceptical that the ULA will get more than three or four seats on a good day, then I simply cannot see how one could see other right Independents arriving in such numbers that they could reach a total figure of 20. Throw in for the sake of argument Mattie McGrath or Joe Behan? Doesn’t seem like a good fit to be honest, not least because Behan strikes me as a man on a journey back to FF after the election – assuming he stands.
I mentioned earlier in the week about the candidacy of Hospital candidates. And without question we will see a varied bunch contest the election, but if there are 20 Independents in total I’ll be amazed [to be honest I can think of only one Independent that will at this point be definitely returned, that being Lowry. All others will have a fight on their hands to a greater or lesser extent].
Of course, there’s another interesting aspect to this and that is that Clare may inadvertently articulate the voice of a strand which isn’t quite FG, but is happy to support FG and is clearly keen not to have Labour Party participation in government. One could be glib and say, what difference would that make really, but it speaks of a certain concern amongst some circles as to how the LP, however marginally, will deflect FG.
This isn’t an illusion. There’s no end of people who want ‘firm government’ and so on. And they’ll be most vociferous in demanding it over the next month or so. The means by which such government is arrived at is an open question. Suitable Independents might serve perfectly as proxies. Just they may have to do their homework before saying it too publicly.
It’s Micheál Martin and a new Golden era dawns for Fianna Fáil… Or most likely not. January 26, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.15 comments
All the details here…
A safe choice, and probably sensible given what they’re about to face into. Though I couldn’t help thinking as I saw the photo on the IT piece linked above, ‘what are you smiling about, Martin?’.
Here he is facing into the potential for electoral collapse on a scale never seen before by Fianna Fáil. Not exactly cheery days. Still, if he can claw back crucial percentages over what Cowen would have delivered – a task that would seem to be close enough to a no-brainer – that will be a score or so of FF TDs who will have him to thank for still being in the Oireachtas.
As for any mild, let alone fundamental, shift in the ideological trajectory of FF. Doubtful.
So, this February election… January 26, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.9 comments
…one of the odd things about writing about Irish politics at the moment, in pre-electoral and electoral mode, in this format of a blog is that each post tends to merge because the events and issues seem to merge and therefore it becomes a bit like a long running conversation rather than one issue, or another, during quieter times. So apologies if some, or many, posts during the next while are a bit rambling and discursive, but it’s the times that are in it.
Anyhow, this truncated Finance Bill and rapid run into an election is far far from the extra time that Fianna Fáil would have liked to see in order to allow the new ‘leader’ to settle into their job. In that respect Cowen didn’t merely seal his own fate last week by that ludicrous reshuffle, but he set the seal on the fate of the party by radically foreshortening the timeline to the election.
The great imponderable then is what a new leader does for Fianna Fáil. Poll boost or same old same old? Some have suggested that Micheál Martin may not be quite the leader for FF to galvanise itself during this campaign and that Lenihan (Snr) would do better. I’m unconvinced by that to be honest. At his press conference at the weekend Lenihan struck me as a man who was painfully weighed down by his political history however much that peculiar reality distortion field – which he appears to share with Steve Jobs – was only failing intermittently. Martin, by contrast, has the curious attribute of not being perceived as being directly involved/implicated in the economic situation. That he sat around the same Cabinet table as the others isn’t a minor issue though. That fact will be reiterated again and again over the course of the next month.
And then there’s the question as to how much of his [and I'm assuming Hanafin is out of the running entirely] own stamp he can put on the party, a party that is currently composed of a large number of TDs hugely concerned about their own personal political survival. There’s going to be an interesting game of chicken played over the next few weeks as rival polls emerge as we see whether clinging close to the new leader goes half-way to saving their skins or should the FF logos be made as small as is possible (or as someone joked to me, should the logos be on stickers that can be removed from posters and other material – as required. At least I think they were joking).
Campaigns seem to develop their own dynamic. Actually, the truth is of course that they are mediated in certain ways by the media so that they seem to have troughs and peaks that to those walking the streets and knocking on doors are blissfully unaware most of the time. I canvassed over a long period with Tony Gregory’s group and the reality was that however excited and heated the rhetoric in the media on the actual trail everything was much less pointed. But another curious aspect was how difficult it was to read the constituency – and this is true of any campaign I’ve been involved in. Until the boxes of votes are opened it genuinely is an imponderable as to what the result will be – except in the most fantastical exceptional circumstances.
In 2007 I was on my way along North Strand when who should I see at the bridge over the canal but Gerry Adams and Mary Lou McDonald gazing along it with a few party workers. That was mid-way through the campaign and I’d judged from the visual presence on the ground in terms of posters and canvassing teams, particularly up around Cabra, it seemed that SF would do very well, so well in fact that many thought that McDonald would easily take a seat. To be honest they all seemed pretty pensive and I’ve often wondered whether they had a sense of how things would turn out in the constituency even then.
Clearly she didn’t make it into the Dáil. But it points up how difficult it is to read even, or especially, from ground level. And shifting back from that level, as is evidenced by no end of contributions on Politics.ie is often a pointless exercise, the bland certainties of so many who haven’t darkened the door of a particular constituency can be a sight to behold sometimes.
Even the byelections that saw George Lee and Maureen O’Sullivan arrive in LH, didn’t appear on the face of it to offer any absolute clarity as to the outcome if one were to rely on encounters on the street or at doorways.
Yet not to arrive on the street or at doorways is to invite disaster.
And it’s in that space between activism and intangible but very real consequences as regards influencing votes that the outcome to what happens next hinges upon.
The next time out, say in Dublin Central? Who knows? The only truly safe seat is that of Joe Costello. All else are to varying degrees subject to the whim of an electorate that is near impossible to judge. Is a Fianna Fáil collapse nationwide likely to be greater or worse here given that it was Ahern’s old stomping ground? Worse I’d think, but then again. Has Maureen O’Sullivan done enough to ensure the seat? We’ll see. Will FG take a seat? One would think not, but then if the traditional Gregory vote were to collapse that might in part go in unusual directions. What will the last SF candidate do to the current ones electoral chances and so on and so forth. And all of this before we get to considering FF’s chances to take a seat.
To take a seat… in a constituency where they were guaranteed two up until recently (though perhaps the unusual nature of the election of Cyprian Brady, at least in transfer terms should have been a significant warning to FF that the loyalty of their voters while seemingly broad was potentially shallow given how few first preferences he garnered and how many Ahern did, indicating a huge personal vote but… not a lot more than that). How the mighty are fallen.
And each constituency is, to a greater or lesser extent, similar to that. Those imponderables mentioned earlier stack up. Local circumstances assist or block movement forward.
But all that said every straw in the wind gives some indication of that larger picture and can hint at the way forward. There are those who during 2007 didn’t depend on random glimpses of Adams and McDonald and other party workers to try to work out the way things would go, and largely got it right. I’m thinking in particular of an article in the Phoenix just before the election that year which went into the election constituency by constituency and by using the data from RedC polls at local and national level neatly skewered the idea of an SF breakthrough. I remember being dubious when I read it. I certainly wasn’t subsequently.
So over the next five weeks or so it’s going to be fascinating to see what emerges onto a political terrain largely unlike any we’ve seen before. In an odd way I’m looking forward to it, not merely because I hope the fairly varied range of formations and individuals that I’d support make it into the Dáil but because this offers an opportunity to shake things up like never before.
Doesn’t mean it will happen. But…
Economic ignorance? Unleash the Doherty [whenever possible]. But seeing as we’re also talking about Fine Gael… January 26, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.76 comments
I haven’t heard the Morning Ireland that saw Varadkar and Adams square off against each other, though I’ve read some small extracts and in truth it’s hard to tell exactly whether Adams came out as badly as some say, or worse. But most likely this will be lost in the general noise that is increasing over the FF leadership, the Finance Bill and the Election itself. Mind you, free top tip to SF, unleash the Doherty whenever possible, firstly he’s in the Dáil, secondly he’s an excellent public speaker, thirdly he has what appears to be a good grasp of the fundamentals.
These aren’t inconsiderable virtues in the context of an election shaped almost entirely by economics.
Still, advice aside, what I found interesting was Varadkar’s charge of ‘economic ignorance’.
It went like this:
Mr Varadkar said the Finance Bill had nothing to do with bondholders. “I think nothing has changed in the last five years and since the last election when Mr Adams showed his ignorance of economics,” he said.
It’s a potent weapon, isn’t it, given all that has happened to this state in the past three years?
And yet, and yet, I was reminded of Pat Carey’s dismal performance on RTÉ when faced with a Pat Rabbitte who did the usual ‘shame, shame’ approach as regards Fianna Fáil economic policy then and now. The though struck me at the time as to why Carey didn’t turn around and inquire of Rabbitte why his party had entered the 2007 election campaign on a pledge to cut the lower rate of tax by 2 per cent, something even FF for all its pomps was reluctant to do at the time? And it’s not that I prefer Carey over Rabbitte, or vice versa come to think of it. And my God I was in two parties with the redoubtable Pat.
Which is why Varadkar’s charge made me smile just a little, because whatever about Adams abilities or otherwise to convey economic policy Adams would have been quite within his rights to turn the question around.
What about FG’s position in 2007, let alone afterwards?
Consider this useful overview from FinFacts of the joint Fine Gael/Labour ‘Agenda on Jobs and Taxes’ from that year, for yes, Labour was joined at the hip on these proposals.
Let me preface it by saying that some of the ideas weren’t bad, but there’s some eye-watering stuff nonetheless…and not all of it is hindsight…
Progressive Income Tax Reform
Labour and Fine Gael have agreed a number of income tax measures that bolster the incomes of “hard working families” that have suffered from the “rip off” experience and that support the life choices of all families, including parents and other carers, in achieving their own preferred balance between paid work and unpaid care.
▪ A 2-point cut in the standard rate of tax from 20% to 18%
▪ Indexation of personal credits and bands to earnings and a further €5,000 increase in the point where 1-income married couples hit the top rate of tax
▪ An increase in the home carers’ credit to the level of the PAYE credit
That’s right. An undertaxed economy, already horribly dependent upon a certain revenue stream, and they were talking about cutting taxes and widening bands?
And what of this, on stamp duty, a real old bugbear of the economic centre and right…
A Fairer Stamp Duty Regime
FG/Labour say they will introduce a fairer system of stamp duty that helps make housing for all families more affordable. Specifically, they will:
▪ Abolish stamp duty for first time buyers up to €450,000;
▪ Restructure stamp duty for others buyers as follows: o No stamp duty up to €100,000 o On the next €350,000 a 5% rate will apply o On the balance a 9% rate will apply
The parties say that it is the role of Government to help families buy homes, not to get in their way.
That’s right too, in the context of a housing market seriously overheating they sought to make it easier to purchase houses…
And for those from the right who now have seen the light [sic] as regards partnership and all its evils, what of this?
- Fulfilment of current Government policy commitments across a range of areas, such as those made in the latest Social Partnership Agreement, Towards 2016.
No budgeting for a rainy day [bar monies to the NPRF]. All the estimates were based on a sunny sunny reading of the future…
…an average growth rate (in both GDP and GNP terms) of 4.2% per annum (in real terms) projected over this period, compared with 5.0% per annum over the 2002-07 period.
And one L. Varadkar was a signed up member to this as he pounded the streets in 2007 as an FG candidate.
Indeed.
Meetings of the ULA near you… probably! January 26, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.10 comments
We’ve already posted a link to the ULA site on these, but just to remind people… here are some more meetings…
Just an observation, I can’t help but feel that simply by making such a concerted effort to work on this together some good will come in terms of the overall tenor of relationships between the various formations represented. Isn’t that a positive?
31st Jan, Dublin North
8pm The Old School House, Swords Village (opposite Lord Mayors Car Park
Clare Daly, Joe Higgins, Richard Boyd Barrett
1st Feb Limerick
8pm Absolute Hotel, Sir Harry’s Mall
Joe Higgins, Cian Prendiville, Seamus Healy, Brid Smith
2nd Feb, Dun Laoghaire
7:30pm Kingstown Hotel
Richard Boyd Barrett, Joe Higgins, Kieran Allen
3rd Feb, Dublin North East
Racecourse Inn, Baldoyle 8pm
Brian Greene, Clare Daly, Joan Collins
8th February, Dublin North Central
Donnycarney Community Centre, Malahide Road, 8pm
John Lyons, Clare Daly, Richard Boyd Barrett
8th Feb, Dublin South Central
Crumlin VEC College, 7.30
Joan Collins, Joe Higgins
9th Feb, Dublin Mid West
Waterside Pub, Clondalkin
Gino Kenny, Rob Connolly Joe Higgins, Richard Boyd Barrett
10th Feb Dublin South West
8pm Maldron Hotel, Tallaght
Joe Higgins, Mick Murphy, Joan Collins
17th Feb, Dublin South East
Venue to be announced
Annette Mooney, Richard Boyd Barrett, Clare Daly
18th Feb, Dublin South
St. John’s GAA Club, Grange Road Ballinteer
Nicola Curry, Richard Boyd Barrett, Joe Higgins
Meanwhile, away from the ‘leadership’ contest, is that the sound of FF fracturing? And yet more Independents appear on the scene as… January 25, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.4 comments
There’s stuff that when you hear it first it comes as a surprise but with a moment’s reflection you realise it makes sense.
So there’s Mattie McGrath, erstwhile FF TD, now running as an Independent in South Tipperary at the…er…next…election.
And why not. McGrath is a shrewd politician and will have thought long and hard about his chances as either an FF candidate or other. His semi-detached status from FF has been underlined by constituency material that in a happy coincidence in recent times has eschewed the FF logo on it. Wise man.
What this says about the larger situation of that party is a different matter. Are things so bad for FF that it makes more sense for some to run alone than as part of the organisation? McGrath certainly thinks so, though the question remains is he sui generis, and now we see Noel Treacy FF TD for Galway East has decided not to contest the election (remember when Noel Whelan argued in the IT that the numbers leaving this Dáil were not unusual. That was back when the figure was in the low to mid-20s). Once upon a time, kind of sort of gene poll FF TD and Independent Paddy McHugh, a pleasant guy, held the seat, but I haven’t heard if he’s running again.
Meanwhile here comes an Hospital candidate, from Roscommon Hospital Action Committee. Just the ticket, one suspects, for disaffected FF voters. The Hospital candidates are worthy of examination in and of themselves not least because they are rooted in actual local activism. The RTÉ report notes the following which might chill many a candidate from all parties and none in that constituency and further afield, even if the RHAC candidate is ultimately unsuccessful…
Over 1,000 people attended a public meeting in the town 12 days ago and this was followed on Friday last by a meeting between HSE officials and local representatives, who were greeted on their arrival by 300 protestors.
And note this too. Most telling:
The announcement [in Roscommon] comes following the recent decision by Junior Minister Michael Finneran not to seek re-election.
People on the ground, from McGrath to the RHAC, see gaps opening up as FF TDs withdraw from the fray, which they can use to their full advantage. Surely, FF will put up a candidate in Finneran’s place – though if the next crop of polls are particularly bad and if it appears that single candidates are in danger…well, who knows.
Of course this may simply be a reprise of 2007 where the money was on SF returning in double figures only to see that particular prediction prove entirely incorrect. Some, none or perhaps all of these candidates will be elected, adding to the mix. But whatever does happen the actual election, already by far the most interesting contest in decades, is becoming even more intriguing.
It also points to dangers in FG or Labour being in any sense complacent (as Paddy M noted this evening). The churn in the vote at constituency level is likely to be highly unpredictable and lead to equally unpredictable outcomes.
“Talk away Mister Higgins …..” January 25, 2011
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.36 comments
A brief clip of Joan Burton and Joe Higgins on Last nights ” Tonight with Vincent Browne“
The full show is available here
The bailout… Fixed in stone? January 25, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics.14 comments
This from Dan O’Brien gives yet another perspective on events political this week and last…
All of the continued upheaval is taking place in the unprecedented context of this State being obliged to introduce detailed policy measures under the terms of November’s ECB-IMF bailout. But even those terms are now up in the air, both because at European level views on many issues surrounding the saving of the euro – including bailout conditions – are themselves evolving; and because the parties likely to form the next government – Fine Gael and Labour – are committed to renegotiating them.
Another godsend for Sinn Féin and the further left… or if Cowen is secretly working for the opposition are Shortall and Rabbitte secretly working for the ULA? January 25, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.40 comments
…the shenanigans over the past twenty four hours in relation to the Finance Bill, as noted by Harry McGee yesterday on the Irish Times website and quoted here… was indeed as he put it when…
…both [Labour and Fine Gael] will facilitate the passage of the Bill (which both really really want to see going through) and then both will have the luxury of voting against it. In collusion with the Greens (and relucantly) Fianna Fail.
And lo, it came to pass.
As neat a piece of political work as one could imagine. But one which shows up the enormous credibility issue for Labour, and much more so than Fine Gael.
For those who were preparing for the LPs stint in government for the inevitable, as they saw it, sell-out, wait no more. They may well be, indeed will or are, pointing to this positioning and say – ‘we told you so!’. And in truth the LPs position, one which has not merely converged on the political centre but crossed it, is far from creditable. If they disliked the Finance Bill so much, well, push the no-confidence motion in the Taoiseach and watch the Government fall, or better still watch Fine Gael attempt to prop it up in order to pass the FB. Or do something, anything, but something better than this shambles where their race to be respectable and ‘provide stable government’ outweighs any other consideration, even the serious attrition of their vote to the left and further left.
And as Mark suggested last night in the comments on the above thread, ‘Saw that too with a sinking feeling. And I thought the 18% tax promise in 2007 was just a blip.’
But it wasn’t and this isn’t. Labour, for whatever reason, has decided that in order to retain its current levels of support (but note that decline) it needs to play to… well, who precisely?
I generally take a sympathetically critical line towards the LP. None of us on the left can ignore how difficult it is in this state to argue a left of left of centre line. Decades from the lives of leftwing activists have been spent on fairly marginal achievements, and that’s true from the LP leftward.
It’s a difficult ask in a society as conservative in some respects as this, at least in terms of pretending that there is no such thing as left/right politics much of the time, to be leftwing, even mildly so.
And there’s a danger in complaining about the rhetoric emanating from the worthies mentioned in the headline to this post that we forget that the further left has never been behind the door in articulating precisely its discontents with the Labour Party. Meetings the length and breadth of the state will echo to the sound of complaints about them. No one here, LP or otherwise, can claim the status of innocent victim.
But that party leaves me exasperated as regards not merely its innate caution, something that seems to me have been intrinsic to it from its foundation, but also its politeness as regards the centre and centre right and a remarkably deaf ear to all others. Because while one has to appeal to a broad variety of voters and people in many different circumstances there’s all too often a sense that the LP has lost sight of who and what it is meant to represent while making that appeal. This may seem unfair to the many many genuine leftists I know within the LP, but from the outside, and from a position that is certainly some way short of say the SP or SWP this is a perception. I can’t say how widely shared it is. But it exists and it frustrates.
And every time a Roisin Shortall or a Rabbitte articulate something along the lines of a ‘rag-tag’ left, something that seems inexplicable given the personal political history of so many people in the LP, you can sense the SF, ULA and Independent vote bump slightly upwards. And remember, it only needs slight increments because – as also noted previously – the targets of all three are actually quite modest. SF will be pleased with 7 TDs, sufficient to form a Technical Group. If the ULA happen to get Higgins, Healy and RBB back into the Dáil that will be a good days work, any more and they’ll be naturally delighted. As for the Independents, each extra one is one more. ‘Nuff said.
Does Shortall or Rabbitte care? Probably not. They’ve got their eyes fixed on a larger percentile of the vote than the ULA, or SF or whoever can dream of. And they’re all too aware that the further left and SF can deny them second seats here and there, but particularly in Dublin. But, there’s a problem, it’s not entirely working. – How else to explain that the FG vote is more or less constant while the SF and Independents/Others vote is increasing while the FF and LP votes are declining? Labour has seemed at best coy for quite some time now, coy and evasive. And the latest deal has something of that tone too.
So no wonder they’re throwing the odd rhetorical comment agin the further left. By their calculation they have little to lose and if they discredit said left even slightly… but the damage to the discourse is difficult to take, even if we put all else aside.
This is, as was also noted last night, oddly reminiscent of the Green Party, who also went through a similar process, albeit one after they arrived in government rather than before, of attempting to project ‘responsibility’ as if were the primary political virtue, and the jettisoning of if not the entirety of older policy positions, at least an effort to put green water between them and the party.
That that strategy wasn’t exactly successful is now all too evident, and there’s more, much more, to be written about the Green Party and what went wrong during the past three years.
Implicit in that though is a warning to the Labour Party, who though they may think that from a 2007 base if they lose say two-thirds of the support they’ve gained across the last two years they’ll be doing well.
Surely, in purely electoral terms. But if they believe that being in government is its own justification then they’re in for the same shock as the Green Party when not dissimilar circumstances leech the political capital from them.
And, unlike the Green Party, they won’t have the excuse that all this was completely new to them.
Cashing in on The Finance Bill …… January 24, 2011
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.Tags: Irish Politics
15 comments
Sinn Fein are Quick off the Mark …..
