The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Thanks but, [probably] no thanks… January 21, 2011

On foot of Niall’s question last night as to whether the Green Party would get any credit from yesterday’s events in the Dáil, it’s interesting to see how the story was being reported in the Irish Times. Under the headline ‘Greens ‘vetoed’ Cowen’s plan to appoint ministers’ it continued:

Green Party leader and Minister for the Environment John Gormley said this evening his party was not informed of the impending resignations and had opposed Mr Cowen’s original plan to make new ministerial appointments to the Cabinet.
“We did not think this was a good idea. If it went to a vote in the Dáil we would not have been in a position to support this,” he said in press conference in Dublin this evening following a Green Party meeting. “We were told …by the media about this decision. It seemed to be a fait accompli.”

While Cowen was adamant that:

…he had answered any concerns the Green Party had about a reshuffle at a meeting on Monday morning.
Mr Cowen said he was aware the Greens were “having concerns about perception” with regard to the appointment of new Fianna Fáil ministers to replace those who had resigned, but said decisions could not be made based on perception.
“What has happened is they have decided to veto the appointment of new Fianna Fáil ministers for those who are not going to stand in the next election. I believe it is cynical to leave such ministers in office.”
Mr Cowen said he had sought to appoint people who were running for election and who had “the potential to stay in government” after an election.

This morning the emphasis was even more on the GP…check out the headline…

Taoiseach sets election date under Green Party pressure

Well, I guess there goes the Climate Change legislation, and more or less anything else the GP sought to have implemented before the end. But given that it wasn’t exactly leaping up the schedule all this does is provide a sour little coda for a government that was perhaps the most unloved in Irish political history.

So does the narrative shift to one where the GP does something right for a change, something that might be advantageous to them, or does it remain embedded in the idea that it’s too little too late. That last poll had an uptick for the GP. Not a lot and perhaps not enough to salvage more than a seat, or perhaps at very best two. But more than they’d seen in a long while.

I’m sceptical. I think in the main people have made up their minds and fairly minor tactical positioning like this is unlikely to shift them. But then again we’ve seen in actual campaigns how they can assume a shape and form that shifts radically within the space of two or three weeks.

Most likely the very slightly more favourable coverage for the GP is simply a case of a handy stick to yet further beat FF with. It’s also possible that the GP is now regarded by the other parties as little more than an irrelevance so even the likes of Frances FitzGerald yesterday on RTÉ could grudgingly concede that they’d done ‘the right thing’ while continuing to berate them for their tardiness in doing it.

And whether the ‘right thing’ was done yesterday or not in truth in the months and years subsequent to NAMA the opportunities for departure were rich, and not taken. Even now, after the events of the last two weeks the GP still hesitated and ultimately drew back.

The IT editorial today (entertainingly aghast at what happened yesterday) provides one view of these matters:

The Green Party is standing by its commitment to remain in Government until the Finance Bill has been passed. It hopes that climate change and other legislation can also be secured. Spurred on by the farming and business lobbies, Fianna Fáil backbenchers are preparing to revolt over carbon control legislation and in the circumstances, Mr Cowen is unlikely to upset them any further. Political observers have suggested that Mr Gormley would have improved the party’s chances of avoiding annihilation in the election had he left Government, offering to support the Finance Bill from the Opposition benches. But the Green Party is a neophyte in the practice of power-politics.

One would wonder if it was really that they were neophytes [particularly after the unbelievably event filled last number of years] or whether there was a recognition that leaving would do no better for them than staying, that like it or not they’d made their bed and they had to lie in it and that the electorate is now waiting in the long grass for both them and Fianna Fáil (though they may well hope its vengeance may have been partly sated at the Local Elections and that Cowen’s machinations will keep the focus tight on FF so they, the GP, can pull something from the wreckage).

So, no, the prospects for them getting thanks for their actions are minimal.

All of which points perhaps to the fact that the show has moved on and others will be making history soon enough. Their time has been and for the moment, and presumably for a long while, has gone.

Another question. A short or longer campaign? What one wonders is on offer and what will Cowen fix upon as the best way forward to exercise his inimitable, and so far unconvincing, skills.

Which leads to yet another thought, looks like the IT editorial is right when it argues:

Yesterday’s extraordinary events will provide Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin with an unexpected impetus going into a shorter-than-expected election campaign.

This is a godsend for all those parties, and indeed the opposition in total.