Moving towards end-game… February 26, 2011
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
…as more reports come in and seats are filled I’m curious as to what people think the final state of play will be, there or thereabouts…
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To start this rolling, Dorgan of FF thinks that they’ll get in or around 20 seats. FG… 75 seats? And after that? I can’t get a read on the LP.
FG low 70s – shotgun marriage with Labour – who are gagging for it – off to Europe for quick pre-arranged interest rate reduction. Victory in the ‘War on Debt’ claimed.
Then the fun starts.
I’d give them a couple of years, tops.
I wouldn’t be too sure about a FG/Labour marriage. The are a number of Independents making eyes at FG and I think a single party FG ‘United Right Alliance’ with independents is at least as much of a probability as a FG/Lab coalition.
But I agree with you the fun starts now!
I respectfully disagree – the independents will be used as a bargaining chip in deciding the dowry. Labour has been far more interested in numbers of seats in the cabinet from what I’ve heard of Labour this afternoon, there will be no great policy battle between the two.
After all, there is no alternative, going forward.
Yeah, OK, you’re probably right. FG/Lab looks likely. I suppose I’m sort of rooting for FG to feel that they can come out with all guns blazing thus precipitating mass social struggle and near revolutionary circumstances; we all have our dreams….
(First Dail in a long-time that will have the son of a man who was sentenced to death in it.)
About two years in, FG-Labour, urged on by SINDO hysteria, will attempt to take on public sector unions- ICTU will call a general strike this time. Next general election will see several more ULA-left independents elected but also several Eamonn Blaney, Ross type right-wingers. The Dail’s first case of mass narcolapsy will occur with Gerry Adams first speech. Shane Ross will be the first to mention Jean McConville. SF Belfast leadership will sound out prospects of coalition with FG. Mick Wallace will drive a JCB into the Dail chamber. Dylan Haskins to top the poll next time, as Christian Solidarity candidate.
Yeah, but what happens then?
Capn – I’m racking my brains but the son of man reference went way over my head. Please enlighten my weary head.
Pringle?
Labour looking at 37 tonight.
Sean Haughey gone, gone, gone…
Coughlan, Carey, Andrews, Lenihan (the mad one), Curran, Haughey, Roche, Mansergh, Brady, Power, Connick.
And then technically not ministers, but only recently in that condition: Gormley, Ryan, Cuffe, Sargent, White.
Independent, Donegal.
Is good!
Irish Times calls it like this:
Latest counting suggests Fine Gael will win 76 seats, Labour will take 36 and Fianna Fáil will get 25, including outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seamus Kirk. Sinn Féin looks set to take 12, Independents will win 13, the United Left Alliance will take four and the Green Party will lose all six of their seats.
SF already have twelve, and I would suggest that Ó Snodaigh will also crawl over the line, and perhaps that fellow in Laois-Offaly as well.
Logic demands (and so should lefties) a FG-FF coalition. But I suppose the Civil War still matters…
It is not a civil war thing. That is hackneyed. They are 2 bourgeois machine.FF is as republican as the American Republican Party is the party of Lincoln. It suits to avoid a left/right divide. It also suits the Labour Party to avoid the need for real left policies in government (need to compromise etc.).
Now there is a real opposition in the Dail.