jump to navigation

Open thread on the Election results as they come in and that Exit Poll… February 26, 2011

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.
trackback

I’m converting this into an open thread on results as they come in. As regards the Exit Poll, read on…

Well well well. I shouldn’t have let my innate caution be swayed by rising poll numbers towards the end of the campaign for Fine Gael, for if the RTÉ exit poll is correct, and usual caveats apply given that national figures won’t map precisely onto local contests then FG settled back into the mid-range of the 30s. And that implies that all the super-heated chatter about FG getting up to 80 seats has been very very wide of the mark.

…the poll predicts that Fine Gael will get 36.1% – the party’s best result since November 1982, but some way short of what it would need for an overall majority.

Labour is in second place on 20.5%, which would be its best ever share of the vote. The party is ahead of Fine Gael in Dublin.

Fianna Fáil support is put at just 15.1%, by far its worst ever General Election result, and signalling an electoral wipeout.

Sinn Féin support is put at 10.1%, again a record, while the Greens are on 2.7%, which could see the party save some seats.

Independents and Others get the support of 15.5% – a very high figure, though it may be spread quite thinly given the number of candidates, and where those votes transfer could be crucial to the final outcome.

Dismal for Fianna Fáil. Not as bad as it might have been for the Labour Party – sorry, let me amend that, it’s an excellent result for the LP by any measure and still ahead in Dublin. This could be interesting. Actually quite good for Sinn Féin, they may wonder about that LP Dublin figure, remarkably good for Independents, almost stunningly so given that they collectively with smaller parties had less than half that figure in the last election, but with the problem that transfers will tell all and is that a hint of good news for the Green Party?

Looks like a Fine Gael/Labour coalition is very firmly set to be the political future here.

ADDENDUM; Adding a bit of further caution I’d imagine it’s highly likely that both the LP and SF figures will settle just a little more. We’ll see.

About these ads

Comments»

1. EamonnCork - February 26, 2011

Moderately encouraging, stick the Lab and SF votes together along with those of the left independents (which are probably more than half of that total) and you get a bigger vote than FG. I wonder if the quite shocking levels of premature celebration from Kenny and the boys may have cost FG a few points, it left Kinnock’s famous Sheffield ululations in the ha’penny place.
Bear in mind too that the Left always does better than the exit poll and early tallies suggest because of the tendency for candidates to pick up transfers and it might not be quite such a dispiriting day.
Remember in 2007 a FF majority was predicted both in the morning and lunchtime but faded away in the later counts. I could see FG suffering a similar shortfall. Lunchtime tallies will be interesting as well.
By the way I think I’ve worked out the reasons for Lucinda Creighton’s daft homophobic outburst. She saw all those ‘Sommerville’ posters in Dublin South East and thought she was running against Jimmy rather than Paul.
Big turnout is, I suspect, good for SF and the ULA.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

“I wonder if the quite shocking levels of premature celebration from Kenny and the boys may have cost FG a few points, it left Kinnock’s famous Sheffield ululations in the ha’penny place.”

I sure hope so, and I think it did.

“By the way I think I’ve worked out the reasons for Lucinda Creighton’s daft homophobic outburst. She saw all those ‘Sommerville’ posters in Dublin South East and thought she was running against Jimmy rather than Paul.”
:) Except, except, she’s going to be one of the TDs in [one of] the governing parties.
:(

Like

Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

I’d love to see Eoghan International-Peacekeeper-And-Canvaser-Of-Swimmers-From-My-Office Murphy get a higher FG vote than her.

Like

2. Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

How would you calculate independent seats from the high independent exit poll?

I would reckon they will do less well on transfers than parties — any party. After you’ve given your first few preferences, you might not know your [SF|FF|FG|GP|Lab|SP] candidate, but I would guess that what you know about their party leader they might be more amendable to a low preference than a complete unknown independent. and, if my thinking is right, will skew the final seats back to the parties from the independents.

Like

Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

I don’t know – the big question is where will the FF transfers go to? My guess is a few to FG, and roughly equally Lab / SF / non-ULA independent.

Like

3. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Expat’s poll at ballotbox.ie gives final count after transfers of:

** Fine Gael – 63 seats
** Labour – 51 seats
** Sinn Fein – 23 seats
** Independents – 11 seats
** Greens – 10 seats
** People Before Profit – 3
** Socialist Party – 2
** Fianna Fail – 2

Like

4. Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

It’s a very nteresting poll but how does one map it onto the actual situation? Suggests that those who leave are more radicalised.

Like

smiffy - February 26, 2011

It doesn’t mean much, I think. The number of votes was low (about 5,500) and it was very easy to vote multiple times. I wouldn’t pay it any more attention than any other internet poll (boards.ie, politics.ie etc).

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Yep, that sounds right. The p.ie one was hilarious.

Like

Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Yes – sample size tiny – there was some control through the use of passport numbers – it’s a shame that we don’t have accurate figures. My suspicions is that Irish citizens abroad would be much more radical. A successful campaign / European Court case for suffrage would change the electoral picture significantly.

Like

5. D_D - February 26, 2011

Maybe a c.31% result for Labour in Dublin, making them the biggest party in the capital, plus the votes for SF and the left, and a combined c.35% for FF and FG in Dublin, would stop some trade union leaders whining about workers backing (what they call) right wing parties as an excuse for their inaction and cave ins.

And then their line? Don’t rock the coalition boat. You might put an all-right government in.

Will 2011 see the return of the rank and file?

With Labour in the straitjacket and time to build a new left, the next election (sooner or later?) could see another electoral shift.

Meanwhile on the streets. We are being told that the North Africans only want what we had yesterday, an election. With elections plus austerity where will the crowds gather in Dublin, O’Connell or Molesworth/Kildare, Merrion Streets? Sooner or later?

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Love to think it was sooner. A raft of left TDs can’t but help that process.

Like

6. D_D - February 26, 2011

This post on politics.ie

http://www.politics.ie/elections/152745-dun-laoghaire-poll-27.html

looks like an early tally from Dun Laoghaire:

Andrews 6% Bacik 10% Barrett 19% RBB 11% Cuffe 3% Gilmore 23% Hanafin 9% MMOC 14% based on 30%

Like

7. D_D - February 26, 2011

SF tally in Dublin North (politics.ie):

“Word from the count centre. 2 FF candidates are gone.

Looks like Ryan, Kelleher, Daily [sic] and a battle between Sargent and Farrell for the last. More over half the boxes open.”

Like

8. RosencrantzisDead - February 26, 2011

Irish Times is reporting that Paul Gogarty has conceded defeat in Dublin Mid-West.

Like

9. D_D - February 26, 2011

RTE tally @ 11.15:

Mick Barry (CNC) 8.5%

Dublin West:

L. Veradkar 19%
J. Higgins 18.3%
B. Lenihan 15.3%

Like

10. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Sligo North Leitrim tallies indicating FG vote management going well, Bree tallying respectably in Sligo Town, but this won’t be replicated in the country. Once the North Leitrim votes are in, I’m sticking by the 2xFG, 1xSF prediction.

Like

11. WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

I’d be a bit concerned at transfers… but I guess we’ll see.

Like

12. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

The Mighty Ming looks good for Roscommon/South Leitrim.

He should be courted for a technical group with the ULA.

Like

ec - February 26, 2011

He’s been signed up with either Fis Nua or New Vision in runup to election. (cabn’t tell em apart myself but it’s not whichever one is the ex greenie one). Could there be two technical groups? One rightish and one left?

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Surely. Why not?

Like

13. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

6% for Gormless? Who are these people?

Like

14. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Wee Willie insufficiently deflated to rule out Dáil entry. Who are these people, part deax?

Like

Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

deux.

Like

15. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Loved this from RTE:

Christian Solidarity Party’s Manus McMeanmain says he’s very unhappy that his party logo wasn’t on the ballot paper and was instead represented by an image that he claims looks like a picture of nuts.

Like

16. WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Mick Wallace looking good which is a nice surprise.

Finian, and I know he’s seen as an apostate but I’m kind of fond of him, verylikely to be back in and no Haughey.

Sinn Fein gain in Dublin NE. Fair fecks.

RBB hmmm… They’re saying Bacik maybe.

Like

CMK - February 26, 2011

Just on RTE, Wallace tallying 12,500 first prefs. Quota likely to be 12,800; definitely across the line. ULA closer to a technical group?

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Ming doing very well. Never thought I’d ever write that sentence…

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

Remember that you don’t have to have anything in common to be in a technical group. It’s entirely possible that a technical group could include a huge swathe of random right wing and pothole independents.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Very true. But I’d presume the ULA if it doesn’t get seven Tds will want to be in with like minds, no?

Like

Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

And the ULA going into a Technical Group with right-wing Indies would make a nonsense of the ULA’s snubbing of SF because SF supposedly isn’t Left enough.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Well, they don’t necessarily have to. They might have O’Sullivan, McGrath, Wallace, etc… who would all be left of centre.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

A “technical group” isn’t “going in” with anyone. The whole point of a technical group is that it’s a technical arrangement which is not predicated on any political agreement. I’d have no problem forming a technical group with Sinn Fein either, although the Provos are highly unlikely to need such an arrangement this time around.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

That’s true Mark P, but there is an argument that a Technical Group that had a clearer political identity and this seems like a real prospect this time would be superior to a simple arrangement.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

sinn fein was good enough for Joe Higgins in 2002 when he worked with them in the technical group, but not good enough for them during the election but… finian McGrath, supporter of cuts and charge will probably be good enough for Higgins as he’ll need McGrath in order to get speaking time. higgins and Daly will need to kiss some reformist ring in order to be heard. and they’ll do it as well.

Ming, of course, is standing with the pro-life, pro-business, New Vision alliance. His stance on canabis is about business, pure and simple. he’s a capitalist at heart. But, if it comes to speaking time I’m sure he’ll do for Daly and Higgins.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

But Mark P is correct. A Technical Group is a different beast to a political alliance. So you’re not really comparing like with like.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

By the way I disagree with Mark’s stance on SF, but it’s entirely his prerogative.

Like

Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

I agree with both Mark P’s prerogative and WBS’s view but it looks like it’s all academic anyway given predictions for ULA/Left Indies and SF (fingers crossed).

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

Oh I’m sure the Socialists will justify it once they have to.

They’re good at that.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

Once more, summerscale, it’s not a question of “good enough” when it comes to technical groups. Technical groups are technical arrangements not predicated on political agreement or approval.

It’s particularly amusing to see SF supporters try to argue otherwise now that it suits them, when you recall that a certain Michael Lowry and SF were in a technical group together in 2002.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

and i’m sure that if none of the socialist were elected, the Socialists would go “oh fair enough” if RBB and joan Collins won seats and formed a technical group with Shane Ross.

It’s not like they’d use it to bitch or anything.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

See what I mean?

Mark P’s already using a technical group to bitch about others.

worse than the priesthood that lot.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

At this point, summerscale, I’m not sure if you are a troll or simply a moron.

The Socialist Party has been in a technical group with right wingers in the past. Sinn Fein has been in a technical group with right wingers in the past. In both cases, it was a technical arrangement not predicated on political agreement or approval.

Like

Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

That would be a fair point, Mark, if there was a Left Technical Group alternative to the Lowry link-up then.

Was there?

Like

D_D - February 26, 2011

Contrasting Sinn Féin with others on the basis of support for cuts and charges is hazardous.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

But you used it to bitch about SF. Talking about Lowry.

you need to make up your mind.

Will Joe higgins be giving speaking time to right-wingers?

Of course he will. and he’ll justify it with semantics.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

No, I didn’t use it to bitch about Sinn Fein, you semi-literate dimwit. I used it to poke fun at SF supporters trying to imply that a technical group is something other than a technical arrangement now that it suits them, when in fact they were in a technical agreement with Michael Lowry not so long ago.

I didn’t criticise SF for being in a technical group with Lowry at all.

Like

Cross Swords - February 26, 2011

It is funny to watch Mark P row back on his holier then thou attitude now that the socialists have a chance of three seats.

Claire Daly and michael lowry sharing speaking time.

Everyone would see that as a technical arrangement, Mark P, that’s true.

but were it not for Daly’s involvement, you’d be here slinging shit at such a relationship.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

“…you semi-literate dimwit.”

charming.

will I pick up that doll you’ve just thrown out of your pram there Mark P?

or will we just let Michael Lowry pick it up for you?

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

@ D-D and Mark P.

I love this assumption that any criticism of the socialists ends up with a “sinn fein supporter” retort.

you don’t have to be a sinn fein supporter to notice hypocracy when you see it.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

How completely bizarre this particular line of criticism is. I’ve never said a single negative word about anyone entering a technical group and neither has the Socialist Party. The Socialist Party has been in one in the past with both Sinn Fein and Michael Lowry. I’d have no problem with being in one in the future with either. The whole point of a technical group is that it doesn’t involve political agreement or approval. Sinn Fein didn’t approve of the politics of Michael Lowry when they were in a technical group with him, or Finian McGrath for that matter, and the only people who tried to imply that they did were dishonest Labour Party partisans – something which SF vigorously and correctly disputed.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

“HoW completely bizzare this particular line of criticism…”

Oh I agree.

First you thought I was a SF supporter, then you brought up Sinn Fein and Lowry in a technical group, then you called me a moron, after that I was a semi-literate dimwit, and now, finally, you’ve gone for the calm and reasonable approach.

It’s like listening to a speech by Gaddafi.

After all of that, Mark P, Jack Jamenson’s point still stands:

“And the ULA going into a Technical Group with right-wing Indies would make a nonsense of the ULA’s snubbing of SF because SF supposedly isn’t Left enough.”

The ULA’s no tranfer approach, something you yourself were quite proud of yesterday, means that centre-left/liberal candidates have been looked over by the ULA in favour of forming a technical group with right-wingers.

How noble!

To take such a principled stand before the election so that you can get into bed with some right-wingers after it.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

John’s original post only makes sense if you think that a technical group is something other than a technical group. Once you understand what a technical group is, his jibe, which you seem intent on flogging to death didn’t really make sense.

The Socialist Party has entered a technical groups with other parties, right wing independents, left wing independents and pothole independents in the past and would have no problem being in one with any of them again. Sinn Fein has entered a technical groups with other parties, right wing independents, left wing independents and pothole independents in the past and would have no problem being in one with any of them again. This says nothing about either party because technical groups are not political alliances, but a technical arrangement to avoid being denied your share of speaking time.

Like

Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

Mind you Mark, Joe Higgins was in the same 2002 group. But in a way that doesn’t undermine your broader point which is that these are technical groups.

On a broader point to all of us…

This may be one of the best days for the left in all it’s forms in decades. Perhaps ghat should be front and centre.

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

It looks like the Greens will pick up one, maybe two seats.

Will we have Joe higgins and Tevor Sargent, doing a deal for speaking time?

After all, it’s just a technical group.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

The stats I’m looking at don’t look good for Ryan or Sargeant, so are you sure they’re in with a chance?

Like

summerscale - February 26, 2011

It would be fun, though, wouldn’t it? A

fter all the holier than thou posturing by the socialists, then having to turn around and do a grubby little deal with the Greens in order to get some speaking time?

transfer only to left candiates before the election, but press the flesh with whoever is standing after it.

It’s the pre-election snobbery of the socialists I find amusing, given the fact that in the absense of seven seats they’ll have to strike deals with right-wingers and free marketeers in order to speak.

Interesting to hear shane Ross give a shout out to Joe higgins on RTE.

The consummate politican that Shane. already thinking ahead.

which is more than you can say for the Socialists and Mark P.

Sargent’s vote is a sargent vote, if you know what I mean. And for that reason I’ll say he’ll pick up some interesting transfers. He might just do it for them.

Like

dilettante - February 26, 2011

Mark P is absolutely correct. But it makes a nonsense of the idea of a ‘left technical group’ and a ‘right technical group’. A technical group is a technical group. Full stop.

The interesting thing would be if a more political group can be formed by a political party which has more than 7 seats (SF) with parties or independents (ULA and left indos) which do not (eg. based on opposition to the EU/IMF deal)? And in doing so it there a chance of putting a bigger group than FF? A somehow more political group which would still allow for the separate political identities of its component parts to be respected? (Anyone know if the rules would allow for it?)

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

My understanding is that a Technical Group is simply the badge, as it were, and that whatever arrangements those within a group sought to make would be entirely up to them, so for example you could have a ULA plus three or four like minded Indo’s that would articulate an agreed line with agreed speaking shares, etc and even a shared ‘identity’. Nothing to stop it at all.

As interesting is the idea of what happens if SF gets some of the wilder upper numbers of TDs being put around, say 15 plus, which seems high – though not impossible, and then did a deal with others to become a coherent left group… depending on where FF returns that might allow them to be the main oppposition.

Very much an outside chance, but… who knows?

Like

DublinDilettante - February 26, 2011

To disagree with my near-namesake above, no left group could form a quasi-formal alliance with SF whilst remaining faithful to its principles IMO. The compromises would be completely one-sided. Otherwise there’s nothing in it for SF.

Like

dilettante - February 26, 2011

A technical group with a particular (even limited) political orientation takes on at least some of the characteristics of a political group. It is no longer a technical group as described by Mark P. In which case where would be the political coherence in (eg.) the ULA refusing to consider political cooperation with SF, meanwhile throwing themselves into a political cooperation with left independents, some of whom have spent the last few years propping up the FF government?

And even if some (eg. ULA) rule out cooperation with SF then would some of the other independents be better served by looking for an arrangement with SF rather than with a technical group which may or may not include Michael Lowry?

I’m not saying that it’s a realistic political prospect, but it’s worth throwing it out there to be chewed over.

Like

Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

I don’t have a problem with realpolitik technical arrangements when they’re unavoidable because there’s no Left alternative, just the ‘prolier than thou’ attitudes adhered to by some when it suits.

Still, as I said earlier, it looks like it’s an academic argument.

Like

Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

BTW: I voted ULA Number 2 ;)

Like

17. WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Dessie Ellis looking good too…

Like

18. Martin Liddy - February 26, 2011

I don’t think Fine Gael got cocky, not after the first 100 day strategy http://www.finegael2011.com/pressreleases.asp?artId=5E5A57

But I do think people simply rejected the idea of a single party government.

Martin

Like

19. Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

Mick Wallace to top the poll in Wexford?

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Yep. Joan Collins looking good in Dublin.

Like

20. fergal - February 26, 2011

ULA could link up with T Pringle,C Murphy,Mcgrath?,Wallace,Ming…early days yet starting to hot up

Like

21. fergal - February 26, 2011

and C Connolly Galway W

Like

22. D_D - February 26, 2011

Shane Ross talking on RTE about Independents’ result pointing to need for a new force in Irish politics. But surely some of them (if elected) would opt for an association (in the Dáil anyway) with the left: Mick Wallace, Ming, Thomas Pringle, Catherine Connolly.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Surely hope so.

Like

23. WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Meanwhile, by a rough tally SF look set to get 8 seats fairly straightforwardly, at least two more with a bit more of a struggle and three or four more in contention.

Like

Earl Williams - February 26, 2011

And will the Bould Gerry be amongst them?

Like

24. Paddy M - February 26, 2011

Longford-Westmeath looking like a FF-free zone at the moment. FG will take two, Willie Penrose of Labour will take a seat, and the last looks like been a battle between a 3rd FGer and the well-known Longford Marxist intellectual, Mae Sexton :-P

Like

Paddy M - February 26, 2011

*looks like being

Like

25. Jack Jameson - February 26, 2011

As an aside re the Indies, maybe we’d all be helped (esp voters) if Independents had to declare themselves Independent/Left, Independent/Right or Independent/Centre if they felt they were ‘neither Left nor Right’ (a bit like the Greens).

Like

26. LeftAtTheCross - February 26, 2011

Disappointing result for WP in Meath-West, where candidate Séamus McDonagh came in bottom of the poll (based on tally). However, the glass is half-full in this conservative largely rural constituency, as FF will lose both existing seats and 3rd seat will be fought out between SF/LP, although downside is that FG will pick a 2nd seat. Looking ahead to a few years of Tatcherite FG government, class consciousness can only go in one direction from here, and with SF/LP polling strongly for 1st time at least it’s a small step in the correct direction.

Like

27. alastair - February 26, 2011

Big surprises for me are the strength of the Mick Wallace vote – figured he’d take a seat alright, but this is something else.

Also surprised at the Mary Lou vote in Dublin Central – thought she’d be struggling much more. Looks safe enough at the mo.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

Things looking a lot tighter for O’Sullivan.

Like

alastair - February 26, 2011

Maureen will be okay – far more transfer-friendly than Mary Lou.

Like

Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

What’s your thought on MLMs prospects in that scenario?

Like

alastair - February 26, 2011

She’ll take the last seat over Aine Clancy

Like

28. CMK - February 26, 2011

Only getting snippets of coverage, how are the Greens doing? Will any make it?

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

Gormley, Gogarty, Boyle, White, Cuffe all completely humiliated. Ryan and Sargent both very much down but still in with some sort of shot.

Like

CMK - February 26, 2011

Damn!! Fingers crossed that neither makes it. From the little I’ve picked up over the past few hours, it looks like the last seat in Dublin North is between FG/FF & Labour with not-so-clever Trevor out of the running completely? I’d love to be fly on the wall in the Ryan household if he doesn’t make it, he’ll probably be up in the attic rooting round for that Labour party membership form he filled out in college but forgot to post – there’s a Senate election soon, not to late to post it, Eamon!

Like

De Northside Socialist - February 26, 2011

From RTE election site (matches what is being said on RTE Radio 1):

“1524 David McCullagh: Labour has performed well in the capital, while Fine Gael is still not ruling out the possibility of an overall majority.

It looks like a good day for Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin, and Independents and smaller parties, and a dismal prospect for Fianna Fáil and the Greens.

Only Trevor Sargent and – as a very outside possibility – Eamon Ryan still look like they could challenge for seats for the Greens.”

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html

Like

29. Open thread on the Election results as they come in and that Exit … | The Daily Conservative - February 26, 2011

[...] the original post: Open thread on the Election results as they come in and that Exit … Share and [...]

Like

30. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

News from wexford count: As you know 1. Wallace. Tallymen say: 2. Howlin
3.Twomey (fg) 4. P.Kehoe (fg) 5.Darcy (fg) and Browne (ff) fighting for last seat.
FG hacks v. surprised. Expected Kehoe and Twomey to fight for last seat.

Like

Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

A lot of surprised FF and FG people around

Like

31. Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

FF candidate in Sublin North. East looks gutted

Like

32. RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 26, 2011

Crowe is in the bag.

O’Broin is going to be in a dog fight in Dublin Mid West. Pray to god that those two ULA candidates transfer in good numbers to him.

Like

Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

Yes.

Catherine murphy looking good in Kildare North.

People thinking Bacik over RBB.

Like

RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 26, 2011

I’m kicking myself for placing bets on both to take seats.
I’m not being sexist of anything but I’d say Bacik could pull it off due to transfers from female candidates and from female voters. Wonder what’ll happen to the ULA if RBB doesn’t get elected. It’d be a crying shame if he didn’t.

FF will probably pick up one in Kildare South mainly due to the fact both Lab and FG just ran one – stupid decision in hindsight.

In Cavan-Monaghan the tally figures could’ve been a bit better for SF. Hard to see 26% translate into two seats.

Like

alastair - February 26, 2011

“People thinking Bacik over RBB.”

That’d be unexpected. I didn’t hold much hope for Ivana.

Like

RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 26, 2011

He’s ahead of her by 450 votes.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

O’Broin will pick up a large transfer from Kenny and Connolly, you can bank on it. Whether that will be enough for him to win is less clear, but he’s in with a shout.

Boyd Barrett has a margin of 470 votes over Bacik. Whichever of them is ahead when it comes down to Gilmore (elected), Barrett (elected), MMOC (elected), Hanafin, Boyd Barrett and Bacik will probably elect the other. Hanafin will overtake them both on Andrews transfers and then will probably be overtaken in turn.

Hopefully Richard will make it, but I tend to think that there are just too many right wing tranfers to come for his lead to hold. Right wingers will heavily favour Bacik in that particular two horse race.

Seamus Healy 8,818 votes in Tip South and guaranteed to be elected. Joe Higgins has been declared elected. Daly on 7,513 and looking very good indeed. Collins seems to be doing very well in DSC.

Like

Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

Dowds will pick up a lot of Curran transfers — both Clondalkin based. Word I’m hearing from those at the tally is that those transfers will be enough to keep Dowds ahead of Ó Broin.

Like

33. alastair - February 26, 2011

That Shane Ross vote is impressive – 17,075 in a quota of 12,108.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Make you wonder though how much is a sort of Lee redux vote.

Like

EWI - February 26, 2011

It’s the Sindo-reader floating vote!

Like

34. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

Clear as hell – RBB unfortunately will not get enough transfers to get in.
Look at the line-up underneath – a gerontocratic FF middle-class vote.
Green votes – more likely to go to Bacik and of course Gilmore’s surplus.
V. good vote management by FG. Voters in Blackrock, Booterstown and Monkstown etc. instructed to vote for the ex PD.

Like

Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Looks like you are right, or should I say correct – and it’s a shame. I don’t care for his party, but RBB’s political instincts and abilities would have made him an asset in the Dáil.

Like

35. Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

Looks like we’ll have our first openly gay TD, and probably two. Hannigan is topping the poll in Meath East. Lyons to get in in Dublin NW

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

Good news.

Like

36. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

looking at Dublin West figures. If Joan Burton had bothered with better vote management, Nulty would have been in a position to overhaul one of the architects of the sell-out of the country for the sake of rogue and criminal bankers.
The curse of the Labour quota-squatter again.

Like

37. D_D - February 26, 2011

ULA first count results so far:

RBB 10.9%
J Higgins 19% Now Elected
M Murphy 5.2%
G Kenny 5.8%
R Connolly 1.5%
C Daly 15.2%
N Curry 1.8%
A Keegan 2.1%
A Foley 3.4%
A Mooney 1.8%
S Healy 21.3% Now Elected
S O’Brien 1%
C Prendiville 1.7%

J Collins said to be doing well on tallies

This mixed nature of this result could be foreseen

Like

38. Earl Williams - February 26, 2011

What do we make of the lad who tried to set his ballot box on fire?

Or the activists from ‘Tir na gCasta’ (whatever that may be) who invaded a count with a picture of Enda Kenny as a woman and Michael Martin as a priest?

Like

39. Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

To the wire in Dublin Mid West.

Tuffy’s surplus and Curran’s votes come to 5916, and the difference between those placed 3rd to 5th (Ó Broin SF, Dowds Lab, Keating FG) is just 125 votes.

Overall, it will be 1 Lab, 1 FG and then two of SF, Lab, FG.

(It could have no opposition TD.)

Like

40. D_D - February 26, 2011

More ULA first count results:

J Lyons 3.6%
C MacLiam 1.5%
B Greene 2.1%

Like

41. Depps - February 26, 2011

RBB Maintaining his lead so far in Dun Laoghaire, he might just pull it off

Like

42. CMK - February 26, 2011

Adams is in. Topped the poll.

Like

43. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

Depps – I wish RBB could pull it off, but unless there are significant transfers secreted in the Green and Fianna Fail transfers, which as I have pointed out is not likely. RBB needed at the least, in my opinion, nearly 8,000 1st preferences to be certain.
Miracles do happen as transfers are counted but I would have to say this one is just a ballot to far for RBB.

Like

44. Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

Dublin Mid West – Curran Transfers didn’t clear it all up. Dowds (Lab) looks in, but there are two surpluses, coming to 1071 votes (Fitzgerald, FG and Tuffy Lab) to be distributed, and there are only 124 votes between Ó Broin SF and Keating FG in fourth and fifth place in the four-seater.

Like

Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

Dublin Mid West done: 2x FG & 2 x Lab. No opposition TD.

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

O’Broin came close.

Like

45. RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 26, 2011

Bree only got 5.2% in Sligo North Leitrim. I though he’d do much better. Thats half of what the Labour candidate got.

Last seat seems to be between Colreavy and one of the FFer’s

Extremely surprising result in Cork East.

In my native county Clare it’s starting to look like 3 FG 1 Lab. I’ll wait till they distribute J.Breens surplus though.

Like

46. Mark P - February 26, 2011

Seamas Healy elected, takes the first seat in Tipp South.

John Lyons got 1,500 plus in Dublin North Central, which is very decent for a first time candidate for a small left party.

Mick Barry polls 4,883 in Cork North Central. He won’t be in the final shakedown, but a big step forward for him.

Like

47. Mark P - February 26, 2011

Boyd Barrett has actually stretched his lead to just under 600. And that includes Gilmore’s surplus, which wasn’t huge for Bacik.

He is more transfer friendly than most left candidates and Bacik may well be less transfer friendly than most Labour candidates, so I’m not quite ready to write him off entirely. That said, the eliminations so far have been from independents (and the CSP), and so are probably more anti-establishment than the Greens and FFers to come.

Like

Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

But there are 11,400 votes in the cethree ministers losing their seats. That’s too large to call.

Like

48. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Declan Bree got about 5% in Sligo North Leitrim. Non FF/FG first preference vote is 51% and they may even get representation in the shape of the SF candidate Colreavy.

Like

49. De Northside Socialist - February 26, 2011

RTE dúnlaoghaire: Ivana Bacik CONCEDES margin too big to catch up
#dunl
Sat Feb 26 19:33:43 via Twitter for iPhone

Like

50. summerscale - February 26, 2011

Mick Murphy just got Sean Crowe elected.A vote for the socialists, it seems, was a vote for sinn fein :-)

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

Hardly news that there tend to be high transfers between Sinn Fein and the socialist left.

Bacik has not in fact conceded, she has just said that it “will be hard” to bridge the gap.

Like

51. Captain Rock - February 26, 2011

30 plus % of SF tranfers go to Labour, which is not recipricated.

Like

52. Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

Love the symbolism of RTÉ Radio just now: cut off Cowen in Laois-Offaly count centre to go to Mayo for the first count.

Like

53. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

Yes Mark P it is not over for RBB. It will depend on what happens with green transfers and with FF transfers. 600 is not enough of a gap. We live in hope as always.

Like

Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

Is there still a woman’s vote? That could see a dollop of Hanafin’s transfers go to Bacik.

Like

CMK - February 26, 2011

A fair few DL green voters might go to RBB.

Like

Depps - February 26, 2011

Hopefully that wont come in to it. Andrews transfers should put Hannafin ahead of both of them but whoever is ahead between Bacik and RBB at that stage should get through ahead of Hannafin on the others transfers. Ridiculously close at the moment but I think RBB will just sneak it

Like

54. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Gaming and failing to game the system:

FF may have lost up to 10 seats by running two candidates when they should have run one. And FG have gained more than that by precision vote management.

Like

Tomboktu - February 26, 2011

How many will Labour have lost or gained from doing it in some places and not in others?

Like

55. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

As we can see the gap between RBB & Ivana has narrowed considerably on green transfers. Now it is the FF papers that will come into play.

Like

56. Depps - February 26, 2011

RBB 153 ahead of Bacik, nearly 400 votes to be distributed from Sean Barrett. If RBB can hang on here he should be in

Like

57. 1798Mike - February 26, 2011

Well, well – amazing situation in Dun Laoghaire. Thank you god even though you don’t exist. The age of miracles is not over.
Sorry for my doubts.

Like

58. irishelectionliterature - February 26, 2011

Looks as if Bacik eliminated now and RBB has a gap of around 400 to Hanafin

Like

Mark P - February 26, 2011

Looking good for Boyd Barrett and a fifth ULA seat!

Like

59. Depps - February 26, 2011

Bacik gone gap of nearly 600 to Hanafin, surely there will be enough transfers from Bacik to make that up?

Talk of Labour looking for a recount though

Like

Worldbystorm - February 26, 2011

Yeah heard that fair dues to RBB excellent ULA performance

Like

60. Mark P - February 26, 2011

Finally Dublin South Central first count in:

Collins 6574, quota 8488…

Apparently, count in Dun Laoghaire has been suspended until the morning because Labour are demanding a total recount.

Like

61. Bartley - February 26, 2011

Calling a recount with that gap just isnt criket.

Is Ivana channelling Deirdre de Burca now?

Wont make a wits difference in any case. RBB should shade it over MaryH.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

How are you doing? Haven’t seen you round here in a while. Good election for you?

Like

Bartley - February 26, 2011

Good, good, very busy, thanks for asking :)

Been lurking here a bit, following your excellent analyses of the polling data tsumnami.

Like

62. Pope Epopt - February 26, 2011

Now about to see what transfers from crypto-FF fraudster and one FF candidate out of two are going to do in Sligo / North Leitrim. I’m beginning to have a sinking feeling about the third seat. FF/Lab too evenly balanced and FF may sneak in.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 26, 2011

One of their few good results though.

Like

63. NollaigO - February 26, 2011

I had a fiver on Thomas Pringle when he was 2/1 against.
Unfortunately that’s partially cancelled by an earlier 3/1 bet that FG would have under 70 seats!

Like

64. shane - February 26, 2011

Like

65. 1798Mike - February 27, 2011

Notice the appalling Labour performance in Wicklow. Tipped for 2 seats but worse performance than in last election. Clearly a lot of left of centre voters have given up on Labour in Wicklow.

Like

Worldbystorm - February 27, 2011

Dismal performance, was sorry to see Nicky Kelly do so badly.

Like

66. Captain Rock - February 27, 2011

Had McManus stood, she’d surely have won a seat.

Like

67. Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

Second openly gay TD has just been elected. (We’re a modern democracy now.)

Like

Worldbystorm - February 27, 2011

Well if that was all it took I’d be happy, but good result

Like

68. Pope Epopt - February 27, 2011

Sligo North Leitrim on 6th count with no-one elected yet.

At least the spawn of Dracula/Mac the Penknife dynasty was averted here – even if Scanlon scrapes in in the end.

Like

Pope Epopt - February 27, 2011

Someone is right on the internet!

Unofficial transfer results make it look like Sligo North Leitrim will go 2xFG 1xSF as predicted on this channel a while back.

(…reporter heads blearily to scratcher.)

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2011

Weird how SF is picking up in contests like that. I was a bit amused by how someone on RTÉ said they were under the radar to the media. True, but not under your radar Pope Epopt!

Like

69. Kevin Barrington - February 27, 2011

Well Enda, you’ve done it.

Now you’re on the radio saying the people have voted for change.

Here’s your chance to be historic.

You can give them real change.

Cynicism rightly reigns as Fianna Fail have destroyed the country through putting the party’s interests first.

For a decade poll after poll has shown the public’s view of Enda.

Fine Gael had to adopt an unprecented media policy of hiding its leader and failing that, one of damage limitation.

And you only have to listen to his first “leader” intervierw to see him reinforce the urgency of resigning.

His vision?

“To make Ireland the best little country in the world.”

Best?
Jesus H Christ, everyone I know would be thrilled with a functioning one.
A functioning country that strived for fairness”
A country that did not cause you to despair.
Skip the Waltons Americana
But on the subject of the Waltons.
Despite all that has been dumped on them, the Iirsh are decent enough.
And if Enda wants to indulge his camp tendencies…let him be queen.

Enda – go on and dress up as Taoiseach for a week.
Lipstick whatever you – you can do a Lola Enda Kenny like those 48 sheep posters.

It’s cool. “PADDY” is cool with it.
Enjoy it.
Then resign.

And you may then get what you always lacked:
Respect.
And it would be a unique act that would tackle public cynicism about politics and would create a major difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

And it would save us from hearing the most obscenely offensive soap operatic visions like
The Best Little Country In The World.

ENDA DO THE RIGHT THING. RESIGN

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2011

That would be change we could believe in!

Like

Earl Williams - February 27, 2011

In the immortal words of Bart Simpson – ‘we’re just like the Waltons – we’re also praying for an end to the Depression’.

Like

70. Kevin Barrington - February 27, 2011

They are something else Fianna Fail.
Their last act of treachery is to bequeath us Dame Enda Average.

Like

Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

Disgusted with Conor Lenihan on the radio last night who mentioned that he is still the minister for science and technology for the moment.

Like

71. Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

I count three former DSP members in the new Dáil: Jan O’Sullivan (in one of those confusingly renamed Limericks), Michael Conagahan in Dublin SC, and Eamonn Maloney in Dublin SW. It’s been a long haul for the latter two of those.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2011

If you like that you may enjoy a Left Archive post in the next couple of weeks.

Like

72. Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

Just thinking as I listen to the radio resuming its coverage that there’s plenty of material for picture rounds for table quizes, with photos of new TDs.

Like

WorldbyStorm - February 27, 2011

There sure is.

Like

73. RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 27, 2011

Boyd Barrett pulled it off (fair play to the man).

What is it with Laois-Offaly? They’re so fricking slow. The Dublin counts (bar Dun Laoghaire and DSC) were all pretty brisk.

Like

alastair - February 27, 2011

Could be worse – it could be the Wicklow tallymen.

Like

RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 27, 2011

Speaking of which SF have deployed legal advisers to the Wicklow count centre.

This is going to be fun.

Like

Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

Well, the Dublin elections are run by two people: the city and county sheriffs. Everywhere elese, the returning officer has just one election to do. I wonder if running multiple elections gives the two Dublin returning officers more experience, and more experienced people, to make the whole process simpler.

Like

74. Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

[Presuming a FG-Lab coalition is formed] Four Dublin constituencies will have no opposition TD: Mid West, North, North East, South East. Has that happened before, and if so, to such an extent?

Like

RepublicanSocialist1798 - February 27, 2011

The only one I can think of was Donegal North East between 1997 to 2007 (FF and Blaney’s IFF).

Like

Doloras LaPicho - February 28, 2011

Clare Daly (SP/ULA) is an opposition TD in Dublin North.

Like

Tomboktu - February 28, 2011

Whoops. I got that one wrong. It’s just the three in Dublin, then.

Like

75. Tomboktu - February 27, 2011

Interesting

[I got it elsewhere]

Like

76. Tomboktu - February 28, 2011

No woman TD on the FF benches.

Like

77. WorldbyStorm - February 28, 2011

Amazing stuff. Quick question, how do people rate Connolly’s chances of taking Galway West and john Brady’s chances in Wicklow?

Like

78. Tomboktu - February 28, 2011

Conolly in Galway: three FG candidates below her, Grealish above her. She would need 500 more transfers from them than he gets. I don’t know if there is a geographical bias in the votes that Walsh, Kyne and Healy Eames have. I doubt a gender transfer would sway it, and I suspect FG voters would be more inclined to centrish ex-PD Grealish than a left-moving ex-Lab Connolly. But I am in Dublin.

Like

79. Tomboktu - March 1, 2011

Fleming has pulled up to within 500 votes of Cowen on Moloney’s transfers — a Laois to Laois preference.

Foley is Offaly, and could push Cowen ahead.

It would be some for protest Foley’s vote go to another party and the other county: Stanley of Laois for SF. Even sweeter would be a string transfer to Whelan of Laois and Lab to keep FF out of the seat. (I can dream.)

I don’t know if it’s RTÉ’s table or the actal count, but Flanagan is showing as having a surplus of 1200, which could help fellow Laois candidates.

Like


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,367 other followers

%d bloggers like this: