The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Anyone notice the numbers in Dáil Éireann? And speaking about the Presidency… September 23, 2011

It’s odd. I’d not realized until reading about the Fianna Fáil think-in last week that something very interesting happened in relation to the numbers in Dáil Éireann. There was Micheal Martin doing his best given the grim hand of cards he has been dealt. So there was the usual stuff about structural reform that parties indulge in when the troops are taken out of battle – ie put in opposition. This makes good sense. It’s a smaller party, at least in terms of representation, but he has to give them something to do now that government no longer occupies their time.

In his opening speech, Mr Martin mentioned proposed radical changes to the way the party operates that will be put before its Árd Fheis in February.
This means a change to a one-member one-vote, subscription fees and a possible ending of the 85 year cumann structure in Dublin.
“The basic principle is that we must empower our members,” he said.

Good stuff. Some though would wish that he’s thought about empowering the citizens of the state in the past by perhaps trying to call a halt on the economic decisions that underpinned the crisis.

Anyhow, consider his thoughts on opposition:

During the speech, he referred to the party offering a strong and “constructive” opposition, that would support the Government when it believed its strategy was correct.
He contrasted that with the opposition being provided by Sinn Féin and the Technical Group, both of which he said were taking the route of total opposition.
“They will oppose every measure which might be unpopular pretending that we live in a world where there is an easy answer to every problem.
“This approach lets the government off the hook because it ignores reality and lets policies through without proper scrutiny. “They may well get short-term hits in, but it the long-term it will lead them nowhere.”

Fascinating to see how Micheál Martin acknowledged his rivals, Sinn Féin and the Technical Group, at the Fianna Fáil think-in. It would once have been unthinkable that FF would give any political space at all to others in this way. Of course, the whole thing was in a sense unthinkable. Here was an FF leader having to talk from a position of opposition, and not simply of opposition, but an opposition where it was [barely] the largest component.

But here’s the thing.

Actually in nominal terms it no longer is the largest component now that Denis Naughten is the 20th Independent in the Dáil which makes the number of Independents 20 to Fianna Fáil’s 19.

Sure, Naughten hasn’t joined the Technical Group, and presumably never will – indeed there may be an issue as regards whether he could because if I recall correctly TDs retain officially their party affiliation, whether they go rogue or not, for the lifetime of an individual Dáil. So he exists in that curious limbo that Grealish, Healy-Rae and Lowry occupy.

But all of this is of more than simply academic interest. The controversy over the Norris nomination is very important, even if from the reports I’m hearing there’s no end of media and other boosting of it going on – and I say that as someone who wants him in the race. It’s an opportunity that the Independents – various – are using to boost their own profile. They too can read the polls and see that even now, even in the face of FG dominance (or perhaps because of), their poll ratings – undifferentiated and all as they are – are higher than they were at the election. And they want to take advantage of that in precisely the same way that SF has with their cleverly constructed run at the Presidency – publicity, profile building, and the chance, perhaps just a slim one, perhaps much more, that they’ll be seen to back a winner.

Yesterday I even heard a report of something approaching buyers remorse on the part of one who had publicly stated support for another candidate and was now wondering should they try to move back towards the Norris camp.

Everyone loves a winner.

So, 20 Independents and 19 Fianna Fáil TDs.

How times have changed.

And more than likely more to come.

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Meanwhile it pains me to point to John Waters latest missive wherein he has decided to brand those supporting Norris and McGuinness as representative of a ‘Monster Raving Loony factor’ and to put forward a thesis that somehow the Irish people were overwhelmingly ‘conservative’ until the events of recent years. Whereas now apparently:

The failures of recent years, however, have effected a sudden and massive change in the electorate. Now, most people are, if not outrightly left-wing, certainly increasingly disposed to radical, even anarchistic ideas. In some respects this is a backlash against the hubris and grandiosity now seen as having led us towards the abyss.

But it might be truer and simpler to observe that many Irish people have lately become politically reckless, perhaps even a little mad.

And:

Up until the past three years or so, while the centre of Irish politics held more or less as it had for the previous 80 years, Martin McGuinness would have been a peripheral candidate. Now he is likely to be the front- runner. This remarkable spectacle, together with the evidence of substantial and perhaps growing support for David Norris, reflects fundamental changes in the culture governing Irish politics.

And there’s more:

As recently as 20 years ago, Sinn Féin’s policy portfolio was a strange mixture of militarism, social conservatism and economic naivety. It wasn’t until after the ceasefires that Sinn Féin started to review its policy outlooks to the extent of becoming what it now is, a radical left-wing party under all headings, with policies that are mainly off-the-peg imports from other cultures.

This pattern tracks also something of the journey of a majority of Irish people, who now find themselves having far more in common with Sinn Féin than they ever dreamed possible.

And Waters allows his disdain at the prospects ahead to come through loud and clear:

The appeal of both candidates resides in their potential to enable voters make “anti-establishment” statements. Irish political culture is coming to be dominated by an up-until-recently undetectable Monster Raving Loony factor, whereby voters driven to the point of madness are seeking some way of expressing contempt for the political process and the higher offices of State. Electing either a gay candidate or a former terrorist would achieve these objectives with knobs on.

Imagine that… a gay candidate elected to the Presidency! How shocking. And a former terrorist – President of Ireland? Unthinkable! Unprecedented! That’s some insight into the horizon lines of the man, and his grasp of Irish history in the 20th century.

Anyhow he conveniently ignores the election of… er… Mary Robinson some twenty years ago. And the general success of that avowedly liberal and slightly leftist Presidency, to the degree that at the subsequent election all bar one of the candidates were presented in not dissimilar terms [albeit Dana being the standard bearer of the socially conservative right].

But to be honest it’s also remarkable because of how dismissive it is of the Irish electorate. As I’ve noted previously this week both McGuinness and Norris are – from a leftist perspective – fundamentally flawed, both embodying both radical and conservative impulses extant in this polity across decades [entertaining how Waters doesn't quite see the contradiction in his point and his then assertion that 'Sinn Féin will by then have fundamentally altered its colourings and meanings and arrived at the epicentre of Irish political life – in effect, the new Fianna Fáil'].

There’s nothing unreasonable, or loony, about the fact that Norris and McGuinness are ahead in polls – however dubious said polls. Neither of the candidates are intrinsically as radical as Waters suggests. And there’s nothing unreasonable about the electorate seeing it that way either.

What you want to say? Open Thread, 22nd September 2011 September 22, 2011

Once more following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.