The Cedar Lounge Revolution

More on the Presidential Campaign… September 21, 2011

I was thinking today how odd it is that the only two potential candidates at the Presidential Election that I have much sympathy for are in some respects profoundly different, so much so that one is supported by Eoghan Harris and the other – well – clearly isn’t. But there’s no end of danger in positioning ones political choices in relation to where Harris stands, given that he’s spent a lifetime stepping hither and yon, so that in itself isn’t a reason to support or not support someone.

I guess, from my perspective David Norris and Martin McGuinness are – for different reasons – the two most clearly oppositional candidates even if they are fundamentally flawed in respect of that opposition. In fact in that respect they’re curiously alike. Norris has with considerable personal courage spent a lifetime championing rights in a society that wasn’t merely dismissive of those rights but often actively hostile on both the personal and political level. Yet Norris is also locked by virtue of background and position into an Irish establishment and his oppositional aspects aren’t likely to ruffle that establishment overly much, particularly these days.

McGuinness similarly has been oppositional in the sense that he represents a republican and social radical [to varying degrees] impulse which has waxed and waned throughout the society across the 20th century and before and used various vehicles to express itself. But this is an oppositional aspect which has been been focused on the national rather than class, albeit it has often operated as a proxy for class depending on context. The disparity between SF in the North and South is only the most notable current manifestation of this.

So both are flawed and for many the choice they offer from the rest, Davis, Gallagher, Higgins and Mitchell, is no choice at all. though I’ve never seen an election I didn’t want to vote in. No doubt there will be further arguments around these issues in the weeks ahead.

One presumes that McGuinness won’t let the Joe Duffy radio show ‘flash vote’ go to his head, but it might indicate that he’ll do better than expected overall.

And meanwhile the chances of Norris being on the ballot paper recede and this, I think, is a pity. I just can’t work out how he could get the numbers now.

The Irish Times puts it this way:

Last night Mr Norris had the backing of 11 Oireachtas members but was unable to get public commitments from the remaining 16 Independents.

Except he doesn’t really.

Of the 19 Independent TD’s votes in play [excluding Denis Naughten, latterly of FG] four are already taken by McGuinness – those being McGrath, Ming, JHR and Fleming. Mattie McGrath, somewhat quixotically, is supporting Dana – which is a bit like doing something of no import simply to look as if something is being done. That leaves 14. We can, I think it is fair to say, assume neither Noel Grealish or Michael Lowry are hugely keen to support Norris. That leaves 12. So far of those 12, as the Irish Times notes:

Eight TDs are committed to supporting Mr Norris’s nomination. They are: Joe Higgins, Clare Daly, Richard Boyd Barrett and Joan Collins from the United Left Alliance, along with Catherine Murphy, Stephen Donnelly, Mick Wallace and Maureen O’Sullivan.

Some interesting omissions there. Where is the other ULA TD? What about Shane Ross? John Halligan? Thomas Pringle?
Anyhow, that means he’s dependent upon the Seanad. There are two groups of Independents in the Seanad, one based around the University elections, of five and one around the Taoiseach’s nominees of 6. Of that 11 he so far….

…can also rely on four nominations from the Seanad with NUI Senators John Crown and Seán Barrett from Trinity College, and Senator Katherine Zappone adding to his own vote.

If he only was supported by the 8 TDs and 4 Senators he currently has then he can’t do it, or rather he’d need to get all the other Senators on his side. And it seems to me, given the complexion of the two groups it’s almost impossible that he might, for the sake of example, get Ronan Mullen to support him, Feargal Quinn, or one or two of the more clearly FG inclined Independent Senators – at least in respect of the latter at this stage.

Perhaps they’ll all surprise us. Perhaps not. Perhaps it’s unkind to suggest that Finian McGrath found nominating McGuinness a means of slicing through this particular Gordian knot.

Perhaps he’ll pull four councils out of the bag, and there’s some rumblings to that effect, but that’s a long shot. Then again, this has already been a remarkable contest and highly unpredictable.

Meanwhile rumor has it that Dana is going to withdraw from the race. Shortest candidacy on record in a Presidential contest? We’ll see.

The latest poll from the Sunday Independent… September 21, 2011

I guess I’d better write about the latest Millward Brown Landsdowne poll which appeared in the Sunday Independent at the weekend. Why? Because it’s there…

It’s an interesting poll, not least because it differs significantly from the last poll, run earlier in the Summer, but also because it allows the Sunday Independent to present a mad thesis as to how Fianna Fáil might recover lost ground… Here are the headline figures.

The MBL poll has Fine Gael on 40 per cent [up four since the General Election], Labour on 20 [up 1], Sinn Féin on 11 [up 2], Fianna Fáil on 10 [down 7], Independents and ULA collectively [sheesh!] – on 17, up 2, the Green Party [sheesh squared!] on 2 per cent.

As the Irish Times noted:

When the poll numbers are broken down by region, they make for even more alarming reading for Fianna Fail as they show that its support in Dublin has all but collapsed.
Just 5 per cent of people in the capital now say they support the party, a number which indicates that it has no chance of retaining its solitary capital seat in the Dublin West by-election which has been caused by the death of Brian Lenihan earlier this year.

This is dreadful news for Fianna Fáil. At this rate their chances of a slight return, let alone a resurgence are minimal. As was noted elsewhere, even a massive swing to them might only garner a doubling of their votes, from 19 to… well… an hardly stupendous 40 or so. And that indicates that for a true return they’d have to do significantly better again. Given the volatility of the past four years that’s not absolutely beyond question, but it’s not very likely.

The figures for Dublin are crucial. 5 per cent is a figure that pushes them down to the bottom of the voting table. On this evidence they have little or no chance of retaking more than an handful of seats in the capital if even. Adrian Kavanagh on political reform.ie argues that on his modeling there won’t be a seat in the capital for them at the next election and worse, they could drop to four seats [hence Kavanagh's not necessarily tongue in cheek 'Taxi for Fianna Fáil' heading]. Whatever way one cuts it this is stunning stuff. We’ve never seen Fianna Fáil in such straits before.

Mind you what’s interesting about Kavanagh’s analysis is that he doesn’t necessarily gift Sinn Féin with a massive seat bonus due to this annihilation of FF. Indeed he only sees them gaining a couple of seats, in Cavan-Monaghan and Louth [where SF would hold 2 seats] and intriguingly he sees support increasing significantly for FG putting it within touching distance of a majority, for Labour and Others – up to 22 [from which could with little doubt be cobbled together a coalition with FG - Deputy Ross, your time has come!].

No room for the Green Party at the inn though.
Okay, all this is an extrapolation of the current poll and given that the likelihood of an election today or tomorrow is vanishingly small perhaps it is wiser to simply examine the broader dynamics rather than trying to predict outcomes when events both near and far will shape the context of any future election in predictable and unpredictable ways. Let’s not forget too that the announcement of a serious contender as SF candidate for the Presidency is liable to have an halo effect on that party’s opportunities – note for example the effect that the Pearse Doherty by-election win [and legal case directly before that] had on boosting the SF vote up to the mid-teens in and across the Christmas period, and although that fell back to 9 per cent or so its residual value in reworking aspects of the SF image is unquestionable.

And as with SF so with all other parties to some degree.
Fine Gael and Labour are about to enter a zone of withering political fire as they first announce their plans for the next three years, and secondly have to start implementing those plans. With their fingerprints more prominently over them the space to duck away from responsibility will become increasingly smaller.

The Independents and ULA may be picking up steam simply because they’re the only other alternative apart from Sinn Féin to the current orthodoxy. That’s self-evident, but what may be slightly less so is that as the FF vote diminishes yet further it is splitting across the spectrum but with the SF and the INDS/ULA gaining slightly less cumulatively than FG and Labour [4 per cent as against 5 per cent]. That shouldn’t be a surprise. The FF vote was fairly conservative to begin with, that it would nudge up against FG makes sense – though it yet again indicates the catastrophic decline of FF.

The reasonable point was made recently that there’s insufficient analysis of the ULA’s fortunes in all this, but it’s impossible to detach them from the Independents. If I were to hazard a guess I’d suggest that the activism of the ULA on the ground in some parts across the Summer has done them little harm, though Kavanagh doesn’t see them holding Dun Laoghaire – which seems, unfortunately, sensible given that the Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically there. But then again, who knows? Four and a half years is a long time and the electoral context, as well as the math may change there as well.

Anyhow, all of this is great craic. No great flux, but a dynamic of Fianna Fáil decline that continues apace, and less happily for us on the left, a pattern of FG consolidation. But again, let’s wait and see.
But what of that ‘mad thesis’ the Sunday Independent presents us with?

A detailed analysis of the poll, however, points to the possible salvation of Fianna Fail should the party decide to facilitate the clamour for Senator David Norris to re-enter the presidential election.

Do go on…

Support for a Norris comeback is particularly strong in Dublin and Leinster and among age groups and social classes where Fianna Fail has haemorrhaged most of its support in recent years.

But whenever there is a problem with polls the Sunday Independent has an answer. It’s time, it’s always time, to call Quantum Research.

The extent to which the public want Fianna Fail to facilitate the nomination of Mr Norris is even more evidentially illustrated in a second opinion poll which was commissioned as a result of the announcement that Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein is to contest the presidential election.

A Sunday Independent/ Quantum Research telephone poll specifically asked whether Fianna Fail should facilitate the nomination of Mr Norris; the answer was a resounding yes.

You betcha!

How much of an yes?

Taken yesterday, after The Late Late Show and following the announcement that Mr McGuinness is to contest the election, a massive 59 per cent said Fianna Fail should facilitate Mr Norris. That poll also indicates that Mr McGuinness will primarily take support from Michael D Higgins of Labour.

And unfortunately the findings of the two polls appear to be mixed and matched throughout the piece so I’m leery about any analysis drawn from the Presidential campaign data. Though even the Independent can’t quite ignore that…

The subsequent, although less scientific, Sunday Independent/ Quantum Research poll indicates that the candidacy of Mr McGuinness has thrown open the contest: it seems he will primarily take support from Michael D Higgins of Labour.

Bearing in mind that polling took place after The Late Late Show, the findings, excluding Don’t Knows, were: David Norris (34pc); Michael D Higgins (18pc); Martin McGuinness (17pc); Mary Davis (12pc); Gay Mitchell (11pc); Sean Gallagher (8pc).

Yes, ‘less scientific’.

Indeed.

This may seem almost pointless to say, but strength amongst those groups and ‘social classes’ doesn’t necessarily mean that these are erstwhile FF voters or that they will swing behind Norris. The SI seems curiously unaware of the more conservative profile of FF voters across the years, a social conservatism that makes them unlikely champions or supporters of a Norris candidacy. I’d also suspect that the McGuinness candidacy will hoover up support from many of those former FF voters [whatever 'Quantum's' finding about 'taking support from Michael D Higgins of Labour'].
Moreover if they are not former FF voters but instead those of other parties why should they want to switch when they already have candidates of their own parties in the field, whether in the form of Mitchell or Higgins.

And how any of this genuinely represents a lifeline back for Fianna Fáil escapes me unless the thinking is that a grateful electorate will forget the last four years, and the preceding one, and shed away from Labour, FG, SF and IND/ULA to FF simply because it supports a Norris nomination.

They must be mad.

And not very good at reading an FF party which only two days later decided not to support any candidacy.

********

On a slight tangent… I think I know what Eamon O Cuiv means when he says the following, but I’m not quite sure it comes out the way he intended:

On TV3 tomorrow, meanwhile, Mr O Cuiv also asks: “Is Fianna Fail so damaged by the label of corruption, by the label of big business, builders and bankers — a lot of which has nothing to do with the membership of the Fianna Fail I know — that it is a really seriously damaged brand and… you know, the thought does enter my mind – are we going to be forever damaged by the actions of the few? If that were so, maybe we have to look at a new way forward for the very, very same ideals.”