Bits and Pieces… Welfare fraud and other matters…

Let us start with unemployment. Happy days down the Irish Times where it was reported last week that:

[Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton ] said 16,920 people made anonymous reports of suspected welfare fraud last year, up from 6,429 in 2009 and 12,640 in 2010. In 2005, just 621 anonymous reports were received, indicating that the tolerance for breaches of social welfare payment rules has dropped, perhaps due to the recession.
Some 7,430 reports made to officials in 2011 were about people who, the informants claimed, were receiving unemployment benefit while continuing to work.

From which Mary Minihan in the Irish Times declared: ‘the extent of the cultural shift in reporting suspected welfare fraud will be revealed today when Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton gives a breakdown of the record 17,000 anonymous tip-offs made to the authorities last year’.

Perhaps, though then how to account for the following?

More than 2,000 other tip-offs relating to suspicions about concurrent working and claiming were received last year: the figure was 5,350 in 2010.

That cultural shift going into reverse there?

Or what about the, perhaps, small point that in 2005 there was 4.2 per cent unemployment as against 14.5 per cent unemployment now. I’m not saying there’s no increase in figures, just that terming this a ‘culture shift’ may be overdoing it as a description of what is going on.

More useful is the following:

Criminal prosecutions may be taken against persons who defraud the social welfare payments system and employers who fail to carry out their statutory obligations.

In cases where serious or protracted social welfare fraud has occurred, a file is either referred to the Chief State Solicitor’s Office or Director of Public Prosecution for criminal prosecution.

Last year, 270 cases were referred for possible prosecution under the Social Welfare Act. The department sent 174 cases to An Garda for prosecution under the Criminal Justice Act.

So. 16,920 reports, less than 500 possible prosecutions. Interesting. As is the following: Fraud and error rates tend to range from 1 per cent in cases involving the State contributory pension to 3.1 per cent with the Jobseeker’s Allowance.

That seems low to me.

Meanwhile more from our somewhat social democratic Minister for Social Protection, Joan Burton.

She said a programme was being developed under which people on the Live Register would be called for a group interview and then an individual interview to help match claimants to positions.
“They could be dropped off the register completely if they fail to show up at the interviews or they could have their payment cut if they fail to engage properly to the tune of about €44,” she said.
Relationships between Fás and employers had been “variable” in the past, but she wanted to see this change. “We’re ready to work with the individuals to ensure that people on the Live Register, relevant people, have a good opportunity of getting those jobs. That’s the critical thing,” Ms Burton said.

Those jobs? Which jobs? Remember that 14.5 per cent unemployment?

Meanwhile:

“NO GOVERNMENT can directly create jobs, but they can directly remove the barriers to job creation.” These were the words of Taoiseach Enda Kenny as he launched the action plan for jobs yesterday.
His words are telling. Despite the rhetoric and headlines about 100,000 jobs, no new jobs were actually created yesterday. Instead we were presented with 270 measures designed to encourage and incentivise job creation and enterprise.
At a time when austerity and cutbacks seem to be the economic policy of choice across the euro zone, any move by the State to encourage business is positive.

The problem is it’s a nonsense.

He should have read this piece from Michael Taft from last May where he describes the view expressed by Kenny [albeit at that time expressed by Micheal Martin] as ‘straight from the kindergarten school of economics. Governments create jobs all the time’. And he goes on to give seven examples of where this is the case.

Indeed the IT article admits of this…

After all, the ongoing downsizing of the public sector means the private sector will be the only source of job creation over the next few years.

But that’s not the same as saying that no government can create jobs…

And last… for those interested in the minutia of US politics here’s a little quiz to see where you sit on the US political spectrum in relation to the political positions of US Democrats or Republican legislators, or rather who you sit with [s;ight caveat, the political scientist who devised it is of the right, but the methodology doesn't seem suspect]. Here’s my result.

Here’s your PQ:  87.9
Politicians with similar PQs are:

Joe Biden (D-Del., 1973-2008) PQ=80.5
Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y., 2001-06) PQ=87.6
Barack Obama (D-Ill., 2005-06) PQ=87.7
Ted Kennedy (D-Mass., 1963-2007) PQ=89.2
Robert Kennedy (D-N.Y., 1965-67) PQ=96.5