The new Boundaries put to the 2011 General Election July 6, 2012
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.trackback
Adrian Kavanagh has taken the time to look at last years General Election Results and The Constituency Commission Report to provide estimated seat levels had the election been fought on the new boundaries.
Estimated seats
FG 74
LB 34
FF 22
SF 12
ULA 5
IND 11
Can’t get into that full analysis from where I am now.
However, given that there’s a good few Dublin Central constituents commenting on here, what are the thoughts on DC?
On the face of it, Donohoe of FG has lost a good few votes in Drumcondra/Glasnevin – wards that have gone to Dublin Nth West.
So it’ll be some battle for 3 seats between the current sitting 4 – Donohoe, McDonald, O’Sullivan and Costello.
Prediction: Costello to lose out as the tide goes out for Labour.
I’d imagine Costello will be one of a number of Labour TDs to retire at the next election. Hes 67 now and should the government last its full term he’ll be over 70.
Think it also means curtains for Mary Fitz as well really doesnt it?
Joe Costello might retire but then Emer Costello might be the candidate!
Yep, those streets that have gone to Dublin North West would have yielded a good few votes for Mary Fitz. She’ll have a difficult decision to make on where to stand.
I think the EU pays more.
Only if you keep your seat. Dublin will be a dog fight.
If she loses in the Euros then that leaves her without even a council seat from which to mount a challenge. Not sure one of the Labour councillors in the constituency could be persuaded to stand aside to let her be co-opted on to DCC?
Joes impending retirement especially if Emer loses the Euro seat) could weaken the dynasty and encourage young pretenders to mount a challenge for the nomination? (are there any young pretenders still there? wasn’t potential young pretender O’Riordain exiled to DNC?)
There are a couple of councillors. Lisa Clancy is one. Can’t remember the other. But Labour will probably have to wait in DC and some new pretender would have to put in a lot of work to challenge for the seat some time in the future.
It is very likely Paschal Donohoe will leave Dublin Central – in addition to losing voters to Dublin North-West, he also loses support to Dublin West in the Navan Road Area. The Fine Gael TD will probably seek a move to Dublin North -West, while Mary Fitzpatruick is more likely to test the waters in Dublin West.
Can the numerous factions on the “left of the left” get their act together in this constituency and mount a united campaign in the next general election? Last time out this did not happen.
It would be good if they did. There’s a lot of potential in it.
Interesting idea.
Who would be best placed?
WP? (would they be able to rally the ULA?)
Would Christy Burke join in?
Who would be the likely loser? (SF or O’Sullivan?) Or are we talking O’Sullivan, SF and further left TDs? (that would be a sight to behold).
Is there a lot of potential? Cllr Cieran Perry in Cabra would be the obvious standard bearer (he has the votes). But I don’t think a combination of WP, SP and SWP support would add much. Christy Burke? Is he left of left? I’m afraid the “likely loser” would be the “left of left” candidate.