That Latest Poll… The Comeback starting? October 17, 2012
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.trackback
The Comeback is on… maybe…
Irish Times MRBI/Ipsos poll
FG 31% -1
FF 21% +4
Sinn Fein 20% -4
Others 16% -1
Lab 12% +2
Satisfaction with the government down to 21%.
Fianna Fail gaining is no suprise, having lent other parties their vote…. they find out that there’s not much difference at all.
The last Irish Times poll was during the Stability treaty Referendum campaign, where Sinn Fein were fairly prominent, so that may explain the drop.
More on the poll later in the week.
Although its too early to tell its not impossible after the local elections that a Republican coalition (ie a Sinn Fein & Fianna Fail one with right-wing independents) could happen, leaving the disunited Left Alliance (People Before Profit, SP vs SWP turf war & Daly) & Seamus Healyites to keep fighting campaigns against the Home & Water Taxes
You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who describes FF or FF mk2 as republican. Nationalist would be closer, but their raison d’etre is holding the office of Taoiseach – prestige and privilege. It’d be like someone trying to insinuate the Irish Labour Party were of the left.
The Left’s strategy isn’t to crown itself Taoiseach this or minister that to administer Capitalism or austerity. It’s to mobilize people to fight against attacks from FF-PD-Greens yesterday, FG-Labour today and FF-SF tomorrow with the hope of one day getting out of getting out from under the thumbs of the establishment.
Take a bow James Reilly
Its still margin of error stuff – any claim of a shift back to FF would be valid if it were confirmed in another poll or two.
Any guesses on the SF drop?
The SF drop is down from a pretty spectacular high during the Referendum campaign. No shinner would be unhappy with 20pc.
Certainly. But where did those votes go? What were those voters thinking when they switched their vote from SF to FF or some other party?
They’re not votes, they’re preferences given to a polling company calling randomly when you’re putting on the dinner, just in from work, etc. etc. It is, as JRG points out above, still margin of error stuff. However, the rehabilitation of FF, a medium term aim for the Irish elite, needs good news every now and again and this poll provides precisely such good news.
“However, the rehabilitation of FF, a medium term aim for the Irish elite, needs good news every now and again and this poll provides precisely such good news.”
Fair angle
I was polled by Red C yesterday, so we may not have to wait very long for a follow-up.
There is a media based campaign to rehabilitate FF. It is working. While I think SF is house trained, many do not in the media and the bourgeoisie. Hence the need to make sure the other bourgeois party is kept in readiness if this lot go down. There are all sorts of coalition alternatives.My guess is that they will always try and keep an alternative in opposition in order to prevent a real left emerging. Mind you with the suicidal tendencies in ULA what are they worried about.
Not only that but many backroom FF operatives are being found safe bearths in the public sector while FF temporarily downsizes due to the finanical implications of losing so many seats. I see it with my own two eyes; scarcely believeable. I think FF will be back in government next time round, the tight parameters of political choice here have to be maintained. I disagree with your statement about the suicidal tendencies of the ULA. The problems there are attributable, for the most part, to Wallace who, to maintain the ‘suicidal’ theme, seems to have acted as a kind of suicide bomber driven into the ULA. I think as an electoral alliance it still has a lot to offer; as a party of the working class it still has a long way to go. When 5000 people, the majority of them workers, can demonstrate in support of a theiving billionaire in a small village in rural Ireland, while left wing protests in the capital city would be delighted with 5,000, there is a huge job of work for the left to try and turn some towards considering socialist solutions. If the ULA get a good crop of councillors (30+) at the next elections (difficult given the proposed changes to local government) that will be a step forward. The CAHWT is only going to grow when the property tax and water charges are re-introduced. While I remain pessimistic about any mass turn to the left, there is scope for a solid minority block of workers (ca. 20% of the population) who might be amenable, as the crisis unfolds, to socialist ideas or being part of movements where socialist organisations are prominent. SF are going to be found out pretty soon when they, for instance, have to implement the terms of the Fiscal Treaty. So, the space Left of SF will hopefully be where people start looking for answers. I may be deluded but, hopefully, I’m not.
Interesting analysis by Paddy Healy
Analysis of IPSOS/MRBI Poll October October 18, 2012-10-18
Poll Disastrous for Labour— Many seats of Labour councillors and TDs in danger
The poll published to-day,18/10/2012, in Irish Times is compared to the figures from a similar poll taken in May during the Fiscal Compact Referendum campaign
The poll is subject to a probable error of + or – 3%. This means that a change of less than 3% may not be real.
When people were asked who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow, the figures for party support – when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll were: Fine Gael, 31 per cent (down one point); Labour, 12 per cent (up two); Fianna Fáil, 21 per cent (up four points); Sinn Féin, 20 per cent (down four points); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); and Independents/Others, 14 per cent (down one point).
Don’t know/undecided 33% up 5 points
Satisfied with Government 21% down 6 points (this level of dissatisfaction is exceeded only by that of Fianna Fail before the last General election)
To understand the overall change in public opinion, it is necessary to compare these figures with the outcome of the last General Election
GENERAL Election Figures FG 36.1%, Lab 19.4%, FF 17.4% ,SF 9.9% ,Green 1.8%, Others 15.4%
To-days Poll compared to General Election Figures FG 31% down 5, FF 21% up 3.6,Labour 12% down 7.4, Sinn Fein 20% up 10.1, Green 2.0 up 0.2, Others 14% down 1.4
Most changes since the General Election are now greater than the probable error of 3%. This enables firmer conclusions to be drawn.
OTHERS
Particular caution is necessary in comparing the showing of “others” in an opinion poll as opposed to a General Election. There are many local and single issue candidates on the ballot paper in a General Election. The vast majority of these have no possibility of election but they inflate the figure for others in the overall national outcome. This is not a factor in opinion polls. The figure of 14% in to-days poll for “others” is in fact very high though down 1 since last May.
Collapse of Labour Support
Taking the probable error of 3% into account the figure for the Labour Party of 12% to-day and 10% last May are essentially the same. But there is a large real drop of 7.4% since the General Election. Such an outcome in a General election would lead to a loss of large numbers of Labour seats. The Labour Party share of the vote in the 2009 Local Elections was 14.2%. There are two austerity budgets before the next local elections. A further decline in the Labour vote following such budgets would endanger the seats of many Labour Councillors. It must be remembered that even a small decline in popular support can give rise to a large loss of seats particularly for parties below 20% of the vote. The strong showing of Sinn Féin and Others is a particular threat to Labour. According to Damiam Loscher of IPSOS/MRBI: “Interestingly, Labour now draws more support from the professional classes (17 per cent amongst ABs) than any other socio-economic group. It seems working-class voters have drifted in large numbers to Sinn Féin, outside Dublin in particular” (Irish Times Oct 18,2012).
The very high level of dissatisfaction with government is likely to result in severely reduced transfers to Labour from independents and smaller parties particularly in late counts.
Fianna Fáil Recovery?
Fianna Fáil recovery is greatly exaggerated by conservative commentators. The Fianna Fáil poll rating is now just 3.6% above its General Election performance (the probable error is 3%!!). For a party now in opposition this is a very modest improvement. Conservative commentators have a vested interest in promoting a conservative alternative to the government
Sinn Féin –Strong Showing
Despite the reduction of 4% since the May poll, Sinn Féin has doubled its vote since the General Election. Sinn Féin was the most prominent party in opposing the Fiscal Compact in May. The small reduction is not unexpected in this context. A party which exceeds 20% in a general election gets a major extra seat bonus. 20% is equivalent to the quota in a four seat constituency.
Fine Gael
Though the drop of 5% since the General Election is significant, the Fine Gael vote is holding up. It is probable that all the conservative forces in society are congregating around the main conservative party—big farmers, big business, wealthy self-employed professionals, large asset holders etc. I expect this to be confirmed when fine detail of the poll becomes available.
In general the poll shows continued tendency to political polarisation—Sinn Féin and the left at one pole and Fine Gael and the political right at the other.
Paddy Healy
The Red C poll is the one to watch on Sunday. This crowd only poll politically twice a year, and were out of sync with all others at other times.
Red C is the gold standard, see FF at 20% there and you can start to see a real comeback.
Brian Hayes will be delighted.
Poll Confirms that Labour is the Big Loser
The poll figures published to-day,18/10/2012, in Irish Times is being compared by the polling company to the figures from a similar poll taken in April during the Fiscal Compact Referendum campaign
As usual the poll is subject to a probable error of + or – 3% based on a sample of approximately 1000 persons polled.
Conclusions drawn from breakdowns by province or social class are much more unreliable. For example a typical sample of 300 is subject to a probable error of almost +or-6%.
In addition to the party scores the poll shows:
Don’t know/undecided 33% up 5 points.
Satisfied with Government 21% down 6 points (this level of dissatisfaction is exceeded only by that of Fianna Fail before the last General election)
These figures are as significant as the party scores.
To understand the overall change in public opinion, it is necessary to compare the poll figures with the outcome of the last General Election
GENERAL Election Figures FG 36.1%, Lab 19.4%, FF 17.4% ,SF 9.9% ,Green 1.8%, Others 15.4%
To-days Poll compared to General Election Figures : FG 31% down 5, FF 21% up 3.6,Labour 12% down 7.4, Sinn Fein 20% up 10.1, Green 2.0 up 0.2, Others 14% down 1.4
Most changes since the General Election are now greater than the probable error of 3%. This enables firmer conclusions to be drawn.
Drop in Labour Support
Even in the relatively prosperous late nineties the Labour Party suffered a large setback after being in coalition with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
This poll confirms the indication in the April poll that the setback will be even greater on this occasion.
Taking the probable error of 3% into account the figure for the Labour Party of 12% to-day and 10% last May are essentially the same. But there is a large real drop of 7.4% since the General Election. Such an outcome in a General election would lead to a loss of large numbers of Labour seats. The Labour Party share of the vote in the 2009 Local Elections was 14.2%. There are two austerity budgets before the next local elections. A further decline in the Labour vote following such budgets would endanger the seats of many Labour Councillors. It must be remembered that even a small decline in popular support can give rise to a large loss of seats particularly for parties below 20% of the vote. The strong showing of Sinn Féin and Others is a particular threat to Labour.
As pointed out above breakdowns of the poll by province (EU Constituency) or social class are subject to large probable errors. Nevertheless they are of some interest.
According to Damiam Loscher of IPSOS/MRBI: “Interestingly, Labour now draws more support from the professional classes (17 per cent amongst ABs) than any other socio-economic group. It seems working-class voters have drifted in large numbers to Sinn Féin, outside Dublin in particular” ( Damien Loscher of IPSOS/MRBI, Irish Times Oct 18,2012) and according to Stephen Collins in the same edition “The party(Labour) is still getting a very respectable 19 per cent in Dublin, which is easily its strongest region. The rest of Leinster comes next on 12 per cent, but the party’s vote in Munster is just 9 per cent while it is only 3 per cent in Connacht Ulster.” (Stephen Collins, Irish Times Oct 18,2012)
The 19% for Labour, however “respectable”, in Dublin is still well down on the General Election result.
If these regional indications turned out to be true, Labour would face a severe loss of seats in the next local and European elections particularly but not only in Munster. The Munster figure is approximately half the percentage of the vote secured by the Labour Party candidate in the European Election of 2009 which took place on the same day as the local elections.
The very high level of dissatisfaction with government is likely to result in severely reduced transfers to Labour from independents and smaller parties, particularly but not only, in late counts.
Fianna Fáil Recovery?
Fianna Fáil recovery is greatly exaggerated by conservative commentators. The Fianna Fáil poll rating is now just 3.6% above its General Election performance (the probable error is 3%!!). For a party now in opposition this is a very modest improvement. Conservative commentators have a vested interest in promoting a conservative alternative to the government. However, it is true as pointed out by Adrian Kavanagh, that a small increase in voting percentage would give Fianna Fáil a significant increase in seats won. But there is no indication from the poll that it will recover its past strength.
Sinn Féin –Strong Showing
Despite the reduction of 4% since the May poll, Sinn Féin has doubled its vote since the General Election. Sinn Féin was the most prominent party in opposing the Fiscal Compact in May. The small reduction is not unexpected in this context. A party which nears or exceeds 20% in a general election gets a major extra seat bonus. 20% is equivalent to the quota in a four seat constituency.
Stephen Collins points out: “The slide has been biggest in Dublin where it has dropped eight points(since April P.H.) and is now behind Labour and tied with Fianna Fáil(on 15% P.H.).The bedrock of the party’s support is still the poorest DE social category where it is on 31 per cent but Fianna Fáil is now making inroads among this group.”(Irish Times Oct 18,2012).
As Sinn Féin support is strongest in the poorest areas of the capital, it is probable that the 15% figure would be significantly increased by an actual election campaign which could garner extra votes from the “don’t know” or undecided category.
OTHERS
Particular caution is necessary in comparing the showing of “others” in an opinion poll as opposed to a General Election. There are many local and single issue candidates on the ballot paper in a General Election. The vast majority of these have no possibility of election but they inflate the figure for others in the overall national outcome. This is not a factor in opinion polls. The figure of 14% in to-days poll for “others” is in fact very high historically though down 1 since last April.
Fine Gael
Though the drop of 5% since the General Election is significant, the Fine Gael vote is holding up in general.
Again according to Stephen Collins to-day “Among the best-off AB voters and the middle-class C1 voters, Fine Gael is easily the biggest party.”
It is probable that all the conservative forces in society are congregating around the main conservative party—big farmers, big business, wealthy self-employed professionals, large asset holders etc.
In general the poll shows continued tendency to political polarisation—Sinn Féin and the left at one pole and Fine Gael and the political right at the other. This is usual in deep political and economic crises.
However, the wealthy have a clear leadership in Fine Gael though formations further to the right may yet emerge. But the poor and those on middle incomes have no effective and firm leadership. Sinn Féin has recently failed to veto Tory social welfare cuts at Stormont “because we are not interested in creating a crisis in the Executive”. Would Sinn Féin veto social welfare cuts if they were part of a coalition in Dublin?
Paddy Healy