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Latest Sunday Business Post Poll January 26, 2013

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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The Latest Sunday Business Post Red C poll results are out

Fine Gael 28%(n/c); (36% at 2011 GE)
Fianna Fail 21%(+1); (17.4% at 2011 GE)
Ind/Other 21%(n/c); (17.2%% at 2011 GE)
Sinn Fein 19%(+2) (9.9% at 2011 GE)
Labour 11%(-3) (19.4% at 2011 GE)

Not good for Labour at all , FF continue their upward slide and Sinn Fein support is back up again.

The poll also asked ‘Is country on right track?’
Yes 44%
No 56%

More on this later in the week.

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1. CL - January 26, 2013

This might be significant as it shows, I think for the first time, that the Sinn Fail/Fianna Fein nationalist/populist faction at 40% has edged ahead of the regressive F.G/Labour coalition at 39%.

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2. ivorthorne - January 26, 2013

So Labour look set to return as the 4th party after the election.

The leadership don’t seem particularly bothered. If they suffered the disaster these figures suggest is inevitable, would they return to government with FG again if the numbers added up?

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Tomboktu - January 26, 2013

So Labour look set to return as the 4th party after the election.

The leadership don’t seem particularly bothered.

Of course, that is because the Labour leadership is retiring at the next election.

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3. Clive Sullish - January 26, 2013

@CL: ‘So Labour look set to return as the 4th party after the election’

And which party will be 5th? Not the ULA, it seems:

http://www.socialistparty.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1123-the-ula-the-fight-against-austerity-a-building-a-new-party-of-the-working-class

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TheOtherRiverR(h)ine - January 27, 2013

The XPDs :)

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ivorthorne - January 29, 2013

Dear God that’s a depressing concept! Mind DOB will try his best!

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4. PaddyM - January 27, 2013

The B&A poll in the Sunday Times, for what it’s worth, shows FF on 24% to FG’s 26% (and ahead of FG 19% to 17% before don’t knows are reallocated based on predicted behaviour).

FG’s expectations of a long reign as undisputed largest party, able to stay in power forever by judicious switching of mugs junior coalition partners, are looking rather battered.

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PaddyM - January 27, 2013

“mugs” was intended to be in strikethrough above….

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5. Paddy Healy - January 27, 2013

Extent of electoral collapse of Labour
The table below contains the percentages achieved by the parties in 3 Red C polls and the figures from the last general election.
Oct 2010 Gen EL 2011 Jan 10 2013 Jan 26 2013
FG 32 36 29 28
FF 18 17.4 21 21
SF 9 9.9 16 19
Lab27 19.4 13 11
GR 4 1 .8 3 3
Oth 10 15.4 18 18
Based on my experience of tallying votes in several local and general election counts, I wish to make a few comments. Firstly, it is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of a general election if held next week based on the most recent opinion poll on a systematic or mathematical basis. This is because all such predictions rely on models derived from the outcomes of previous elections. However when an earthquake takes place as exemplified by the collapse of the FF vote from circa 40% to 17% as in the 2011 general election and the Labour Party decline from c 20% in the 2011 election to 11% in the current Red C (Sunday Business Post) and Behaviour and Attitudes poll (Sunday Times) the relevance of existing models is highly dubious. The situation is further confused by the proportional representation system.
When the Labour party vote declined to 10.4% in the 1997 GE following the Spring/Bruton/De Rossa government , it retained 17 of 33 seats. I believe that if Labour polled 11% in a general election to-day that it would retain far less seats. Traditionally, many Labour candidates were elected on transfers from independents and minor parties (in addition to benefitting from the surplus of coalition partner Fine Gael). The current poll indicates that Sinn Fein will be above the Labour Party on first counts in a large number of constituencies. Sinn Fein transfers will be unavailable in far more constituencies than was the case in the 2011 General Election. The decline in the Fine Gael vote will ensure that surpluses transferring to the Labour Party will also be reduced.
The size of the vote for “others” in recent polls is remarkable. Comparison with the vote for “others” in the 2011 general election could mislead. The 15.4% gained by others (excluding the Greens) in the 2011 general election is inflated by the presence of local and single issue candidates whose votes scatter widely on transfer. The vote for “others” in opinion polls outside of election time is based on support for known councillors, TDs and personalities. In my view the appropriate comparison is with the October 2010 Red C poll which showed others excluding the Greens at 10%. It should be noted that the Fianna Fail vote in that poll had already declined to 18%. The figure of 18% for others in the current poll is a very large increase on the October 2010 figure. This means that transfers from minor parties and independents to the Labour Party will be far fewer than heretofore because many more of these will be ahead of the Labour Party candidate on the first count. This means that many more independents will be elected in the next election. In many cases Labour Party transfers will help elect the independent candidate in place of the reverse process which was the norm in previous elections.
It should also be noted that the current Red C poll was taken up to last Wednesday . A significant fraction of the electorate may have yet to experience the effects of the budget in pay packets, electricity bills, prescription charges etc.
I will be very surprised if the Labour Party wins much more than 10 seats in the next general election. That would mean a loss of two thirds of existing Labour seats.
Paddy Healy

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6. irishelectionliterature - January 28, 2013
7. irishelectionliterature - January 28, 2013
8. Polls, Politics And Conspiracy Theories | An Sionnach Fionn - January 28, 2013

[...] From the latest Sunday Business Post Red-C survey: [...]

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9. Labour at the next election ……10 seats? « The Cedar Lounge Revolution - February 13, 2013

[...] probably a few years away from an election but ….. with Labour now sliding in the polls , Paddy Healy made an interesting Comment on the recent Sunday Business Post Red C poll [...]

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