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Irish Times Poll -FF The Biggest Party February 8, 2013

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Tomorrows Irish Times carries an Ipsos MRBI poll.

The results (the last poll was in October)….
Fine Gael, 25 per cent (down six points);
Labour, 10 per cent (down two points);
Fianna Fáil, 26 per cent (up five points);
Sinn Féin, 18 per cent (down two points);
Green Party, 1 per cent (down one point); and Independents/Others, 20 per cent (up six points).

However

The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week before the landmark deal on the promissory notes.

So it tells us nothing about the public reaction to the deal.

Staggering all the same to think of Fianna Fail being the most popular party again after all their destruction in government.
Labour drop again and Fine Gael drop six points from the last poll in October.

When a poll does come out taken after the deal it will be interesting to see a few things. Will FG and Labour gain much, which will gain more and of course who will they gain from.
Presumably it will push Fianna Fail back down again in the polls. I think its a fortnight before another Red C Business Post poll but I suspect somewhere else may publish a poll in the meantime.

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1. ivorthorne - February 8, 2013

What is wrong with you people?

WorldbyStorm - February 8, 2013

Didn’t expect this quite this soon. Interesting if it ‘regularises’ a bit after promissory note etc. But wow.

2. tomasoflatharta - February 8, 2013

Part of a trend now – Adrian Kavanagh will do his usual excellent analysis on politicalreform.ie – the FG/LP coalition is in meltdown, continuing on its self-destructive road to Cowen-Gormley territory.

I doubt if the events this week will give any boost to the government parties – let us wait and see.

Jim Monaghan - February 9, 2013

And the media and the self destructive left have rehabilitated FF

3. ejh - February 8, 2013

I thought that said FFS, and perhaps it should have

4. CL - February 8, 2013

Populist/nationalist, F.F./S.F., 44%

Right-wing coalition, F.G./Labour, 35%

Bigger right-wing prospective coalition, F.G./F.F. 51%

Blather - February 8, 2013

BUT, FG + FF = 51%. That has to be the lowest ever. GE 11 had them on over 53% combined.

Blather - February 8, 2013

Actually, I stand corrected. There were a few polls back in the heyday of “Gilmore for Taoiseach” that had their combined total under 50%.

Jack Jameson - February 8, 2013

But might the FG/FF axis be consolidated by a chunk of conservative ‘Others/Independents’?

5. shea - February 8, 2013

this was expected though wasn’t it. interesting thing will be if they keep climbing. mary o rourke said something around the time of the last election, think it was before it, that you you would have about 4 or 5 political parties on 20% each or there abouts with parties making small bursts forward or falling behind for awhile. taught it was an interesting idea. the opinion polls began falling in line with her theory after the election, interesting to see if that phase is at an end or will FF hit a ceiling and yoyo back like SF seem to be doing the other side of 20% and the independents both sides of it.

6. Blather - February 8, 2013

Pretty soon “Others” will be in the lead…

shea - February 8, 2013

agreed. what does that mean though. what type of independents or others. stephen donnolly probably appeals to people on a different level than say claire daly or ming flanagan to shane ross. if each personality is tendency then how will that work out when each candidate is only standing in a single constituency, how will that work out and that could be a decider, if there is no shane ross for 1 in 5 voters standing in your area where are the second preferences going. or is it a case of just being independent will anyone using that label at the next election have an advantage.

7. doctorfive - February 8, 2013

RedC in two weeks

doctorfive - February 8, 2013

….not likely to yield better news

8. sammymcnally - February 9, 2013

re. “Staggering all the same to think of Fianna Fail being the most popular party again after all their destruction in government.”

I think you could fairly have added – “and have arguably the worst track record of corruption of any political party in Western Europe post WW2.”

..this is a terrible indictment of the Plain People of Ireland.

ejh - February 9, 2013

and have arguably the worst track record of corruption of any political party in Western Europe post WW2

There’s some parties in Spain, Italy and Greece could give them a run for their ill-gotten money

9. 6to5against - February 9, 2013

Central to this is the fact that FG and Lab have spent two years denigrating FF while simultaneously validating them. They have not only taken on FF policy but they have done so with some gusto and constantly argued that austerity, as proposed by FF is the only mature policy.
So obviously FF was mature first.
FF should be sending thankyou cards to Enda and Eamon.

WorldbyStorm - February 9, 2013

+1. Hit the nail on the head. And it’s always entertaining to see Kenny et al blaming FF for the state the place is in while taking precisely the same measures to ‘solve’ the problem and conveniently forgetting election 2007 and hostages to fortune like the LPs tax plans.

Ed - February 9, 2013

Aye, +1. Every time a Labour / FG member or spokesman says ‘we have no alternative, this is the only way’, it’s a belated vindication for FF.

doctorfive - February 9, 2013

1am Thursday morning the Government one after another were love bombing of Fianna Fáil across the chamber. In the heat of what was going it said all anyone needed to know about the three of them….. and the ‘inherited’ shite. The absolute uncritical, often fawning comments Michael McGrath gets is more of it. Shades of Enda where a ‘nice’, safe pair of hands will do. He has yet to land punch, let alone challenge Noonan and that is exactly what he lauded for. This the same press corps that praised Noonan for “staying out of the news” on Vincent Browne before in December. Between Dublinopinion and Namawinelake we had two or three Noonan stories a week..

Was an interesting comment on I think Pat Kenny today, where someone said the EBC were as good as told if we go you will be dealing with Sinn Féin after us. Obviously in relation to Gilmore’s “catastrophic” comment during the week. Go back to Blair Horan’s remark about “socialists in trade unions”

10. Joe - February 9, 2013

What is wrong with you people? Green Party 1%. :)

11. Jolly Red Giant - February 9, 2013

The establishment have been going out of their way to rehabilitate FF – they need a second eleven in case support for FG/LP completely collapses and it is much easier to rebuild FF’s profile than try and build a new neo-liberal party from scratch.

A lot of this increase is FF votes that went to FG and have gone back. The problem for FF (and by extension the ruling class) is that FF are and will continue to be toxic to transfers. Even with 26% (and I doubt it would be replicated in an actual election) FF would be doing exceptionally well to break 30 seats.

12. sammymcnally - February 9, 2013

The only realistic alternative to the deal is default – are any political parties actually advocating that?

Those that are not advocating default are simply blustering and party politiking.

13. Ciaran - February 9, 2013

Good God.

Well, a Simpsons quote is appropriate here:

“Give us Hell, Quimby!”

14. CL - February 9, 2013

The return of the Gothic,-a countryside littered with ghost estates, a zombie bank killed at the midnight hour, and the shade of Martin Corry rising from the mist…

15. Another Poll – Fianna Fáil Voters Abandon The Fine Gael Fold | An Sionnach Fionn - February 9, 2013

[...] C / Business Post poll is some two weeks away, as of now). With those things noted it is clear that recent polling indicates an upward trend in Fianna Fáil’s support amongst the electorate with a corresponding fall in that of Fine Gael and the Labour [...]

16. irishelectionliterature - February 9, 2013

Had a read of the poll details in todays paper. Fianna Fail were on 11% in Dublin, they polled 12.45% in Dublin in the 2011 election.
So it looks like any FF gains are ‘rural’, probably fits in with the whole furore over the last few weeks about crime and Garda Station closures.

17. Paddy Healy - February 9, 2013

Labour down to 7% outside Dublin in Poll- NO SEAT LEFT TO labour in MUNSTER?? Gimore in Danger in Dun Laoire!
Paddy Healy
According to latest IPSOS/MRBI Poll (Feb 8)—–
IN Danger of Defeat in next election:Eamonn Gilmore, Sean Sherlock, Kathleen Lynch
Definitely GONE: Howlin, Ciaran Lynch,Jan O’Sullivan, Alan Kelly, Joe Costelloe, Alex White ,Arthur Spring(Kerry), Ciara Conway (Waterford),McNamara(Clare),McCarthy(Cork SW), Nolan (Galway West), Nash(Louth), Ferris (Wicklow), Hannigan (Meath East),Wall(Kildare South), Ann Phelan (Carlow-Kilkenny), Burton or Nulty (Dublin West), Dowds or Tuffy (Dublin Mid-West), Kenny or Broughan (Dublin bay North), Lyons or Shorthall (Dublin North West)

Adrian Kavanagh, political geographer at National University of Ireland (Maynooth), provides a probable allocation of seats in future general elections based on current opinion polls on the academic political science blog PoliticalReform.ie.
I have put labour faces on his recent allocation based on the recent IPSOS/MRBI poll
Adrian Kavanagh’s full analysis is available by clicking below:
http://politicalreform.ie/2013/01/27/labour-pained-sunday-business-post-red-c-and-sunday-times-behaviour-attitudes-polls-of-27th-january-2013/#more-3833

The share of the Poll for Labour is down to 10% nationally but averages only 7% outside of Dublin
Adrian predicts 11 to 13 seats for Labour,Greens 0, Others 22 to 28, Sinn Féin 24 to 25 seats

18. tomasoflatharta - February 9, 2013

Ireland’s Banking Fiasco, Midnight Parliamentary Madness, A Government in Free Fall…..and Mass Media Self-Delusion http://tomasoflatharta.com/2013/02/09/irelands-banking-fiasco-midnight-parliamentary-madness-and-mass-media-self-delusion/

19. Daniel Sullivan - February 9, 2013

I can’t help thinking that too many folks (within the cogs of FG in particular) were unaware that a goodly portion of people voted for the two government parties, not out of any great love or as a massive endorsement but for want of anything credibly better. Now that voting cohort is solidly adrift and willing to consider any sort of alternative because too often FG specifically (thought Lab ministers too) seems more like it is participating in some form of administration and not a government that it is meant to be leading. It’s the stuff of middle management not leadership.

Taking one example, (and I don’t agree with the off the cuff way this was done or the supposed logic behind it) once we had a policy of abolition of the Seanad then we should just have gone ahead and put the question before the electorate with 12 months of the 2011 election. Instead it’s like a bum note that irritates which time the record gets played. ditto the constitutional convention or two parts political focus group/one part faction group as some have termed it.


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