Thinking about the latest polls… February 22, 2013
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
Fascinating to read the latest poll result from the Sunday Independent (Millward Brown took the poll) and see we now have something approaching a three and one half party system, plus a tranche of support for Independents and Others.
The Sunday Independent poll shows – when undecided voters (27 per cent) were excluded – Fianna Fail, 27 per cent; Fine Gael, 25 per cent; Labour 13 per cent; Sinn Féin, 20 per cent; and Independents/Others, 16 per cent.
What’s most striking about this is the way in which the polls now tend towards the same general conclusions. Fianna Fáil on the up, Fine Gael sliding, Labour reaching down towards its standard operating level, SF in the late teens or higher and Independents/Others remaining a remarkably cohesive bloc – albeit a bit of variation across the polls, but none showing them lower than 15 per cent.
The recent Irish Times poll had the following figures:
Fine Gael 25% (down 6%), Labour 10% (down 2%), Fianna Fail 26% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 18% (down 2%), Green Party 1% (down 1%), Independents, Socialist Party, United Left Alliance and Others 20% (up 6%).
And from January the last SBP Red C poll had the following:
FG 28% (NC), Labour 11% (down 3%), Fianna Fáil 21% (up 1%), Sinn Féin 19% (up 2%), Independents Others 21% (NC)
Of course these are snapshots, and no more than that, but the dynamics are consistent and – let’s be honest, disturbing. Fianna Fáil are moving upwards. There’s a fair old disparity between the RedC poll and the other two in relation to that party, but the underlying dynamic is one of growth. It will be useful to have a new RedC poll sometime in the next few weeks (perhaps next weekend) to compare and contrast. If there is indeed evidence of a shift from 21% upwards to the mid-20s it will be difficult not to read that as an halo effect – that as Fianna Fáil rises in the polls it becomes increasingly possible for those who wouldn’t afford it support to do so again. What does seem to be clear is that a tranche of those who voted for Fine Gael last time out are returning slowly to FF. That’s where a lot of the action appears to be. And in a way that’s a bit surprising. One would have thought that firstly more support would be hiding out in amongst the Independents and Others and secondly that those who had made the break from FF to FG would be loathe to return again (by the way, I have to admit to liking the title of this, and the point made about how the LP has by participating in Government cleared a space for SF to grow, not for the first time either, much the same occurred with the demise of DL back in the late 1990s where a fair tranche of the the residual radical vote that that party attracted never made the leap to Labour).
But apparently not. Though it’s interesting that in the Sunday Independent poll the Independents are beginning to take a hit.
What’s worth considering is whether SF’s strength will provide a ceiling on that growth of FF, or is the latter party fishing in a different pool, as it were. The thing being that FG in the period 2007 to 2011 oscillated between 20% and 36%, which suggests a base or core FG vote of the low 20s – on a bad day for them. If they are shifting down to that territory – as now seems likely, then there may not be a lot more of a vote for FF to mine there and so it will be onto SF and the Independents/Others.
The political effects of this are multiple. Note the most important one. The promissory note deal had no impact.
No real surprise there, perhaps. There was a bit too much calculation evident in the whole timing and sequencing of the events the week before last. And the outcome was far far less than might have been expected from a public facing yet another in a now long line of deflationary budgets.
And, in truth, if the IT poll is to be believed the situation was already one where FG had begun to slide. But the government, and FG in particular, will have pause for thought at just how little return there was on its rhetorically strenuous efforts on that matter.
Fine Gael for quite a while seemed to ride above the woes of its smaller partner in coalition. While the figures for the LP descended FG remained strong. But now it seems to have joined the LP in being affected by that pernicious dynamic. What impact does this have on both the longevity of Kenny as Taoiseach and leader and on short to medium term decision making? One would think that the former would come into question. And the latter will see all claiming their way is the best and their opponents in FG are in the wrong. Best example of that? Perhaps the abortion issue where one could interpret FGs decline as being a result of either not being explicitly anti-abortion enough or alternatively not cleaving sufficiently to a liberal position. I think, to be honest, it’s probably the latter, but the case will be made for the former. But I suspect their woes are the result of many factors, the reality of the last budget, the mixed messages over the ‘deal’ where it has been presented as both a game changer and yet also as making little or no difference on the ground. And of course the natural attrition of government itself, the need to take responsibility for decisions.
Labour? Who knows? It’s true that they could retain a fair few seats even with a significant further collapse of their vote, but… in a way their troubles precisely because they’ve been played out so publicly in recent months are perhaps less of an impact. We’ll see.
Sinn Féin could hardly be anything other than delighted at all this. Riding high in these polls, double and more their election figures in 2011. What’s not to like? In a way all they need to do is to consolidate this vote share and make sure to fend off the renascent FF. That latter task may be big enough, but it’s not beyond them.
And what of the Independents, looking a little less solid in this poll than in others – or is that evidence of a drift back and forth between Independents/Others and SF? That’s the big question. Are they a resource to be used by others or can they maintain the cohesiveness that brought them historic numbers in 2011?
The next RedC poll will be useful in answering that question, at least in part.
So 65% for explicitly pro Troika parties. And we call for a new government and/or elections. We don’t have even the shadow of an alternative to this lot.
SF on 20%, to this we could add at most another 10% and that is stretching it with the independent vote.
We need a reality check and out toytown bolsheviks should do a bit of navel gazing. In the worst recession since the 30s we are nowhere.
That’s just about it,Jim isn’t it?In the build up to the last election someone pointed out that all the parties( including FF)
and most indos were in favour of a third rate of tax for those over 100,000. The only party that was openly opposed to it was FG…guess who won!
That should be Budget and not election!
I would imagine if FF led the next government – already committed to years of austerity – then this head of steam they’re building would dissipate at the first austerity budget. Remember how fast Sean Gallagher’s vote fell when a reminder of the old FF ways emerged?
I still think that this is Sinn Fein’s to lose. If Gerry Adams was stood down for Mary Lou MacDonald and Pearse Doherty after the locals, I’d expect enough of a bounce to nose them into the lead.
FF are positioned for when the really nasty parts of the austerity are over. They figure a slight easing of the austerity will garner them kudos. The real powers that be must be very happy. 65% is a solid base for their rule. Plenty of time to make sure SF are fully housetrained like FF was by 1932. No real challenge from further left.Noisy protests that go nowhere because there is nowhere for it to go in the absense of a national left alternative.
I think its wrong to describe things as a three and a half party system of FF,FG,SF and Labour. SF support in an future general election is very much an unknown quantity. in the past ten years or so the support suggested in opinion polls has either been non existent or else soft when the election comes under pressure of media and campaigning. Their candidates can seem less capable than their rivals in debates. An election will move the debate on from protest politics to a demonstration of solid measures to address problems. WHile the legacy of the northern campaign may ben in decline the impression is lingering that the party is fundementally less than honest under the inevitable questions about the past that will be put. Martin McGuinness was proven to be wrong to think that you can simply draw a veil over things like that.
i think FF may hit the low 30′s but will yoyo back. they haven’t reinvented themselves enough yet imo to hit the 40′s. a constant in this is following the trioka plan in hazardize to your brand. still loads of room for chaos.
Precisely, loads of room for chaos. I just can’t get the whole ‘why aren’t the Left on the up in these circumstances’ viewpoint. Mainstream politics it a closed system and many people, who view politics in the same way as they buy fabric conditioner, have a quick look over the product and if they think it’ll do the job, they’ll go for it. FF fell into that category 1997-2011; FG are in there at the moment; things are going well, still, after all of the guff since election 2011; so go back to FF and maybe things turn out OK. In the meantime continue on with trying to get by and make a half-decent life. These polls keep getting the answers they want, more or less. Keep politics strictly within the FF-FG-Lab-SF-Others paradigm. We know that the Troika aren’t going away any time soon, we know we have very onerous conditions coming into force in 2015 with the austerity treaty and we still have a debt/GDP ratio that is completely unsustainable. These polls are besides the point. The ‘Troika’ Party (copyright ‘Richard’) always win in them. Every media outlet, political commentator and mainstream political party is committed to a fantasy world where ‘exports’ will get us back on track, exports which are largely illusory and based on accounting tricks and tax scams; where celebrating the creation of 12,000 net jobs in the private where we have 440,000 unemployed and net emigration of 35,000 is a ‘credible’ and ‘respectable’ political position; where tens of thousands are being pushed out of the public sector and the semi-states (both the backbone of the Irish economy and living standards) for no good reason and, still, many on the Left continue to believe that calls for a wealth tax and a stimulus are pie in the sky. The Left aren’t on the up here because basic Left wing policies – stimulus, job protection, real wealth taxes, tax increases on high earners – are completely verboten for the media and, in a micro managed democracy like ours, cannot be allowed space. In the meantime, we drifting further and further towards a real, real potential disaster when the state tries to re-finance at the end of the year.
We will have RedC in the next hour or so.