And they’re off… Meath East byelection on March 27th March 5, 2013
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.trackback
Outline of the candidates here…
Very difficult to see how this one will go. Sympathy for Fine Gael? Or a shift to FF? Or the left in whatever form?
BTW, interesting how unprepared how both FG and the LP are in terms of candidate selection etc.
Think FG are just holding off the announcement tbh and Labour aren’t really contesting.
PP has
Fianna Fáil 4/7
Fine Gael 5/4
Sinn Fein 20/1
Labour 33/1
Ah, makes sense. Do you think LP will put forward even so much as a token candidate?
Looking at those odds, FG’s price has come in quite a bit and FF have drifted in the last couple of weeks. Which would seem to indicate a few quid being put on FG, though it probably wouldn’t take a huge amount of money to change the odds here. A fortnight ago FG were 4/1 and Sf 10/1.
Quite strange that FG and the LP haven’t declared candidates yet.
If FG manage to get McEntee’s daughter to stand I’d say those odds will change.
Word from Labour locally is that the sitting TD Hannigan isn’t keen to have a rival in Meath East so isn’t too keen on spending resources in the by-election.
No odds from Paddy Power on the Workers’ Party candidate?
“Word from Labour locally is that the sitting TD Hannigan isn’t keen to have a rival in Meath East so isn’t too keen on spending resources in the by-election.”
Will that be his decision? In a bye-election, does HQ not take a leading role? (And in Labour, does HQ not effectively decide the candidate through the process of screen who can go to the selection convention?)
I would guess so, but HQ presumably would take into account the thoughts of their young bright thing in Meath East. Hannigan will be doing well to hol donto his own seat in the next general election, so why bother trying too hard in this by-election? They won’t win it and won’t want to try too hard either in case it might put in train something which might split Hannigan’s vote next time out. All pure conjecture on my part I admit.
More conjecture: would Labour even want to do well? Obviously, they’d wish to win, but that’s not going to happen. However, a creditable showing on the part of Labour might well contribute to a FG win on transfers, if it was a close run thing between FF and FG.
Under those circumstances, what’s of greater benefit to Labour: a FG win, in a situation where FG have the whip hand in government in any case (with the possible exception of the abortion issue, and even then …) or a FF win, where it makes no significant difference to the government majority anyway.
Is McEntee’s daughter being asked? I would have thought the circumstances of her father’s death would be enough to turn any of his family off the pressures of national politics.
Might the Workers Party’s McDonagh become an agreed CAHWT candidate, even informally? Some degree of tacit left co-operation could provide an effective protest vote.
Rockroots,
Yes, we hope that effective broad Left co-operation should be possible in this campaign.
There are some noises of a reluctance to endorse the candidacy from a certain organisation behind the CAHWT on the grounds that McDonagh is unlikely to do well and therefore should not tarnish the CAHWT brand by association. That would be unfortunate if that was indeed the position. And of course there are other organisations within the CAHWT don’t do electoral politics and don’t want to involve the campaign in that area of struggle either, which is consistent with their emphasis and must be respected.
However, we will be calling on all Left-inclined activists to get involved informally as it is important to give the electorate the option to vote for a candidate who resolutely opposes the home tax, austerity, and the bank bailout. We will be glad of a dig-out on the ground given the urgency involved.
If anyone would be willing to help out with canvassing, putting up posters, leafleting etc. please contact the WP in Meath by email via info at wpi-meath.org or contact Seamus McDonagh on 087 6596876.
As ever would be delighted if someone in Meath East could collect material for me
Will do
Thanks a million.
Early prediction: win for SF or FF
McEntee’s daughter nominated as FG candidate in Kells tonight.
http://www.meathchronicle.ie/news/roundup/articles/2013/03/07/4014822-helen-mcentee-is-fgs-byelection-candidate/
At a personal level one would have to feel some concern for her after what her father did to himself and their family. Politically of course this is traditional gombeen dynastic politics. She’ll probably cruise home on the sympathy vote. Mad stuff really. You’d want to be some cynic.
Ben Gilroy running under the Direct Democracy banner also
Bertie being deleted from the FF candidate’s history it seems
http://seamusmcdonagh.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/mcdonagh-says-thomas-byrnes-past-as-berties-man-in-meath-east-cannot-be-erased/
lolol
They forgot to delete the Flickr account:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/67697717@N00/272226768/in/photostream
“Bertie’s man in Meath”.