Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week December 22, 2013Posted by Garibaldy in Sunday Independent Stupid Statement of the Week.
First up, I wonder has this story appearing in their paper ruined half the columnists’ Christmas. That would be a shame. Then again, the very headline of this one is likely to restore their equilibrium.
Feudian slip of the year goes to Marc Coleman, who lavishes praise on the coalition’s strategy paper for the next 7 years, which is apparently set to bring back prosperity. Eventually.
Like wise men around a crib, government ministers have been waiting for last week’s GDP numbers. And for ESRI end-year forecasts also released last week. And both have brought tidings of joy. At 2.7 per cent for GNP and GDP, the ESRI’s forecast for growth next year is even better than the more optimistic scenario in the Government’s strategy document. Under it, we could reach full unemployment by 2020 or before.
It’s worth highlighting other parts of his column but. When he is saying how great things are right now, we get the following
But the news last week that the economy grew handsomely in the third quarter doesn’t fit the misery narrative. In 1.5 per cent for GDP and 1.6 per cent for GNP, the economy is now recovering.
However, when it comes to the future, what was handsome is now less than modest.
In fact, on modest assumptions — 2 per cent [growth] next year and 3.1 per cent on average out to 2020 — unemployment could fall to 8.1 per cent by the end of the decade. Under slightly better assumptions — 2.3 per cent growth next year and 3.2 per cent on average out to 2020 — it falls to 5.9 per cent. That is within shouting distance of full employment.
Does no-one proof-read this stuff, or is it some sort of Joycean stream-of-consciousness approach? It would explain a lot about the paper as a whole.