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And another set of poll projections! June 3, 2014

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics, The Left.
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As Tomboktu notes here, Adrian Kavanagh has applied the local election results to his projections and arrived at the following;

FG 39, FF 45, LAB 4, SF 21, OTH 49

Now, as Tomboktu also notes, Kavanagh considers this an ‘academic exercise’ fraught with problems. I think we could do what EamonnCork suggested and lop fifteen or twenty seats off the Independents number, and probably redistribute them amongst the rest to get a truer read. But even then this is purely hypothetical.

So what can we say? That most likely Independents/Other will do better than 2011. That SF will also do better. That FG and the LP will do worse, that FF will do better. We can also say that FG and the LP will do significantly worse and SF and FF significantly better. We can say that the Independent vote is likely to hold up and more, adding to the 19 Ind/Others who were elected in 2011, and – and this isn’t unimportant – let’s not forget that that number is supplemented by those like Lucinda Creighton, perhaps Roisin Shortall, Tommy Broughan and others who moved from their original party homes. So, all told 25 Ind/Others shouldn’t on even a fair day, be that difficult to see back in the Dáil. And that in a Dáil with a reduced number of seats (one wonders if FG and the LP rue the day they thought that was a good idea).

That’s a long long way from 49 others, and so it should be, that sort of outcome is simply unfeasible. But that more realistic set of numbers is a reasonable extrapolation from current trends in polling.

Kavanagh is appropriately cautious. He argues that:

Of course, the seat estimate here would be severely over-estimated, given that the constituency votes are being driven in a large part by the large number of candidates associated with these different groupings. (And the other disclaimers noted in the first paragraph also need to be taken account of.) Hence, by extension, the number of seats that would fall to the larger political parties would increase. (In this regard, Sinn Féin’s number would undoubtedly increase as they would be the next best placed party to take a seat in a number of constituencies where seats are being allocated to the Independents and Others grouping.)

Some interesting stuff in amongst the detail, not least that Kavanagh does not see the GP ‘recovery’ this last week translating into a Dáil seat. It might happen, but not even on foot of the vote we just saw.

And here’s the odd thing. What we really need now, well those of us interested in such things, is a proper GE poll, or better still a set of them, so we can see what if any changes the local/European elections have made in pre-existing trends.

Because the narratives emanating from the local/European elections may have a power of their own, in reinforcing certain patterns, a growing SF vote, likewise a growing Ind/Other vote. And so on.

We’ll know soon enough.

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