…or perhaps not. A new poll suggests that in Scotland there may be significant losses for the Labour Party as the SNP increases support substantially. And the knock on effect is that that may dent Labour’s prospects come the next British General Election.
The dramatic poll for STV said the SNP could win up to 54 Scottish seats and said Labour’s popularity was its lowest level since 2007, only a month after Labour had spearheaded a victorious referendum campaign against independence.
The poll put the SNP at a record high of 52% in Westminster voting intentions and Labour at just 23%.
It’s not just the referendum, there’s also this:
In a mark of the damage caused by the bruising resignation of Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont last week, when she accused Miliband of treating her party like “a branch office”, Miliband said his party had already been though a “tough week” and implied it would get worse.
Of course there’s a way to go to the next election, but…
With the Ipsos Mori poll for STV implying that the SNP would win 54 Westminster seats – a ninefold increase on the six seats it currently holds – losing scores of crucial Scottish Labour seats would be a potentially fatal blow to Miliband’s hopes of winning an overall majority at Westminster, since UK-wide polls suggest Labour and the Tories are neck and neck.
It’s difficult to blame the Scottish electorate. Some like to see the flow of support to the SNP as ‘nationalism’ incarnate, but I tend to see that as a shallow reading of the situation. When contextualised with the support for devo max options in polling the support of the SNP suggests that the dynamic both at the referendum is more one of disenchantment with both Labour and the Tories (the latter being all but wiped out in terms of representation at UK level in Scotland). Given that the SNP pushes a mildly progressive line (though with some pretty gaping flaws) it’s hardly surprising that many might prefer that over a Labour Party that appears transfixed with fear at the idea of articulating anything more than the mildest most anodyne centre (with the emphasis on centre) left ideas, and even then resiling from that. Add to that a sense that they are makeweights for a British Labour Party that is incapable of making headway under its own steam, and Scotland and the Scottish must suffer due to that incapacity, and it’s hardly surprising there’s a detachment from it. Indeed it’s also important to note the demographics of this. Prospect recently had some intriguing thoughts on why outright federalism is unfeasible in the UK, in large part because of the different weights of population in England, Scotland and Wales. Simply put England is too big, Scotland too small, and Wales too small again. So any simple federal arrangement simply results in English predominance. Given the actual distinctions between those areas (different legal and other systems) it’s hardly surprising that that would rankle.
UK Polling Report has an interesting take on this:
[polls] have been suggesting a strong showing for the SNP since the referendum. Today we have a proper, bespoke Scottish poll by Ipsos MORI and if anything it shows the SNP doing even better than the crossbreaks suggested. Topline voting intentions in Westminster with changes since the general election are CON 10%(-7), LAB 23%(-19), LDEM 6%(-13), SNP 52%(+32), GRN 6%(+5).
This would, to say the least, be rather a radical turnaround from the last general election. I don’t think swingometers offer much guidance in the case of really extreme results (a uniform swing would be mathematically impossible on this results – for example, there are about 9 seats in Scotland where Labour got less than 19% in 2010, so couldn’t lose 19% this time round…. but for the record on a uniform swing these figures would result in the SNP winning all but two seats in Scotland.
Well, who can tell? The politics of this subsequent to that sort of an outcome are fascinating. As is the question as to who might be pleased with such outcomes…
Speaking of Hawkwind, the Class War candidate… October 25, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics, Class War (UK).
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…in Tottenham is former Hawkwind lead singer, Captain Rizz.
That apology over the UKIP song… October 22, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.
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Read said he was sorry for “unintentionally causing offence” with the tune sung in a fake Caribbean accent, featuring lyrics about “open borders” and “illegal immigrants in every town”.
Free movement of labour inside the EU and the Tories. October 20, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics, European Politics.
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…dismissed possible Conservative plans to impose a cap on EU migrants as an “airy fairy” proposal that would never be accepted.
Britain signed up to agreement after agreement in relation to the free movement of labour inside the EU.
What’s compounds that, and is so palpably hypocritical about the Tory stance is the complete lack of interest as regards capital movement.
But it’s also interesting looking through comments BTL to see how indifferent they are to the one actual land border that Britain has, with the RoI and it’s intriguing, is it not, to wonder how this state would fit in with all these plans (though there are bilateral agreements IIRC since the 1920s).
Some see this as a typical bluff by the British government but I wonder? I don’t believe UKIP will have anywhere near the sort of influence some are suggesting it will have in the next parliament, or even the sort of numbers some are throwing around, but there’s little doubt in my mind from talking to people in the UK in recent times and having been there recently that there’s been a decisive shift in the broader mood. Where this takes them is a troubling question.
a new Ukip calypso theme tune sung [by former DJ Mike Read, FFS, and he has form here having sung songs for Tory conferences] in a fake-Caribbean accent that criticises political leaders for allowing “illegal immigrants in every town”.
Sad news for UKIP October 16, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.
The development means a loss of funds and less influence for the parties in the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) group.
The other byelections… October 10, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.
…on the other side of the Irish Sea. There’ll be no end of stuff about the UKIP win in Clacton and the close enough, but not quite, showing in Middleton – how UKIP can now strike deep into Labour heartlands. And yet two points need to be made immediately. Firstly these were byelections – general elections are a whole different ballgame, and come on foot of remarkably positive coverage of UKIP in recent times. Secondly the Labour vote actually increased in Middleton slightly, and did so without running a campaign that mentioned immigration. And there’s this:
Despite Ukip’s declarations that “the dam has burst”, elections analyst Prof John Curtice said Heywood and Middleton showed that Ukip can come “a very good second”, but winning is another matter.
And as to what UKIP might feasibly win at the next GE?
…pollsters YouGov, for example, believe the party could win 10 – including Nigel Farage in Thanet South, Diane James in Eastleigh, along with a half a dozen between the Humber and the English Channel.
And the thinking is that with UKIP impacting on Tories, and the SNP on Labour ‘leave both Labour and the Conservatives with roughly equal numbers of MPs’ and with the LD’s in trouble it’s minority government ahead. Again, we’ll see.
The Enemy Within October 5, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics, The Left.
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..the draft transcripts of the discarded conference speech [by Margaret Thatcher, abandoned after the IRA bombing of the hotel she was staying at for the Conservative conference] reveal that, far from regretting using the phrase “enemy within”, which she had only used previously used in private, the Tory prime minister was quite prepared, in the middle of the bitter 1984-85 miners’ strike, to repeat it publicly – and widen it to include nearly the whole of the Labour movement.
Now there’s an illuminating insight into how close to the political edge Thatcher was prepared to go.
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…reading this was useful. Conor Gearty in the Guardian notes that the Tories ‘promise’ to essentially derogate from the ECHR (which, needless to say they, the Tories, seem to assume is part of the EU structure), has an interesting side effect closer to home:
What of Scotland and of Wales? Neither gets a mention – just a vague reference to working with the devolved legislatures “to make sure there is an effective new settlement across the UK”. The referendum’s message of inclusivity is already long forgotten, it seems. And the Good Friday agreement, which settled Northern Ireland’s conflict – it specifically requires incorporation of the convention into Northern Ireland’s law. What will happen there?
Gearty suggests it’s effectively back of an envelope politicking, yet more reddish meat thrown to appease the unappeasable on the eurosceptic wing of the party. Indeed so. But as always there’s the sense that Cameron and Co simply don’t get, or perhaps more accurately, don’t care about the ramifications of what they do. We saw something similar in the near immediate clawback of promises made during the Scottish referendum once the vote was in.
While you’re thinking about that think about this… George Osborne decides to take a swing at the charity sector in the UK. Looks like some are going to take a swing back.
George Osborne has triggered a backlash from charities after he urged companies to defend the economy against their “anti-business views” and those of pressure groups and trade unions.
He is beyond parody. But he is also in power.
UKIP and potential Labour defectors? October 3, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.
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Mark Hennessy in the Irish Times a couple of weeks ago had an odd story about how purportedly the Yes side in the Scottish referendum had played ‘nasty’ or something to that effect, a jibe which while put about strenuously by parts of the No side appeared to have little or no substance to it.
Possible Labour defectors
Miliband’s nightmare, even if the odds are against it for now, is that north of England MPs worried about their seats could defect. Almost as damaging, are rumours about such defections.
I think the dangers of same are close to zero. Labour remains ahead in the polls (see UK Polling Reports latest figures here). Miliband is far from loved, but he doesn’t have to be. A certain Tory PM now feted both by her party and further afield was remarkably unpopular before she was elected. And just for the record I’ve little time for Miliband either. But the idea Labour MPs would shift to UKIP is bizarre. Are any driven to the same extent by euroscepticism, or actual europhobia, which is pretty much what we seen in parts of the Tory party these days? I’m hard pressed to think of one. And while UKIP makes a lot of noise about Labour seats truth is their only serious scope for gains is in Tory one’s for so many reasons obvious and not that it’s almost pointless to articulate them.
Even putting aside defections the threat from UKIP to the LP appears at this point to be relatively low level. This piece in the Independent can only point to five seats which are ‘best prospects’ (and that on an extrapolation from local and EU elections which is problematic to begin with).
Sickening… October 1, 2014Posted by WorldbyStorm in British Politics.
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Bevan wasn’t far wrong way back when, and look at this now…
David Cameron launched an audacious bid to woo voters in next year’s general election by pledging to raise the personal income tax threshold by £2,000 a year as well as lifting the 40% tax band to £50,000.
Casting the Conservatives as the “trade union for hardworking” people, the prime minister reached out to aspirational voters in Middle Britain by unveiling a £7.2bn double tax cutting promise, which prompted a rapturous reception at the Tory conference.