The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Sinn Féin, the 2014 Local Elections and winning a seat in every Council Chamber May 14, 2012

In the 2007 General Election and the 2009 Local and European Elections the expected continued rise of Sinn Féin in The Republic of Ireland was halted. In 2007 Sinn Féin went from 5 Dail seats to 4, In 2009 Mary Lou McDonald lost her European seat and the Local Election results provided little or no cheer as seats were both lost and gained. Indeed in the aftermath of those 2009 elections a number of councillors left the party . There was talk of a vote ceiling having been reached and so on…..
….I was recently discussing recent opinion polls with a friend, where naturally the subject of Sinn Feins recent poll gains came up. We wondered what targets they had for the 2014 Local Elections.
They should win at least a hundred County Council seats (they hold around 50 at the minute) was my friends suggested target. I felt that, privately at least, they should aim higher, not necessarily seat totals but to target a seat on every County Council in the country.
Why?
A number of reasons but firstly because its something Labour have never been able to do and may well be something that Fianna Fail will have a problem doing in 2014. It also shows that the party has a base in every corner of the country (indeed the Island).
In the long run too being a Councillor, getting in the local paper etc is a way to build up profile and win a Dail seat. Of their current TDs all of them have been an elected Representative in a Council Chamber, Twon Council, European Parliament, Seanad and of course in Gerry Adams case Assembly and Westminster.

These are the County and City Councils without Sinn Fein Representation at present.
Carlow, Clare, Dun Laoghaire -Rathdown, Fingal, Galway City Council, Kildare, Kilkenny, Limerick Longford, Offaly, Tipperary South Riding ,Westmeath and Wexford.

So two years ahead of the Local elections and assuming that there are no councils rationalised in the meantime etc etc etc…. Here’s a brief Council by Council analysis of Sinn Feins prospects of winning seats.

Carlow – John Cassin missed out on a seat in Carlow West in 2009 by 20 votes polling 454 votes. He polled 2,958 in the 2011 General Election as Sinn Fein ran a Carlow and also a Kilkenny candidate.

Cavan – Sinn Fein already have a decent presence there and will surely increase it in 2014.

Clare – A potential blackspot, no candidate was run in the General Election. Surely prospects though in Shannon and Ennis of picking up a seat.

Cork City Council – Won 4 seats in 2009 and have since added another in former Green Party and Independent Councillor Chris O’Leary. Likely to gain more

Cork County Council – The now Cork East TD Sandra McLellan was their only County Councillor in Cork. Sizeable votes in both City and County in the 2011 General Election would indicate Sinn Fein winning at least 3 seats on the County Council

Donegal – Currently 4 County Councillors and are likely to gain at least one more.

Dublin City Council – They won 7 seats here in 2009, but lost 3 of them as Killian Forde, Louise Minihan and Christy Burke all left the party. There was disappointment too at Daithi Doolan, Ray McHugh and Ray Corcoran losing their seats. Highly likely to be in double figures next time around.

Dun Laoghaire -Rathdown – Another area where Sinn Fein polled poorly (where they stood) in 2009. With Richard Boyd Barrett now in the Dail is some of his vote and the Labour vote up for grabs in Dun Laoghaire? Glencullen Sandyford has quite a lot of new housing (with huge negative equity and other problems) and may well get an extra seat as it is under respresented. I’d rate this as possibly one of the hardest Council for Sinn Fein to win a seat in.

Fingal – Another County Council without a Sinn Fein Councillor since Paul Donnelly lost his seat in 2009. He polled well in the General Election and the subsequent by-election. Clare Daly and Joe Higgins not being on ballot papers may also help Sinn Fein candidates in Castleknock and Swords. Sinn Fein to win at least one if not more seats here.

Galway City Council is another Council chamber that is currently without a Sinn Fein Representative. Trevor Ó Clochartaigh polled over 3,800 votes at the General Election and a good deal of them would have been from the City (as well as his Connemara base) . A decent enough bet of at least one seat here.

Galway County Council – Already one Councillor here with Ballinasloe based Dermot Connolly. Likely to add at least one Councillor here.

Kerry - Currently two councillors here but will be looking at winning two seats in Listowel and Tralee and possibly one in Killarney.

Kildare is another County without a Sinn Fein County Councillor. Martin Kelly and Jason Turner polled over 5000 votes between them in the General Election which would indicate that there would be at least one Sinn Fein seat somewhere in the county.

Kilkenny also has no Sinn Fein County Councillor at present (although Kathleen Funchion is on Kilkenny Borough Council). Kathleen Funchion should win a seat the next time out especially having polled over 4,000 votes in last years General Election.

Laois - Brian Stanley was relected to Laois County Council in 2009 and has won a seat in the Dail since then. Alan Hand his successor should hold the party seat with possible gains in Emo and Mountmellick.

Leitrim – has had Sinn Fein representation continually since 1974. There are currently two councillors and its likely that at least two more will be returned with seats in Carrick on Shannon and Dromohaire on the cards.

Limerick City Council. – Maurice Quinlavin won a seat here in 2009 and polled well in the General Election. Likely to be joined by two others in the council chamber in 2014.

Limerick County Council – Limerick County Council is another barren area for Sinn Fein, they are quite active in Rathkeale and Newcatlewest so there is a possibility of s seat there but probably only a remote chance. That said if their current rate of growth continues ….

Longford – Sinn Fein polled poorly here in 2009 but the Athlone based candidate Paul Hogan polled 4,339 votes in last years General Election in Longford Westmeath. Hard to say where they’d win a seat but its likely they’ll win at least one here.

Louth – The party currently hold six seats on the County Council and will be looking to add at least one seat if not more in 2014.

Mayo – The party currently has two County Councillors here, will be looking to add at least one more to that number in 2014.

Meath – Joe Reilly is the party’s only councillor in Meath at the minute. They will be looking to add to that total with seats in Kells, Slane and a second seat in Navan realistic targets.

Monaghan – Seven Sinn Féin County Councillors in Monaghan at the minute with hopes of possibly one more.

Offaly – Another County Council chamber lacking Sinn Féin representation. With Brian Cowen no longer Taoiseach, a seat in Tullamore is a realistic chance.

Roscommon – With one seat already, further gains are bound to happen especially with the Roscommon Hospital issue (although the RHAC already have 2 councillors).

Sligo County Council – Currently they have one Councillor but are likely to add at least two more in 2014 with Ballymote and Sligo-Drumcliff likely targets.

South Dublin County Council – With 3 seats already, Sinn Féin will be looking to win extra seats in Tallaght South, Clondalkin and make a breakthrough in Lucan.

Tipperary North Riding – Assuming this council (and Tipperary South Riding) survives until the 2014 then Seamus Morris should hold on to his seat in Nenagh. Hes been fairly active and is a constant presence in local media. Morris polled well in the General Election which would indicate possibly another Sinn Fein seat on the council although at this juncture its hard to see where.

Tipperary South Riding – Another area without a Sinn Féin County Councillor. With a presence already on 2 Town Councils (Cashel and Carrick on Suir) its likely that they will win at least one seat here. Fethard a possibility.

Waterford City Council. Sinn Fein actually lost a seat when winning the one seat here in 2009. They will more than likely pick up a seat in each ward next time out.

Waterford County Council- Currently hold two seats here, David Culllinanes 5,342 votes in the General Election would indicate that there is at least another seat for Sinn Fein here.

Westmeath – Hard to see Sinn Féin not making a breakthrough here and winning at least one seat on the council. Athlone based Paul Hogans General Election performance would indicate that he’s in with a decent shout of a seat and there may also be a seat for the party in Mullingar.

Wexford – Lost their two seats here in 2009 and will be looking to get back in the Council Chamber in 2014. The Wexford Town based Tony Kelly polled 4,353 votes in the General Election. I’d expect them to win at least two seats here in 2014.

Wicklow – John Brady and John Snell won seats here in 2009. Bradys performance in the General Election when he polled 7,089 votes and lost out by a handful of votes to Stephen Donnelly shows that there is a big Sinn Fein vote in the county. Would imagine they’d double their seats here in 2014.

So of the 13 Councils that Sinn Féin have no councillors there are three in particular that I think will be hard targets. Dun Laoghaire Rathdown, Limerick County Council and Clare. Stranger things have happened and at 21% in the latest Red C poll its possible.