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Budget Report! October 13, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Unemployment, 6% or so in 2021!

Headline balancing books in 2018!

It’s all going to be rosy – if everything goes well. So we are told. And already we’re being told, entirely unabashed by those doing the telling whether in the media or amongst the political classes that ‘austerity’ is over. Which will be news to those of us who have watched the cuts and cuts and totted up the cumulative effect of same and can see that some of that will never be reversed and in other instances the period of austerity has been so great that it can never be ameliorated and so on.

Anyhow, this is, as others are noting a deeply political budget. What do people think the impact of these measures is going to be? Positive, negative or neutral for the government, and what of the individual government parties – is this a good Budget for Labour or for Fine Gael? Enough to see them go to an election now? Or wait until early next year when some of the measures are introduced and implemented?

My one thought was that they were smearing the jam very thinly across the slice of toast. One tax increase – that on cigarettes and it’s clear what the focus of all this was.

And fair dues to Pearse Doherty and Mary Lou McDonald for raising a basic point, that for all the guff about ‘middle income’ earners, the reality is that 50% of earners are above 28,500, 50% below. That’s ‘middle income’ in the real sense of the term. And more again from Doherty on the difference between direct and indirect taxes and how the latter weigh especially heavily on those on lower incomes. It certainly was a bit of a wake up call after largely soporific performances from Noonan, Howlin and what may somewhat tentatively termed the FF financial team. Of all the speakers to that point he was the only one who sounded as if he had any sense of what the reality of homelessness or poverty was like. I didn’t get to hear the rest of the opposition so any thoughts on their contributions gratefully accepted.

Cork LGBT Archive News October 13, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Many thanks to Orla Egan of Cork LGBT Archive for forwarding details of the latest developments. There’s another site now connected with this project with items scanned from the project and can be found here. All feedback welcome and do mention it to people you know.

There is also a Facebook page here. And last but not least a twitter account @CorkLGBThistory

A very important project and one well worth keeping an eye on.

Public Opinion and the Rising October 13, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Again, given the day that is in it, and the wall to wall coverage of the Budget, no harm to step away from that briefly for a moment. A comment under a Diarmuid Ferriter piece here in the IT on the need for a Republic Day got me thinking. It stated baldly that:

The 1916 rebellion had NO support from the majority of the Irish people.

A further comment down the page suggested consulting JJ Lee’s ‘Ireland 1912-1985: Politics and Society’. I’m still a fan of Lee and that book in particular – despite a few oddities in the text and analysis. I think it offers a very clear-headed view of Irish history during that period laced with a necessary irony and scepticism about all those involved. it’s certainly a world away either from revisionism or adherence to previous nostrums.

Be that as it may Lee engages directly with that issue of support and suggests in quite a lengthy portion of the section on the Rising that simple assertions of no support may be wide of the mark (and also points subtly to a strong class bias in such interpretations). He suggests that information on what was actually happening filtered out with remarkable slowness, that while there was unquestionably a sense that the Rising was a foolhardy enterprise as it manifested itself there was a broader sense that it was, if not quite justifiable, certainly legitimate – a fine distinction, but not one without significance.

It’s always struck me as instructive that there were two particular dynamics in evidence. Firstly a very rapid shift in sympathy towards those executed – and so rapid in fact that it further legitimised the events of 1916 in the popular imagination. It’s difficult not to feel that a door that was already open was being pushed – sympathy, absolutely understandable, but that transmuting into support, less so unless such support was already extant in some albeit quiescent form.

Secondly a small illustration. There were very very few tricolours in evidence during the Rising. A horizontal one was on the front of the GPO and I think there was a vertical one flown at Boland’s Mills. Otherwise it was gold harp on a green field flags. So in a sense the representation of this event was one rooted in a more traditional historical approach (as well as which it was probably easier to get hold of green flags – practicality, a great driver of historical events). At the commemorations at Easter 1917 almost all the flags displayed were tricolour flags. Again that’s a massive shift, but one that is understandable – Home Rule had self-evidently failed, its devices were now superseded but the more muscular and overt Republicanism of the tricolour. And even though by any reasonable criteria the Rising itself was a failure it was one that allowed for a perception that there that more muscular republicanism was the only way forward. The military approach had failed but it opened up space for a more pointed political approach to be followed by yet further military action (though Lee as always points out that the ultimate form of the struggle for independence was one which would have been a surprise to many involved in the Rising who envisaged open military actions rather than guerrilla warfare).

To me that suggests that those like John Bruton who argue that the Home Rule path was both right, successful and inevitably bound to succeed may have long over-estimated the attachment of the Irish to Home Rule, an attachment that was arguably cosmetic and shallow-rooted and that once something more substantial was on offer was rapidly pushed aside.

Of course it does no service to replace one partial analysis with another. Clearly there were those who were opposed to the Rising and bitterly so in many instances. And the reasons for that, cultural, social and economic are obvious. Moreover they also – I would hazard – constituted a significant enough block. But whether they were the majority seems unlikely, not least given the overall support for advanced nationalism from that period on in political terms.

An unreal issue – the date of the election October 13, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

The talk about the date of the election reached risible heights (or is it depths) last week, didn’t it? Headline after headline in the media stated the bleeding obvious – most entertainingly with a series in the IT which went more or less as follows on consecutive days.

Kenny declines to say if election will be this year or next

Banking inquiry should finish work before election, Burton …

Burton confident election will be held in early 2016

Fine Gael insists timing of election is Kenny’s call

Burton admits election timing is a matter for Taoiseach

Well now, who’d have guessed?

I’ve questioned the concentration on this, but I think it’s very telling to be honest. It always seemed there was an evasionary quality to it away from the Budget itself, or the policies of Fine Gael and Labour in government. It has functioned perfectly in terms of diverting attention away from actual issues. And there are broader problems, the sense that it such talk locks into a discourse in relation to political activity of it being about ‘events’ rather than processes or dynamics. And it’s also so pointless in purely electoral terms (almost so, anyhow). It will not impact substantively, I would argue, on the outcome of the next election. Fine Gael will still be the largest party and its task will remain identical, to cobble together sufficient votes to retain power.

The issue of the election date doesn’t alter matters all that much – or at least not in a way that is knowable. Earlier, events are more predictable. But perhaps FG hasn’t yet peaked and so on and so on. And perhaps that is why Kenny eventually came out with his strongest statement that a Spring date was the one he intends to go for.

Let me admit that I felt almost a twinge of sympathy for Enda Kenny this week on reading in the Irish Times that on foot of that latest pronouncements:

One Fine Gael source said: “We were of the impression that he would say he sees no reason at present to have an early election. He went one bit further and effectively ruled it out.
“It makes us look very weak and makes it seem we were dictated to by Labour.
“It is safe to say we were all a bit stunned by his comments.”

The key word in my sentence above is ‘almost’. Because this is entirely a mess of his, and FG’s, own making. The unnamed FG ‘source’ is as complicit as Kenny, albeit it was the latter who went out and made the play.

Simply put they were too clever by half. Great idea stoking up worries and anxieties amongst the opposition. Hey, it worked! But the inevitable problem was that if he wasn’t willing to go for it he would sooner or later have to make a statement of intent and that would cut across all the ambiguity and play acting of the previous weeks. And so he has and now having heightened expectations on his own side he has had to then dash them.

Last week I’d half written up a piece suggesting that this could if it went wrong work in a not dissimilar way to the process that occurred when Gordon Brown failed to call an election rapidly after becoming leader of the British Labour Party, therefore allowing the press and rivals to hammer him relentlessly as ‘bottling it’. But it didn’t seem to resonate and therefore I didn’t post it (perhaps I should have, others are rushing now to make the comparison) – it’s not quite the same with Kenny, he has the legitimation of being the (so far) most successful FG leader in the history of this state, but without question this destabilises him and allows for some noises off about his…well… bottling it. Not as bad as Brown, absolutely. Not great. Without question.

I think it’s the low level internal FG aspects of this that will be of greater importance than the actual election result. And while Labour seems pleased it strikes me that this is of no consequence whatsoever. Is the New Year really going to see an improvement in their currently dire prospects? Perhaps but not to any great degree, surely.

The next poll will be interesting. As will the measures unveiled today.

Smalltime October 13, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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The Blades first new tune in 30 years can be heard and bought here
I like it.

Class war in Irish politics. October 13, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Given the day that’s in it, well worth reading this excoriating take-down of the RENUA Budget ‘proposals’ by Michael Taft.

He points out, and this is something that Lucinda Creighton admits, that the flat tax idea would leave those on the lowest incomes worse off than at the moment while effectively gifting those on higher incomes considerable sums. Amazingly, as Michael notes, Creighton’s response to this is that those on low incomes should – in effect – work longer hours! Amazing.

But what, you may ask, is the rationale for all this talk of flat taxes? Well look no further than Deputy Creighton’s homepage where one can read this:

6. Is Flat Tax Progressive?
Firstly, a flat tax is the progressive tax system in insofar as the rich do in fact pay a lot more in tax than the poor in absolute terms. The abolition of reliefs and loopholes means that if you earn more money, you pay more tax. There are no more special arrangements for the wealthy.
RENUA Ireland also does not accept the premise that a progressive tax system must involve graduated tax bands. We believe in everyone paying their fair share, which is what a flat tax achieves.
Secondly, under our flat tax at low incomes, the average rate of tax paid by the poor is much lower than the average rate of tax paid by middle and higher income earners, owing to the basic income support included in our model.
Thirdly, a flat tax will incentivise work and reduce the burden owed to the state to the extent that it can create real and lasting economic growth, which will benefit all. By contrast under our current system the political Left prioritise an ideological commitment to punishing the wealthy at the expense of delivering real economic opportunity to working people.
We must not fall into the trap of disregarding the practical benefit of this proposal by focusing on theoretical and ideological hang-ups.

Well that’s a remarkable assertion that a flat tax is ‘progressive’ because the ‘rich’ pay ‘more’ than the ‘poor’. Perhaps someone doesn’t understand the technical sense of the term ‘progressive’ in relation to taxes.

Note that the flat tax isn’t ‘ideological’ whereas the tax system used in polities as different as the United States, Germany and this one is!
Michael makes mince-meat of the ‘basic income’ line above. It’s nothing of the sort, and no surprise there.

But what about those who are on the lowest incomes? Glad you asked.

7. How does a flat tax affect the most vulnerable in society?
A flat tax liberates the most vulnerable in society by increasing consumption, increasing wealth and providing a real incentive for people to get off social welfare, seek out a job and become economically self-reliant.
Not only are welfare-driven poverty traps eradicated under a flat tax, but minimum wage earners will be much better off by taking on additional hours of overtime, or moving from part-time to full-time work.
What our proposal does is offer a simple way to organically increase economic growth in the short, medium and longer term. Additionally, in the short-term the transition to a flat tax will provide an economic stimulus of over €3bn into the domestic economy (over a full fiscal year). People will feel the reduction in their weekly or monthly payslips and help commence the process of driving domestic growth on the high street and elsewhere.
A flat tax benefits everyone at lower income levels by creating the opportunity to work for everyone who wants to work.
It will damage the black market by making people more tax compliant.
It will reduce the number of capital-owners who locate and pay taxes overseas to avoid our punitive rates of tax here, and it will free up Irish people’s income, thereby increasing our rate of consumption.
As a society, we believe in, and defend vigorously, a flat tax of 12.5% on corporations. It works, it is simple, it is straightforward, and the flat tax variant of this should be applied to our personal incomes.

Can’t say I like the tone of the ‘A flat benefits everyone at lower income levels by creating the opportunity to work for everyone who wants to work’ quite apart from the small point that it is entirely unsupported by any actual data. Point 5 underscores this.

5. How does the flat tax encourage employment, enterprise, work and growth?
Just as the flat tax modifies government revenue in a variety of ways, it also has a dynamic impact on individuals from different income classes.
Taxpayers from all income levels would adjust to a greater or lesser extent to the changes in the tax system. Currently unemployed individuals will be able to find a job as a result of the economic expansion generated by the flat tax. Taxpayers who now pay the starting and basic rate will be willing to work harder since they would no longer face increasing marginal tax rates.
Finally, top earners might switch their investments from activities that minimize their tax burden to those investments that actually bring them the highest profit.
In general, all taxpayers would modify their behaviour, so that to best take advantage of the flat tax benefits.

‘A greater or lesser extent’? How much greater, how much lesser? What evidence is there for the ‘will’s’ in the above, why should we take them any more seriously than the ‘might’ in the second last sentence?

There’s more. Note points 8…

8. Should tax punish the rich?
We need to dispel the notion peddled by the Left during Ireland’s financial crisis that there is something wrong with making money, being successful and creating wealth. If someone works hard we want them to keep as much of that as possible. That applies as much to the minimum wage worker as to the well-off professional.
We want to clamp down on the scenario where a hard-working parent hands over most of what they earn to the taxman. That, rather than the creation of wealth or the attraction of those who can generate wealth to a country, is what is really immoral.
The biggest winners from this policy are working families across Ireland who pay income tax, pay PRSI, pay USC, pay the TV licence, the motor tax, their water charges and all of their other utility bills. They are the backbone of this economy and they deserve a break. We want to give those people more money and we are not ashamed to say it.

Not a word about the state, social and other provision, indeed anything. It’s as if taxes are a sort of punitive raid on the great and the good by those who take them for the hell of it. But then for some who will find this attractive that is the relationship.

And note too a fascinating sleight of hand where ‘rich’ suddenly becomes short hand for pretty much everyone! Except for the ‘poor’. Amazing.

What is this? Well, its a pretty unashamed appeal to the best-off, a fairly naked policy approach to transfer wealth from the less well off to those who are much better off, and in doing so offer a sort of kind of economic justification for same, albeit one which appears desperately thin on any serious examination. But there’s a basic problem with the rush to point to such global titans as Latvia, Estonia, Hong Kong and so on. They’re marginal states, bar HK which was in a rather more anomalous position. Even in the powerhouse of capitalism there’s no serious push for flat taxes. Some would argue this is a solution in search of a problem.

It’s amazing in a way how RENUA continue to push a line that they’re not ideological when they’re so clearly pro… well, ‘rich’ as they put it above. It certainly goes far beyond any other party in Irish political life at the moment. Hard to believe the LP, FF or FG would be quite so naked. Of course one is reminded of the old Bush Jr. line about ‘these are my base’, and indeed that is who RENUA is attempting to appeal to.

Karl Whelan has some not entirely kind thoughts about the RENUA proposal here…
And Cormac Staunton on TASC has further thoughts too about the inequities of the proposed policy. He notes in particular that in this respect RENUA places enormous emphasis on ‘trickle-down’ effects, which as he suggests are ‘more and more discredited by evidence and experience’.

And he notes that this would also have an enormous effect on overall tax take such that it would…

“…result in a tax take of €12.33 billion, versus the current take of €15.84 billion. Though this equates to a difference of 22 per cent in tax take”

Clearly they don’t intend to plug that gap, for as Michael notes in the face of multiples crises and challenges facing this economy on many of them…

Renua proposes  . . . nothing. 

But in a way is that not of a piece with the above. For those RENUA is attempting to get support from these aren’t issues, or are of marginal importance. Whether there are sufficient of a like mind to support it is an intriguing question. Or are any potential RENUA voters really going to dig into such curious policy proposals as these, rather than simply flying along with the idea that Creighton is a good parliamentarian or politician, whatever her specific policy ideas?

This is the party feted in some quarters of the media. This is the party that is seriously considered to be a contender for a Coalition following the next election. These are the policies on which it intends to contest that election.

One has to wonder whether this comment from earlier in the year by Creighton was more prescient than she knew – particularly in relation to the order of importance…

Renua is a party. It has a brand, it has an identity, it has a policy platform.

Some would argue that that last comes in a very distant third.

Anyhow, as we hear of the Budget measures introduced this week, perhaps it’s useful to reflect upon the thought that while RENUA might seemingly be at the extreme end of matters its proposals run with the grain, not against it, of Irish political activity and those who run this state.

Workers Party Forum on the Housing Crisis – 15th Oct 7.30pm – Axis Centre, Ballymun October 12, 2015

Posted by guestposter in Uncategorized.


Over 42,000 people, including 16,500 children on Dublin City Council’s housing waiting list.

Rents in Dublin have increased by 10% since 2014, forcing families to live in hotel rooms or on the streets.

Council tenants living in houses with damp and pyrite while councils are not responding appropriately due to Government cutbacks

Come to the Forum and be part of a discussion about solutions to the housing crisis that put the needs of working class families and communities of the profits of developers.

What can be done to solve this housing epidemic?

SPEAKERS: Fr. Peter McVerry – Housing and Homelessness Campaigner

Lorraine Hennessy – Housing Activist with Balgaddy Working Together who have bravely fought to improve housing conditions in their area

Jimmy Dignam – Workers’ Party Dublin North West Candidate

A Corbyn media effect? October 12, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

This from Peter Preston in the Observer is curious:

Was there a “Corbyn effect” on newspaper sales in September as Labour selected the new special one? Not for a Tory-leaning press unleashing salvoes of criticism. The Sun (-3.51%), the Express (-2.88%), the Mail (-1.08%) and the Telegraph (0.50%) were all down on August’s figures, with the Times standing flat pat.

As for those readers who said they’d cancel their Guardian or Indy because they weren’t cheerleading for Jezza hard enough, they’re difficult to pick up too. The Guardian (up 1.02%) and the Indy (up 1.73%) had solid Septembers – as, since you ask, did the Observer, up 3.74%.

I don’t find it entirely difficult to understand. If one thinks about it the media onslaught on Corbyn has been relentless (including from supposedly ‘left’ media). Yet that has simultaneously gifted the Labour Party an enormous amount of coverage, and the hyperbole in relation to Corbyn has meant that any reasonable scrutiny has demonstrated that far from being extreme his positions are actually quite moderate.

Left Archive: Fightback Students Bulletin (Galway), No. 3, May 1993, Irish Workers Group. October 12, 2015

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Left Online Document Archive, Irish Workers Group.
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To download the above please click on the following link. IWG FIGHTBACK 93

Please click here to go the Left Archive.

Many thanks to IEL for forwarding this document from the Irish Workers Group to the Archive. A brief four pages it engages with a broad range of issues. The cover suggests that ‘After Warrington: Provos in a cul-de-sac’.

It argues that:

The recent IRA bombing of Warrington in England resulting in civilian deaths and the subsequent moral outrage throughout Ireland once more brings into question the call for continued support for the Republican struggle. It is necessary to criticise the IRA for this mindless act of violence, but we need to point out the irony of the situation where politicians and and groups north and south of the border condemn the act while ignoring and shunning the protest of Republican mothers whose sons and daughters have been killed in huge numbers (121 children dead) over the past 25 years.

It notes that:

Thought the Republican movement contains serious flaws in make-up and strategy, we must place them within the wider international context of the struggle against world imperialism. Worldwide a handful of powerful nations brutally oppress and dominate the rest. Britain is one of the leading powers of imperialist capitalism and from the perspective of the oppressed workers of the world, the national struggle against British rule in Northern Ireland is essentially progressive.

Therefore even though the Republican movement is misguided, we must not neglect the call for unconditional support for the progressive aspects of their struggle and for the right to self-determination of the Irish people.

It concludes by arguing that:

If the struggle is to move forward, the broader goal of working class action must be pursued. Only in this way can it hope to link with protestant workers by showing them that their interests will be served by creating a workers republic as a stepping stone towards international socialism.

There are other articles exhorting readers to ‘Fight the Dole Cuts!’ and one on ‘Canteen Chaos!’ in the canteen at UCG which notes a church on campus grounds but insufficient facilities for students.

Another piece examines the ‘origins of Gay and Lesbian oppression’ and suggests that ‘in this climate of growing moral reaction, the task for socialists in relation to the lesbian and gay question is to provide a communist perspective for liberation’. This is accompanied by an advert for a Workers Power pamphlet entitled ‘Lesbian & Gay Liberation: A Trotskyist Strategy’.

The last page has an article on Socialism and Black Liberation and Malcolm X which argues that:

Black separatism and nationalism, as we have seen, will not provide the answer [to Black liberation]. The only way to combat racism is for the masses of black workers and oppressed to forge links with their fellow-oppressed white workers for the defeat of capitalism.

Also noted on the last page is that the IWG ‘is a member of the League for a Revolutionary Communist International (LRCI)’.

Gender Quotas … will they work? October 11, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics.

So to qualify for full State funding each Registered Party contesting the election has to field 30% female candidates. In other words Gender Quotas.
Some parties have done it with ease, for instance Labour have not issued any gender directives over candidate selection and have had only one contested convention in Dun Laoghaire. Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have issued gender directives and also added female candidates to tickets.
The question is if these additions or gendermandered candidates will actually win seats as these are the women who more than likely wouldn’t have been selected had there not been Gender Quotas. In a way it’s the success of these women, rather than the actual number of women elected that will tell us if the introduction of Gender Quotas is a success or not. Of course the success may be providing a profile for the candidate in years to come, but in reality the success will be measured by the results of the forthcoming election.

A lot will depend of the success of various parties. Labour have 7 female TD’s and if Labour doesn’t recover in the polls almost all of them would be in danger. It’s also highly unlikely that Carrie Smyth, Lorraine Higgins, Susan O’Keefe or Pamela Kearns could win seats.
Were Fianna Fail to be at their current level of support then maybe two of their female candidates Mary Butler and Margaret Murphy O’Mahony , who were both selected at conventions without gender directives, would be likely to win seats. A big shift to Fianna Fail could lead to Mary Hanafin , Mary White, Lisa Chambers, Mary Hoade, Anne Rabbitte , Fiona O’Loughlin and some others too but it would want to be a very good day for Fianna Fail to have more than five women elected.
Fine Gael currently have 11 female TDs. Olivia Mitchell is retiring. A number could also be in danger such as Aine Collins, Helen McEntee, Catherine Byrne and Michelle Mulherin. They have had quite a few gender directives at conventions. A swing to Fine Gael could possibly see them survive but its unlikely that Fine Gael will have more than 11 female TD’s in the next Dail.
Sinn Fein have 2 female TD’s with one Sandra McClellan retiring. I’m not quite sure how many gender directives there have been at SF conventions, but a good day for Sinn Fein could see two or three extra women returned for Sinn Fein.
For all the controversy Gender Quotas have caused, I suspect that the number of female TD’s could end up being down. I also think that the number of female TD’s who were selected under gender directives or added because of gender quotas, could be as little as two or three.
(Just to clarify too that I’m not a male chauvinist pig and I am broadly in favour of gender quotas)

Here’s a look constituencey by constituencey analysis.

Carlow Kilkenny -Anne Phelan of Labour is unlikely to hold on. Kathleen Funchion of Sinn Fein looks the most likely to take her seat. Depending on how the Carlow vote and FF vote goes, Carlow based Fianna Fail candidate could be elected Jennifer Murnane O’Connor replacing either Pat Deering or one of her Kilkenny based Fianna Fail colleagues. Either way probably still one female TD. No gender directives here as far as I’m aware.
Cavan -Monaghan – Redrawn and down from five seats to four. Heather Humphreys the only sitting female TD. She should hold on and could even be joined by Kathryn Reilly of Sinn Fein. FF have yet to announce who will be Brendan Smiths running mate.
Clare – No female TD since Sile DeValera retired. Likely to stay that way unless there is a huge shock with Ennis based Independent Ann Norton or Sinn Feins Noeleen Moran being elected.
Cork East – Sandra McLellan of Sinn Fein is a current TD but is retiring. Although AAA-PBP have a female candidate and Fianna Fail may add one on gender grounds, it’s highly likely that this constituency will return no female TD.
Cork North Central -Kathleen Lynch of Labour is supposedly in trouble . No other obvious female candidate that could take a seat.
Cork North West – A 3 seater with Aine Collins of Fine Gael the only female TD. Of the two FG TD’s She would probably be the more vulnerable.An Independent like John Paul O’Shea could take her seat. No other females likely to take a seat.
Cork South Central drops from 5 to 4 seats. No female TD’s at present and with Simon Coveney, Jerry Buttimer, Michael Martin, Michael McGrath, Ciaran Lynch as well as Sinn Feins Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire all in the hunt, it’s highly unlikely that we will have a female TD here.
Cork South West – Currently no female TD. Margaret Murphy O’Mahony of Fianna Fail and Rachel McCarthy of Sinn Fein could be in with a chance here. I suspect Margaret Murphy O’Mahony has the best shot.
Donegal – The new 5 seat Donegal, has no Female TD and unless Independent Councillor Niamh Kennedy causes a huge shock unlikely to have any female TD in the 32nd Dail either.

Dublin Central – 3 seats down from 4 in 2011. Currently two female TD’s in Maureen O’Sullivan and Mary Lou McDonald . Fianna Fail under a gender directive selected Mary Fitzpatrick. Éilis Ryan is running for The Workers Party. It’s going to be a very competitive constituency but you would assume Mary Lou is safe. Maureen O’Sullivan may be in trouble but she will pick up transfers. Probably no change in the number of female TD’s.
Dublin Mid West -Four seater with Joanna Tuffy of Labour and Frances Fitzgerald of Fine Gael. Depending on how Labour do Tuffy could be vulnerable. Anne-Marie McNally could be a surprise for the Social Democrats. Lorraine Hennessy of The Workers Party is also running.
Dublin Fingal– Clare Daly the only sitting female TD. Louise O’Reilly of Sinn Fein was selected (I’d imagine a gender directive here) and presumably with gender in mind Lorraine Clifford Lee was added to the ticket by Fianna Fail. An Independent Roslyn Fuller is also running. Would take a massive shift to Sinn Fein for O’Reilly to be elected.
Dublin Bay North – Currently no female TD. Deirdre Heney was selected at the convention by FF, Stephanie Reagan was selected as part of a gender directive by Fine Gael, Denise Mitchell was selected (along with a male candidate) by Sinn Fein. We will also have Averil Power running here. There could be three female TD’s returned or there could be none.
Dublin North West – Roisin Shortall currently a TD here, likely to hold on. Cathleen Carney Boud was added to the ticket by Sinn Fein (presumably with gender in mind). She may take a seat here.
Dublin Bay South– Renua leader Lucinda Creighton currently a TD here. Kate O’Connell was selected by Fine Gael here under a gender directive. Glenna Lynch running for The Social Democrats here and again may surprise. Annette Mooney is running for AAAPBP.
Dublin Rathdown – Olivia Mitchell is a current TD here but is retiring. Josepha Madigan was selected here by Fine Gael as part of a gender directive. Mary White was selected at the convention by Fianna Fail. Sorcha Nic Cormaic of Sinn Fein, Catherine Martin of the Greens and Nicola Curry of AAAPBP also run. A hard one to call but Madigan, White or Martin will be in the running for a seat.
Dublin South Central – Joan Collins (UL) and Catherine Byrne (FG) both sitting TDs. Marie Devine was added to the ticket by Sinn Fein again I’m assuming due to her gender. Brid Smith of AAAPBP and Fianna Fails Catherine Ardagh (who was selected at a gender specific convention) will also contest here. Smith should get in but may be at the expense of Collins.
Dublin South West- No female TDs at present. Sarah Holland of Sinn Fein, Pamela Kearns of Labour, Independents Katherine Zappone and Deirdre O’Donovan will contest here as will Anne Marie Dermody and Karen Warren of Fine Gael. Karen Warren was added to the ticket presumably on both gender and geographical grounds. Dermody or Zappone would probably have the best chance of taking a seat here.
Dublin West Ruth Coppinger of AAAPBP and Joan Burton are currently TDs here. Catherine Noone was selected by Fine Gael (I think there was a gender directive here) and Lorna Nolan will be running as an Independent. Unlikely to see an additional female elected, indeed Burton may be under pressure to retain her seat.
Dun Laoghaire Mary Mitchell O’Connor current Fine Gael TD. Maria Bailey was added to the Fine Gael ticket here (presumably with gender in mind). Carrie Smyth was selected by Labour. Mary Hanafin was added to the ticket by Fianna Fail (again presumably with gender in mind). Carol Hunt is running as an Independent. We could end up with an additional female TD here.

Galway East -No female TD here. Anne Rabbitte was selected under a gender directive by Fianna Fail. Lorraine Higgins is running for Labour and Annemarie Roche is running for Sinn Fein. Rabbitte has a chance here.
Galway West – Currently no female TDs. Independent Catherine Connolly lost out by 17 votes in 2011 so she has a chance. Hildegarde Naughten was selected to run for Fine Gael, Mary Hoade was selected by Fianna Fail and of course Independent Fidelma Healy-Eames will be running too.
Kerry – No female TD. Norma Moriarty of Fianna Fail was added to the ticket , presumably on gender grounds, but will find it hard to win a seat.
Kildare North – Catherine Murphy currently a TD here. Réada Cronin was selected to run for Sinn Fein. Murphy will hold on and it would need a huge surge of Sinn Fein support for Cronin to win.
Kildare South -No female TD. Fiona McLoughlin-Healy was selected under a gender directive by Fine Gael, Fiona O’Loughlin was added by Fianna Fail again on gender grounds, Patricia Ryan was also selected on gender grounds by Sinn Fein. Lorraine Hayden of the National Citizens Movement is also down to contest. McLoughlin-Healy and O’Loughlin could take seats.
Laois– New 3 seater with no female TD and no female candidate yet.
Limerick City – Jan O’Sullivan of Labour is a sitting TD. Thought to be under pressure. Sarah Jane Hennelly of The Social Democrats is also running.
Limerick County– No female TD and no female candidate yet.
Offaly – Marcella Corcoran Kennedy of Fine Gael is a sitting TD. No other female candidates yet.
Longford Westmeath -Gabrielle McFadden of Fine Gael is a current TD. Longford based Independent Barbara Smyth is also running and its rumoured that Fianna Fail may add a Longford based female candidate here.
Louth – No female TD here. Imelda Munster of Sinn Fein, Mary Moran of Labour , Maeve Yore an Independent and Emma Coffey of Fianna Fail (selected under a gender directive) are the female candidates here at the moment. Munster has the best chance of a seat.
Mayo – Michelle Mulherin the only female TD here. Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fail and Rose Conway-Walsh of Sinn Fein are also running. Both have a chance. Mulherin will be vulnerable.

Meath East – Two sitting female TD’s Regina Doherty and Helen McEntee of Fine Gael. One may be vulnerable. Independent Sharon Keogan is also running. May be a drop of one female here.
Meath West -No female TD and none likely either with Tracy McElhinney of Labour the only female candidate so far.
Roscommon-Galway Again no female TD. FF have yet to select candidates. Maura Hopkins selected by Fine Gael. A former assintant of Mings ,Claire Kerrane is running for Sinn Fein. Might be a female gain here but it would be between FF and FG for a seat as Fitzmaurice and Naughten would appear safe.
Sligo-Leitrim -No female TD. Susan O’Keefe is running for Labour and Independent Councillor Marie Casserly is also running. Hard to see either being elected.
Tipperary – No female TDs. Siobhan Ambrose added by Fianna Fail here presumably on gender grounds, Marie Murphy added by Fine Gael on similar grounds. Caroline Hoffman is running as an Independent. Likely to remain with no female TDs.
Waterford – Labours Ciara Conway currently a TD here. Mary Butler of Fianna Fail was selected at a convention (without a gender directive). Mailo Power is running for Renua and Una Dunphy is running for AAAPBP
Wicklow – Anne Ferris of Labour is the only current female TD. Will be under pressure to hold on to her seat. Killiney Councillor Jennifer Cuffe will run for Fianna Fail here, although not quite a gender directive, I would imagine that her gender was a major part in her being on the ticket. Anna Doyle and Sharon Briggs running for AAAPBP here. Likely that will be no female TD here as Ferris is under severe pressure from Sinn Fein.
Wexford – No female TD. At the minute Deirdre Wadding of AAAPBP is the only female running. Fianna Fail have yet to have their convention here. If there is to be a female running for them its highly likely it will be a gender directive.


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