The Empire Strikes Back, and back, and back… The ascendency of Fianna Fáil

They abide. They abide. Seemingly nothing can detach or dislodge Fianna Fáil from their present dominance. Other parties must work with them or around them. Note the Greens, and the rather wan talk about how FF would not ‘allow’ Patricia McKenna to become a Taoiseach’s nominee. Well, that may well be true, or it may not, but that it can be stated in such blunt terms indicates who is calling the shots at the moment.
The talk before the Senate Elections that they might be in trouble, lose their working majority, etc, all so much fluff now. They’re down two seats. That’s all.

This is, in short, a lesson in pragmatism and hegemony. Forget about the wonderful morally and ethically seamless Mullingar Accord. It achieved nothing, did nothing – except for Fine Gael. Fair dues to them. They did exactly what any party should do, look to its survival and beyond that look to increasing its vote share and representation and simultaneously look to getting into power.

But Mullingar remains no more or less than a midlands town and Labour is free. So, what next?

The Labour/Sinn Féin deal over seats was good. Great even. Here was a point where we saw a small but significant step forward which worked on two fronts. Firstly it demonstrated that the parties in a secret election could work with sufficient trust to deliver a result. That’s enormously important. Secondly it demonstrated that gains can be made. But let’s not overstate this. Two seats gained for the left is nowhere near what the left should be regarding as a victory. And who was that in the Irish Times photo on Tuesday with Alex White? Why one P. Rabbitte, enfolding candidate and wife in a bear hug complete with an enormous grin – sure the deal had to be done with the hated Provo’s, but at least there was a result. A lesson learned? Yes. Well. Dealing with FG led to no bonus. Dealing with SF leads to one seat. At least something is getting through.

So what next? Another five years. The Senate looks like it will remain the home of at least some level of interesting thought, although the general impact it has will be minimised by dint of a comfortable FF working majority – in tandem with their allies.

And for those of us who caught Sam Smyth in the Irish Independent food for at least some thought when he suggested that the Labour/SF deal opens the gates to the latter party being taken on board should the Greens have the temerity to jump ship during the current Dáil. I don’t know. That the Greens would jump, or that FF would bring SF into a coalition (with Michael Lowry as well?) seems hugely unlikely. I wondered at the response of Ahern in the Dáil to SF requests for speaking time. There was a pinched and querulous tone to his comments that went well beyond his normal public persona. He really didn’t like them. But of course, he wouldn’t. Labour presents little threat to FF in the working class. But SF are a different matter. A good wind behind them and who knows how many seats they might wind up with. Better to cut them off at the knees, so to speak, and limit their public exposure. And no doubt that seemed like a clever strategy in the aftermath of the election. Problem is that SF can project themselves as the awkward squad and to an extent already have. Their message may now be clearer because it is no longer mixed within the voices of the former Technical Group. And that niche left of the Labour Party has remained stubbornly attractive to at least one sector of the Irish electorate. Perhaps Ahern may yet come to conclude that it might have been better to embrace them as the Greens and others were embraced.

In any case, the word is out that some of the taboo’s relating to SF are being discarded, and that rumour that FG actually made some contacts with SF during the post-election period (reiterated again today by Smyth) to tie up their support for a minority FG-led coalition persists.

Narratives take time to change, but generally they change incrementally.

One last thing. It was notable that Independents did quite well in the Senate Elections. Another straw in the wind for 2012? It’s impossible to tell what the shape of the political world will be in five years time. But, Ahern by pandering to the Independents has effectively given carte blanche to every disaffected FF candidate in 2012 to jump ship and point to the “McGrath” deal, the “Lowry” deal and the “Healy-Rae” deal Mk II (or is that Mk II.V?). I think that could eat into his successors votes quite considerably and could potentially leave an FF that was much more dependent upon left forces, at least those that were willing to move beyond posturing.