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Palin 2012 and the November Surprise… October 29, 2008

Posted by WorldbyStorm in US Politics.

It’s funny, reading about the supposed rifts in the Palin/McCain campaign… ooops, I mean of course the McCain/Pallin campaign I couldn’t help but be struck by the following quote from an unnamed McCain advisor who suggested she was…

“going rogue. She is a diva, she takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

“Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party.”

It’s the ‘also’ in that paragraph that gets me. That is the sort of word thrown in in a argument as a bridging device between one set of complaints and another as if none of the first set are convincing enough, or alternatively there is a bubble of anger and resentment so great that it encompasses more than the speaker can manage to communicate economically. You’ll have used or heard it yourself, the sort of ‘…and you stink, your feet stink too…also your dog is a mutt..!’ approach.

Childish? Why of course. But no wonder with the situation looking so bad for McCain. The slippage of conservatives to Obama has been quite a sight as they realise who is most likely to be the only game in town for the next four years – or longer.

Interesting too that she is establishing herself, and being given a fair assist in all this by many factions within the Republican party, as the candidate for 2012. Good for her. One wonders at the dynamic of Palin and Obama squaring up to each other. One also wonders at the nature of a Palin populist Republican party. Perhaps more right-wing an expression of US Republicanism than we’ve seen in quite a while.

As for the campaign… well, having been through some epics – haven’t we all – I’m not holding my breath. November the 5th is still just over a week away. November surprise anyone?


1. Garibaldy - October 29, 2008

Hmmm. As a fan of the ‘Also’ device myself, I feel chastened!

Palin has no hope of becoming the dominant figure in the Republican party without getting her ass to Washington. Slugger had a link to Gavin Esler’s Newsnight email wondering about the accuracy of the polls in the US. He might well be right. I wonder is there a tendency to lie to the pollsters to appear more moderate as happens in NI.

And as for Obama. If I were someone who’d put a lot of faith in him, I’d be worried by the endorsement of people like Paul Wolfowitz.


2. CL - October 29, 2008

Interesting piece by Jane Mayer on Palin in the New Yorker:
‘Upon being elected governor, Palin began developing relationships with Washington insiders…..
Yet Palin has routinely turned to members of Washington’s Old Guard for help.’-
If the polls are right and the Republicans lose big Palin might have a future. Lets hope she does become the leader of the Republicans: that should ensure their minority status.


3. CL - October 29, 2008

But then maybe Palin is a socialist.
“we’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.”-Sarah Palin


4. D. J. P. O'Kane - October 29, 2008

There was a comment on Sadlyno.com that while Bush was surrounded by people who knew how to keep him in line, and who were prepared to tell him ‘no’ when needed, Palin has consistently surrounded herself with yes-men and yes-women. You have to be particularly gifted – omniscient even – to do that and still clamber to the top of the greasy pole. . .


5. EWI - October 29, 2008

One also wonders at the nature of a Palin populist Republican party.

Expect lots more religious nuttery (Palin is a Pentecostal), anti-poor (and anti-black) policies and environmental irresponsiblity.

For those who will point out that there’s plenty of this already from the modern GOP; A Palin leadership would it’ll be on open display and endorsed by the ‘respectable’ Republican leadership for the first time (not even Bush will unequivocally endorse this stuff straight out).


6. WorldbyStorm - October 29, 2008

Me too Garibaldy… 😦

CL, interesting and useful background info on Palin. That said, Alaska does have curiously socialistic features which might explain why the Libertarians do so well up there!

Last person I can think of like that D.J.P. with yes-men and women was a boss I had. His companies sank.


7. WorldbyStorm - October 29, 2008

That’s a fairly worrying prospect EWI, and it’s not unimaginable, particularly if she is all that is left standing if the Republicans lose big this year. In that context as you say she might well be endorsed by the leadership/establishment.


8. Garibaldy - October 29, 2008

It could go either way if Mc Cain loses. Look at the Tories. They went further to the right and only put themselves beyond the pale. It has been an ostensible turn to the centre that has made them credible. I think this could well be the dynamic in the states, especially if Obama wins big – extreme right policies won’t close such a gap, and the smart ones will know it.


9. WorldbyStorm - October 30, 2008

McCain for 2012! McCain for 2012!


10. ejh - October 30, 2008

A popular variant on “also…” is “and another thing…”. Especially in pubs.

the next leader of the party

Is there such an office, and if there is, is that actually what’s meant here?


11. skidmarx - October 30, 2008

There isn’t one officially, but the presumptive next presidential candidate is thought to be such, if there isn’t one, the leader of the party caucus in Congress (Senate or House?Dunno) fills the role. A bit like having an unwritten constitution.

I could say something about McCain’s desperation in pointing to a 15 minute delay in the World Series as a result of an Obama ad. It wouldn’t take long. Towards the end of the game the commentator did use the McCain mantra that the Rays ahad the Phillies “exactly where they want them”. The Rays didn’t last another twenty minutes.

I would have thought that Palin is unlikely to be the candidate in 2012 when she’s not going to turn into an intellectual challenge to Obama, and if they lose badly this time and Mr. Hussein and his terrorists pals haven’t quite ushered in the End Times, they’ll need a candidate who can give that a go.


12. Republicannibal - November 5, 2008

Well Palin surely is ambitious letting known her ambitions before the election was even over. I stumbled upon this hilarious video, LMFAO:

Et tu, Palin? Palin 2012 which really says it all:

Poor McCain, she went out to field dress a donkey and fleeced an elephant.


13. WorldbyStorm - November 5, 2008

A counter thought is that McCain did about as well as any Republican could this year given the political circumstances and Obama. So perhaps even the Palin pick wasn’t that big an issue.


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