Another weekend… another poll! Red C in the Sunday Business Post have no good news for Fianna Fáil… April 26, 2009Posted by WorldbyStorm in European Politics, European Union, Irish Politics, Uncategorized.
Yep, it’s the Red C Sunday Business Post poll, the details of which aren’t posted on the SBP site until late this afternoon.
And it’s not good reading for Fianna Fáil now only weeks away from meeting the electorate. FF has dropped five points to 23%. Fine Gael has gone up two to 33% and Labour is up two to 19%.
So, not quite a red dawn then for the left. Even though Sinn Féin have clawed an extra percentage point to their support to 8% and the Greens, as ever in defiance of the laws of political gravity remain on 7%. Let’s be generous. Let’s say that we can combine those figures on the left into a bloc. The results are – remarkably – that the ‘left’ in its broadest definition actually has 34%, just ahead of FG and well ahead of Fianna Fáil. Indeed think about it. Only four points separate FF and Labour. Just four.
Okay. That’s the good news. The bad news is that this is just a poll and a General Election, the whinging of a certain former Junior Minister apart (and wasn’t it entertaining to see how Stephen Collins tried to tangentially imply that essentially fatuous comments about the public sector were in some part responsible for his downfall – and no mention of the Junior Minister’s own remarkable employment scheme for the public sector either), ain’t going to happen any time soon. Although. Although. It does look as if medium term damage has been done to Fianna Fáil in terms of perceptions of its competence.
Good news too for Enda Kenny. His position as leader of Fine Gael seems all but assured for the next while.
And what of Labour? Well, 19% isn’t bad at all. But it isn’t Spring Tide territory. So a lot more to do.
As regards the European Elections Libertas are on 2%. No doubt a result of the elites attempting to stifle a genuinely new and radical voice (or is it voices… we await the policy document). As RTÉ says this:
…leaves the party with a lot of work to do in the next six weeks.
No doubt, though, the Chairman has contingency plans…
It’s the detail on the other parties which is particularly interesting. The Green Party is up 3% on 2004 at 7%. Sinn Féin is down 3% at 8%. Independents are down 7% from 17%. Fine Gael are up 4% at 32%, Fianna Fáil improve very slightly on their party support at 25% down from 42%. And Labour is doing well up 6% at 17%. Still time left for that to change, but perhaps not substantially. Incidentally worth noting an intriguing interchangeability in the FF/Labour vote with Labour slightly behind on the Europeans in it’s national poll share 17% as against 19% and Fianna Fáil slightly ahead by… two percentage points – 25% as against 23%. Which would tentatively suggest that the FF vote is indeed overlapping with the Labour vote.
And Lisbon itself? A 2:1 majority in favour with only 14% undecided.
Meanwhile, note the sort of voices that are epitomised by the following letter in the Irish Times on Friday…
Madam, – My wife and I have left Ireland and moved to London – not because I couldn’t get work (we had a good salary between us – both with degrees and in our early 30s), but because we were not prepared to struggle for the rest of our (comparative) youth under a punishing tax regime while public services collapsed and the public sector remained untouched. I am old enough to remember most of the 1980s and I do not want to bring my children up in the same horrendous economic environment.
Ireland’s economic situation is being closely watched here and no one understands why the public sector is immune. Here in the UK the public sector faces job cuts when the economy declines – just like the private sector.
I’ll be back to Ireland when the place sorts itself out, although I’m not hopeful – the basic lesson that you can’t tax your way out of a recession has simply not been learned.
We need a new Thatcherite political figure to stand up to the unions and the cossetted sections of the Irish economy. The view from here is that this person is coming – and his name is the IMF. – Yours, etc,
“Punishing tax regime”? “Public service collapsing”? “Public sector untouched”?
“Thatcherite political figure”…
Such cognitive dissonance in one so (comparitively) young. And no sense that to have good public services they might just have to be paid by our still far from ‘punishing’ tax regime.
And as ever the call for salvation in the shape of someone who would inflict ‘pain’… But not, as can be seen, on them.