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And so it continues… that latest poll… part 1 May 29, 2009

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.

I’ll parse this out in greater detail over the day, but that’s a mighty fine poll we see in the Irish Times this morning. And mighty intriguing given that I’ve been hearing that on the ground that there is something of a (whisper it) swing in sentiment back to Fianna Fáil.

Well, it sure isn’t reflected in the headline figures from Fianna Fáil et al…

That party remains mired at 20% – down 1%. Fine Gael is on 36% – down 2%, the Labour Party is on 23% up 3%, Sinn Féin is on 8% – down 1%, the Green party is on 3% – holding steady and Independents are on 10% – up 1%.

What to say?

Well, look at the satisfaction for the Government and the Taoiseach.

There is some consolation for the coalition in the fact that the satisfaction rating for the Government and the Taoiseach has risen a little over the past two weeks after plummeting to record lows in the last poll.

The Government’s rating is up 2 points to 12 per cent while Mr Cowen’s is up 3 points to 21 per cent. Green Party leader, John Gormley is also up 2 points to 27 per cent.

12% for the Government. I wouldn’t be breaking out the champagne. At least not quite yet.

And yet… look also at the following:

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny sees his rating drop by 2 points to 31 per cent. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular political figure although he has dropped 2 points to 49 per cent while Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams is down 1 point to 33 per cent.

Interesting that as we draw closer to actual voting the trend is very slightly downwards.

This isn’t going to save the governments bacon, this isn’t chickens coming home to… er… roost…not at all, but… perhaps those reports I’m hearing aren’t so far off the mark. It’s going to be disastrous for Fianna Fáil, and the Greens will do well to see only minor losses. But, is it going to be utterly or only somewhat disastrous?

For Labour this may well be quite good news, something to break their run of less good luck since the announcement that George Lee was contesting Dublin South.

Let’s see some more raw data…


1. Damian O'Broin - May 29, 2009

… the Dublin figures are interesting:
LAB 26
FG 24
FF 12

and that’s core support, rather than excluding undecideds.

So only a third of the Dublin vote going to the civil war parties


2. anthony bosco oneill - May 31, 2009

I guess damien doesnt think SF is any kind of party or have they been erased from the history books. 10% in dublin as a whole and since they are not as popular as labour in the South County and Fingal you will find them running at around 18 to 20% in the DCC area.

SF will be the third largest party on the city council and if they get a repeat of there 2004 vote in Dublin central are favourites there as well.


3. Damian O'Broin - June 1, 2009

I only didn’t mention SF because the Irish Times didn’t in that piece. It’d be great if SF were the 3rd largest party of the Council. Better if they were 2nd largest.


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