The Polls… Volatile… too volatile. December 2, 2010Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, Sinn Féin, The Left.
Just to add to the thoughts in the comments here…
The Red C Poll for the Irish Sun shows Fianna Fáil on 13%, a drop of 3% on the last poll almost two weeks ago.
Fine Gael are on 32% per cent, down one, while Labour are also down three to 24%.
The Greens remain unchanged, while support for Sinn Féin has jumped by five points to 16%, putting them in third position.
Independents and others have also seen a rise in support of three points.
Assuming this poll was conducted property, and what reason do we have to believe it was not, Red C being a reputable polling company, the result is interesting on three counts.
Firstly this is the poll subsequent to the EU/IMF intervention. Now we know, at least to some extent, what that intervention has meant in terms of the Irish polity. Because…
…secondly there goes FF, dipping yet lower. 13 per cent, much more of this and we’re into single figures territory. Of course those of a more cynical bent amongst us will wonder why we’re not there already. But in fourth place – that’s remarkable.
Thirdly the rise of Sinn Féin and the apparent stalling of Labour. Let’s not make too much of the latter. I and others have argued for a long time now that the LP figures appeared overstated. Mid 20s seemed a more likely level for that party, and what do we see? Mid-20s. Perhaps disappointing for them. Perhaps not.
But the former dynamic is what is of particular interest. Clearly some of that FF vote has gone to SF. Not a huge amount, but sufficient when added to that some of the LP vote.
What does this represent? Perhaps a certain fatigue with the LP, although that too shouldn’t be overstated. Perhaps evidence that far from the arrival of one G. Adams in the Southern polity being a negative that in fact it has given extra emphasis to SF particularly and more importantly in tandem with Pearse Doherty in the news.
So SF is in the news, SF has a much more pointedly critical profile in regard to the orthodoxy on the financial and economic crisis than the LP and SF can look to recent success both legally and…
Of course all this remains volatile. But volatile within limits and constraints. It really does look as if there is an FF vote that has decamped leftwards but is not entirely sold on the LP and will not go to FG (that has implications for transfers at the election- not huge implications, but some nonetheless). The chances of FF grabbing them back seem slim to none, not least because next up – the Budget.
A perfect storm for SF, a perfect nightmare for Fianna Fáil.
Keep in mind though the Independents figure which remains on the high side. I’d still think there’s some FF support hiding out there. But… all in all a further bit of good news for SF.
At this rate they’ll start winning seats… what, what’s that you’re saying?