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A poll, another poll… December 18, 2010

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.
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Okay, many thanks to sonofstan for the heads up. But yes, we’ve got another poll, this one from tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post. No doubt IELB/AK will be along to give a low-down on it, but the headline figures are interesting enough in themselves.

Support for Fianna Fail stands at 17%, while Fine Gael has gained one point to 34% since the last Sunday Business Post Poll at the end of November.

Labour has slipped four points to 23%, while the Greens are down one to 2%. There are gains for Sinn Fein, up three points to 14% and Independents and Others are also up by two to 10%.

Main point, this is in or around the IT/Ipsos MRBI poll during the last week so both are now more or less in agreement.

First up, no gloom round FG way, one suspects, with that very healthy figure. Rumours of Kenny’s departure may be premature. The LP figure seems to be ‘truthy’, as the term has it 😉 . Good, but perhaps indicative of a settling effect well short of the heights scaled in the fairly recent past. The SF figure is equally truthy, but crucially seeing them in the mid-teens which they need to be to have a sniff of over 10 TDs. But on these figures they’ll be fairly pleased too. And the Indo/Others result is good too, a lot of Indo/Others will be feeling that little bit more optimistic tonight.

The GP? This is terrible for them. In conversation on here yesterday with CMK we were discussing how the GP’s departure (slight return) from Government has done them no good at all. Nothing. No bounce. Perhaps the opposite to be honest. And at this point it is hard to see them retaining any seats, well, perhaps one. And it’s even harder to see them doing anything at all that could change that for the better.

And FF. Sub-20 per cent yet again. Even if, as I think both IELB/AK and myself have been arguing for a while now, this increases up to 20 per cent during an election campaign – an big ‘if’ in and of itself, they’re toast in so many constituencies and as Jim Monaghan pointed out to me yesterday in five years time a most interesting dynamic kicks into effect where surviving FFers do what many Labour TDs have done for years (understandably in some respects given the electoral structure we have), hold on tightly to what they have and do little enough to assist running mates. And remember, if FF is sub-30 seats in the next Dáil that dynamic will be particularly apparent and the difficulties intrinsic to jumping up much above 40 in one electoral cycle will be all too apparent.

This is sea-change territory and no mistake.

That the political outcomes of the election are, however, much more predictable, conservative FG-led government, is unfortunately not sea-change territory. How the left deals with that will be educative.

Comments»

1. Red C Poll: December | Stephen Spillane - December 18, 2010

[…] A poll, another poll… (cedarlounge.wordpress.com) […]

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2. Pope Epopt - December 19, 2010

I’m not sure which of the plethera of polls this data is from, but I find it more interesting than party political standings:

1) 2/3rds thought ‘measures taken to reduce the deficit were unfair.
2) Only 38% thought FG/Lab would have done better than FF/Glasraí in handling the financial crisis
3) EU membership in general down 10% to 69%
4) Anti-EU sentiment up to 53% in SF and doubled among the poor.

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Pope Epopt - December 19, 2010

That should have been 3) Support for EU membership…

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WorldbyStorm - December 19, 2010

That last is a very interesting one. Perhaps counterintuitive or perhaps not.

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3. Jonathan - December 19, 2010

On the subject of polls, yesterday’s Irish Times poll on the EU/IMF bailout was a wonderful example of a misleading headline. “Majority support bailout”, it said. The figures were: 51% said they welcomed it; 37% said they opposed it; and 12% said they didn’t know (rounded down, that’s 5 for, 4 against, and 1 unsure). It’s a pretty wafer-thin majority; they could have written: “Barely half of Irish people support the bailout” or “Five out of ten Irish people support the bailout, but four out of ten oppose it” or “Irish people almost equally split on bailout deal”. But then it wouldn’t be The Irish Times, I suppose…

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WorldbyStorm - December 19, 2010

That’s very tight indeed. 51 per cent.

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sonofstan - December 19, 2010

It’s such a weird question though, especially considering the way the bailout has been presented: the government has been pushing the TINA line so hard, that asking people if they ‘support’ it is liking asking them if they ‘support’ the snow – they know they don’t like it, but they take it as a fact to be dealt with, not an object of preference.

If the opposition(s) could begin to put a credible – and explicable – case for rejecting it, that didn’t spook people, those figures might change. A lot.

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