Open thread on the Election results as they come in and that Exit Poll… February 26, 2011Posted by WorldbyStorm in Irish Politics.
I’m converting this into an open thread on results as they come in. As regards the Exit Poll, read on…
Well well well. I shouldn’t have let my innate caution be swayed by rising poll numbers towards the end of the campaign for Fine Gael, for if the RTÉ exit poll is correct, and usual caveats apply given that national figures won’t map precisely onto local contests then FG settled back into the mid-range of the 30s. And that implies that all the super-heated chatter about FG getting up to 80 seats has been very very wide of the mark.
…the poll predicts that Fine Gael will get 36.1% – the party’s best result since November 1982, but some way short of what it would need for an overall majority.
Labour is in second place on 20.5%, which would be its best ever share of the vote. The party is ahead of Fine Gael in Dublin.
Fianna Fáil support is put at just 15.1%, by far its worst ever General Election result, and signalling an electoral wipeout.
Sinn Féin support is put at 10.1%, again a record, while the Greens are on 2.7%, which could see the party save some seats.
Independents and Others get the support of 15.5% – a very high figure, though it may be spread quite thinly given the number of candidates, and where those votes transfer could be crucial to the final outcome.
Dismal for Fianna Fáil. Not as bad as it might have been for the Labour Party – sorry, let me amend that, it’s an excellent result for the LP by any measure and still ahead in Dublin. This could be interesting. Actually quite good for Sinn Féin, they may wonder about that LP Dublin figure, remarkably good for Independents, almost stunningly so given that they collectively with smaller parties had less than half that figure in the last election, but with the problem that transfers will tell all and is that a hint of good news for the Green Party?
Looks like a Fine Gael/Labour coalition is very firmly set to be the political future here.
ADDENDUM; Adding a bit of further caution I’d imagine it’s highly likely that both the LP and SF figures will settle just a little more. We’ll see.