The Left vote totals and a few other stats. February 28, 2011
Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.Tags: 2011 election, The Left
trackback
Just a brief few stats that may be of interest
The ULA polled 59,423 votes getting around 2.7% of the vote nationally and winning five seats.
(Socialist Party 26,770 , People Before Profit 21,551, Declan Bree and Seamus Healy 11,102)
The Workers Party polled 3,056 0.1% of the Vote
Left of Centre Independents polled 55145 votes around 2.5% winning six seats.
(To the List posted last Monday I added in Brian Markham, Sean Connolly Farrell, Robin Wilson, Mick Wallace, Veronica Cawley and one or two others that polled around 200 votes)
(Catherine Connolly may yet win in Galway West)
So over 5% of the vote nationally went Left other than to Sinn Fein or Labour. (that’s assuming I managed to include every Left candidate)
That is around half the vote Labour got in 2007.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
The WP vote would suggest that even in Waterford they are gone electorally-time to rethink? The victorious ULA candidates have long records of doing the work locally. Hope that those who were first-time out, like the young man in Limerick, will realise that if they want a seat in five years time, the work starts now.
Delighted over all. Pity Larry O’Toole did not make it.
LikeLike
Yes, the Workers Party seems to be reviving a bit in terms of activity – you see them in greater numbers on demonstrations, Look Left gives them more of a profile – but in electoral terms its difficult to see where they go from here.
As for taking a seat in 5 years, for most of the first time ULA candidates their next electoral focus will be the locals!
LikeLike
5 seats of 2.7% means ULA must have been strongly transfer friendly.
That would be an encourgaing figure for them
LikeLike
Not so much enormous transfer friendliness as strong geographical concentration. Only Boyd Barrett of the five elected was heavily reliant on transfers, it was clear that the rest were going to take a seat as soon as the first count results were in.
LikeLike
Looking forward to Fintan O’Toole’s take. He was moaning about how the voters were going to choose FG over FF last week, when FG were committed to the IMF etc, but couldn’t bring himself to note that Labour were going to be FG’s partners. He should be delighted at the left vote, but he hates Shinners and Trots so much he will be struggling…
LikeLike
And seeing as he promised so much pre-election but failed to deliver, his take will be interesting.
LikeLike
on WP was not the fellow in Waterford Halligan WP or former WP?
LikeLike
Halligan was ex WP.
LikeLike
Fintan will need to adapt and grow like many others Terry.
He wants from Labour what Labour wont give. certainly wont give in a coalition led by FG
LikeLike
So that’s, what, 5.2% of the vote and… let’s see… 6.6% of the seats. What kind of crazy proportionately representative system is that anyway?
LikeLike
Talking of representation, I notice your link is not to Gaping Silence….
LikeLike
Oops.
LikeLike
The Left (I include Labour and Sinn Fein) gained up to 35 seats. This would include 5 ULA & then independents who when push comes to shove would be “of the left” – Thomas Pringle, Maureen O’Sullivan, Mick Wallace, Catherine Murphy (former WP/DL/Lab), John Halligan (former WP).
This is a massive gain in seats for the Left. Fine Gael & The Right gained about 18-20. Stephen Donnolly in Wicklow I assume will sneak in for the Profit Before People to join Shane Ross.
I agree with the point about Fintan O’Toole. He’s scrambled to distance himself from the ULA, hates Sinn Fein & will probably center his criticism on Labour.
He was due to stand on a platform of separating bank debt from sovereign debt. This is essentially SF/ULA policy but wasn’t good enough for him.
LikeLike
“What kind of crazy proportionately representative system is that anyway?”
It is very near compared top first past the post.
Remember the last unsuccessful candidate votes and accumulated preferences are not represented.
LikeLike
Yes, it’s a tough one – although if the constituencies are big enough it shouldn’t be a huge problem. Not nearly as big as under AV, say, for example.
LikeLike
Aside from Healy and Higgins, who were shoo-ins, I think the ULA apparatus and concomitant exposure helped their other candidates over the line. This is probably best illustrated by the performance of some candidates outside the camp; the WP vote was pretty dismal, and I was very surprised that Cieran Perry fared so poorly (himself and Steenson in DC barely garnered 1,500 votes between them.)
I said about a year ago that the Left would take three or four seats in this election, and that Collins would make it for PBP, with Boyd Barrett just missing out. Glad to be wrong there. Collins’s performance was pretty spectacular. She held her own and Brid Smith’s votes from 2007, and added another 2,500 on top.
LikeLike
I was very surprised that Cieran Perry fared so poorly (himself and Steenson in DC barely garnered 1,500 votes between them.)
Perhaps part of the problem is that Perry is very much localised in Cabra and Steenson in North Strand, neither with an organisation (none in Perry’s case, regenerating in Steenson’s case with the WP) or a big enough profile that attracts support across the rest of the constituency.
LikeLike
I was disappointed with Perry’s vote too. Didn’t realize he has no organisation. That would help to explain it.
LikeLike
Perry had over 25 election workers and what might be called a fairly full time staff including Aido Perry, Joe Mooney and Mags Glennon. Saw historian Brian Hanley working for him too. He would seemed to have been squeezed by Labour and SF.
LikeLike
Just wondering. That was an organisation for the election. Is there a Perry-linked organisation in ordinary times?
LikeLike
Sorry, what I meant was no identifiable organisation in the public mind like SF, PBPA, SP, WP.
LikeLike
The Left vote altogether was quite something. Harry Browne in Counterpunch was estimating it to be about 42% of the electorate. Yeah, this is counting Labour to be leftwing etc. But still, this is THE significant part of the election, and a shame that the story is being spun in the international media that the electorate voted for the same old same old. But I suppose this itself is a function of the fragmentation of the Irish Left.
Btw, while the thanks at the election coverage were coming in an earlier post, can I also add to them. Living in England at the mo, cedarlounge was a lifeline!
LikeLike
Thanks David L.
LikeLike
A nasty anonymous piece in ‘The Phoenix’ on 14th January asserted that of the UAL candidates “only three will likely make it into the Dail – one SP (Higgins), one SW (Boyd Barrett) and Healy”.
The odious Michael McGrath has been silent, or justifiably silenced, since the results. A post on Saturday from him on politics.ie said ‘goodbye RBB’ and he “forecast 3 seats for ULA : Higgins, Healy and Daly.”
LikeLike
Hmmm… interesting. The antagonism to RBB was a sight to behold. And to be honest I thought he was pretty sound in his attitude throughout the campaign. Anyhow, great result for ULA (and a rural based TD as well…).
LikeLike
I recall being surprised at the dubious decision of the ULA to run in Cork NW, but to be fair, absolutely vindicated. In fact it was a pretty wierd election there generally. SF on their first run polled some 3,300 votes or 7pc, anne foley of the ULA took some 1500.
For SF to poll that is extraordinary, and likewise the ula to poll that, but for both to poll as well it nigh on incredible. Weirdest of all is that where Sf cleaned up in the southern part by the large commuter town of ballincollig, foley seemed to pick up votes v often in the extrememly rural and conservative north.
Anyone who has ever been to Meelin Liscarrol newmarket or kanturk will appreciate what a serious achievement it was to poll that well, for both candidates. V. encouraging
LikeLike
That kind of an election, red and green shoots sprouting up all over the place.
LikeLike
[…] post here raises some troubling thoughts. As he notes the current left of Labour and Sinn Féin vote is around […]
LikeLike
[…] though, and Robert L notes here yesterday that Harry Browne had an useful piece on Counterpunch on the rising share of the left, […]
LikeLike
‘A nasty anonymous piece in ‘The Phoenix’ on 14th January asserted that of the UAL candidates “only three will likely make it into the Dail – one SP (Higgins), one SW (Boyd Barrett) and Healy”.’
There is nothing like the zeal of the convert D_D. still at least the Phoenix editor should be happy with SF’s results. But yeah, the ULA won’t be getting much positive coverage in our leading satirical magazine.
LikeLike
If you look only at the result where ULA candidates actually ran, and compare their vote with what you might call the “broad left”* vote in each constituency, its quite interesting.
The average first preference share of the “broad left” in each fo the constituencies contested by ULA candidates was 42%, which is not far off what was being reckoned by WBS nationally. The average ULA candidate got 6.3% of the vote where they contested, and their average share of the “broad left” vote was 14%.
Its not a profound conclusion, granted, since the “left of the left” ought to do better in areas that are more left wing overall, but it is quite illustrative. Where the ULA candidate won, they pulled no less than 20% of the broad left vote, which itself was not less than 35% of the overall vote. For example, in Tipp South the “broad left” vote (WUAG+Lab=SF) was just over 36%, but Healy dominated that sector with almost 60% of that vote.
Blisset rightly highlighted the vote Anne Foley got in Cork NW, not a large vote in absolute terms, but in the context of the constituency, she got quite close to the average ULA vote as a proportion of the “broad left” vote (14%/14%)Thats quite a performance in an area where you would imagine even voting Labour is still seen as a somewhat subversive act. Makes me think ULA candidates in certain contexts may have been able to tap a new group of left voters, as distinct from just absorbing an older left constituency.
(“Broad left” being Labour, SF, ULA, WP, independent former members of those parties, and any identifiable “left independents”. I left out the Greens, but in most places it only has a marginal impact on the numbers ;-))
LikeLike