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The first poll of the new Dáil… April 9, 2011

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Economy, Irish Politics, The Left.

As noted by Blissett today, there’s a RedC poll out. Here’s the RTÉ overview…

The poll shows support for Fine Gael at 39%, Labour is at 18%, Fianna Fáil at 16%, Sinn Féin at 11% and Independents and Others are at 16%.

Others isn’t quantified, but I’m presuming not alone does it include the ULA but also the GP…

And let’s reconsider the Election results in terms of First Preference…

FG: 36.1
LP: 19.4
FF: 17.4
SF: 9.9
ULA: 2.6
New Vision: 1.1
Independent: 11.8
GP: 1.8

Happy days for FG/Labour. Though perhaps the following should give them pause for thought…

However, 41% said they are angry that the Government is not burning the bondholders, 33% disagree and 26% said they did not know.

Angry is an interesting term. Who precisely are that 41%?

More on this next week.


1. irishelectionliterature - April 9, 2011

A few observations on the poll. On Fine Gael are doing well (this despite the Moriarty Tribunal findings) and although early days yet a lot of peoples regard for Enda Kenny has increased. Simple things such as the minibus to the Park, the small numbers of Ministers that traveled abroad for St Patricks Day (and spent frugally compared to their predecessors, not too many 5 star hotels nor Limos between terminals) as well as Obamas visit have gone down well.
The banks/ bondholders issue is a huge one and they look as if they are pinning their hopes initially on an interest rate drop. However it looks as if they have a plan for the banks (ableit one I disagree with) which is something FF didn’t have.


2. Tomboktu - April 10, 2011

I wonder if the news that Michael Noonan has a financial interest in German government bonds would have changed the rise in FG in that poll if the news had emerged earlier in the week.

And I wonder if any of the opposition parties will try to use that to inflict any damage.


3. WorldbyStorm - April 10, 2011

I suspect that the new opposition has at least some within who won’t hesitate if the opportunity presents itself.

Re Kenny’s poll ratings, indeed the entirety of the poll, isn’t it still just too early in the lifetime of the government to predict how things are going to go? It’s not that the honeymoon is necessary still going on but rather that it will take time to get a handle on it and so far not enough time has passed.


4. Paddy M - April 10, 2011

A couple of points:

1) The improvement in FG’s rating may not actually be all it appears. RedC have consistently overstated FG’s support over the last few years – they had them on 40% in the last poll before the election, and on every occasion over the last two years where RedC and MRBI polled at the same time, RedC’s figure for FG was consistently ahead of the corresponding MRBI figure by between 2 and 4%. (Prior to the 2009 elections, MRBI had been over-adjusting their raw figures.)

2) Generally, a lot of people have switched off politics for the moment. Whatever about the revelations of the Moriarty Tribunal (or of Noonan being a small-scale bondholder), the current arrangement are at least not the same lying incompetents who got us into this mess and that counts for something in public perception. There’s also a belief that there’s nothing much that the current government can do; the country is now beholden to the “kindness of strangers” – strangers who don’t seem well-disposed to Ireland in the first place.


WorldbyStorm - April 10, 2011

Excellent points and I think they’re both very valid. Overstatement of FG sounds about right even if it’s only fractional, and there’s also the issue that so far not enough time has elapsed for those who voted for them to get antsy.

Re 2. All too true I fear.


Tomboktu - April 10, 2011

The improvement in FG’s rating may not actually be all it appears. RedC have consistently overstated FG’s support over the last few years

I think these are different points, Paddy M. Red C may consistently overstate the level of support for FG, so the actualy level shown in today’s poll would be incorrect. However, that does not mean that there hasn’t been an increase in FG’s support (which is scary).


Paddy M - April 10, 2011

Whatever turnout filter RedC have been using to adjust their raw results was overstating FG by 3-4% in the week leading up to polling day.

Assuming that the model they’re using is still basically the same, the likely conclusion is that the increase from 36% to 39% is an artifact of the model rather than a reflection of the real world. The more likely scenario is that, for the moment, all parties are where they were on election day.


5. More on that Red C Poll… « The Cedar Lounge Revolution - April 14, 2011

[…] at all so far, indeed perhaps quite literally no change at all if we consider Paddy M’s point here: 1) The improvement in FG’s rating may not actually be all it appears. RedC have consistently […]


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