Sinn Fein and The Presidency

So time is marching on towards the Presidential Election. So far we have  Michael D., Mary Davis, Gay Mitchell and Sean Gallagher. David Norris is gone, Fianna Fail wont be fielding a candidate and assorted celebrities have ruled themselves out….. Which leaves us wondering as to the intentions of Sinn Fein.
I haven’t seen any polls which listed a Sinn Fein candidate, although one presumes that Sinn Fein will have conducted some private polling before they make their decision.
So will they take the plunge and field a candidate or sit the election out?

Personally I think they will, it has its pitfalls but with an outside chance of winning the Presidency its a risk worth taking. Not alone that but were a Sinn Fein candidate to outpoll either Mitchell or Higgins that alone would be a victory of sorts.
There have been names bandied about but if they want to win it has to be Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness or possibly even Bairbre de Brún.
Of the three de Brún is the most easily replaceable as she is an MEP. Adams winning would cause a by election in Louth which would probably end in the loss of a Dail seat and also remove him from the Dail. McGuinness is intriguing in that despite his past he is probably more popular than Adams, yet who would replace him in Stormont? (or maybe its the perfect excuse to have him move on and have a new leadership figure emerge)

I’ve heard non Sinn Fein people say that they would vote for Adams as he is ‘Statesman like’ and he has the experience in meeting World leaders and other seemingly important people. Given the scrutiny he has already been put under its unlikely that there’s much left in the closet to come out (although who knows what various intelligence services haven’t released). He was the subject of a good deal of personalised negative campaigning in Louth (examples here and here) yet still topped the poll with over 15,000 votes. In polls his personal rating is always much higher than Sinn Feins rating , so he is likely to garner considerable support from outside the party. That said further details on the Liam Adams case could damage his campaign.

So McGuinness is probably a better bet. Unlike Adams, there’s no questions as to his involvement in the IRA , hes been fairly straight up with what drove him to join the IRA and that he had a role in it. He is popular , comes across well in interviews and has a jocular side that is quite appealing. He has also through the peace process and his role as Deputy First Minister met many dignitaries and world leaders. Indeed the relationship he developed with Ian Paisley illustrates that he able to get on with almost anyone!  There has been far less bile directed at him over the years than Adams. Again who knows what may come out about him in the course  of the Campaign.

Bairbre de Brún would be a risk in that she is relatively unknown in the Republic, however she is a Dublin native. She also has no ‘baggage’ from the Troubles. In eight weeks could she charm an electorate that at the minute isn’t too enthused by the choices facing them on the ballot paper?

I’m sure some polls at the weekend will have a Sinn Fein candidate listed. Anything over 15% would be a good start to build on….